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Currency, gold and index moves and the data behind them, from the market desks the industry reads. Updated 8 Nov 2026.
US October non-farm payrolls +165K vs +65K expected Canada Employment change for October -4.7K vs 13.6K estimate. Unemployment rate 6.7%. Iran responds positively to latest mediator proposal - report November US UMich prelim consumer sentiment 51.0 vs 48.0 expected Iran reviewing proposals to curb nuclear program -...
US stock markets started strong and we saw 10% bounces in beaten-up memory stocks. It didn't last but it also didn't break down. Some notable names: MU +5.1% SNDK +3.5% INTC +7.7% SKHY +2.8% NVDA +2.8% QCOM +5.8% The hyperscalers were near flat and the indexes were higher but didn't finish at the highs. I wouldn't...
Commerzbank strategists note that Taiwan's October CPI eased to 2.33% year-on-year, below expectations but still above the Central Bank of the Republic of China's (CBC) 2% alert threshold. Meanwhile, PPI surged 19.7%, raising concerns over future consumer price pressures.
Silver (XAG/USD) price consolidates near $52.00, up a minimal 0.19% on Friday as the Greenback rallies sharply, posting strong US data. Back-to-back 'doji' candles indicate that neither buyers nor sellers are in control.
MUFG reports Indonesia's Q3 GDP growth beat expectations at 5.47% year-on-year, helped by stronger exports and solid domestic demand. Private consumption and investment remained robust, reducing the urgency for Bank Indonesia to support activity. However, lingering investor confidence issues and weak portfolio flows...
We are talking to Iran We are doing well with Iran I want Stephen Miller to run things well as chief of staff Stephen gets it, he'll do a great job I wanted to make a change It's not clear if Wiles quit or Trump 'wanted to make a change'. There isn't much of a signal on Iran but there hae been some late-day bids in...
Commerzbank's Charlie Lay and Dr. Henry Hao note that Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) held rates at 2.75% while maintaining a cautious stance. They expect a 25 bp hike in Q1 2027 and see USD/MYR consolidating within the 4.00 - 4.10 range.
White House chief of staff Susie Wiles will be leaving her post, President Trump reported. She will move over to the Trump political operation, he said. Her replacement is Stephen Miller, who Trump said is "one of my most trusted advisors". Miller was the deputy chief of staff. Bloomberg reports that Wiles resigned on...
MUFG notes Taiwan's headline inflation eased to 2.33% year-on-year in October, with core at 2.23%, both above the 2% alert level. The CBC is expected to keep its policy rate at 2.00% in December, though persistent Taiwan Dollar (TWD) weakness could tilt risks higher.
San Francisco Federal Reserve (Fed) President Mary Daly said in an interview with CNBC on Friday that the job report was good news, that the economy is solid, and that it "gives latitude to get inflation job done."
Gold price retreats after peaking at $4,106, drifting lower nearly 1% on Friday as the US employment report crushed forecasts and increased the chances that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could increase rates at the December meeting. The XAU/USD trades at $4,060 at the time of writing.
United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann see slightly stronger downward momentum in USD/CNH after the pair eased from recent highs. For the next 24 hours, they expect the Dollar to edge lower but stay above strong support at 6.6530, with resistance at 6.6720.
AUD/USD extends losses on Friday, slipping to levels last seen in late March. A firmer US Dollar (USD), weaker risk appetite amid the AI-led stock-market rout and cautious Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) guidance following this week's rate hike all contribute to the decline.
US stocks are giving back some of their gains as a report circulates that Microsoft is winding down an arrangement with Oracle for AI cloud capacity. Details on the scope and timing of any wind-down remain unconfirmed. Oracle shares are trading at $111.35 after reaching a session high of $119.70. The stock fell as low...
The US is pressing China to immediately fulfill the commitments Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping made in Busan, South Korea, in October 2025. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer raised concerns with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and stressed that further progress...
Iranian negotiators are reviewing proposals that would see Tehran curb its nuclear program, according to the Times of Israel. Iran had previously refused to put the issue on the table until its seven conditions were met. Now there appears to be a thawing on that stance, if the reporting is correct. It cites a US...
The Pound Sterling (GBP) dives nearly 0.60% against the US Dollar (USD) as a stellar US Nonfarm Payrolls report shows a solid labor market and clears the path for further tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed). At the time of writing, GBP/USD trades at 1.3371 after peaking near 1.3463.
BNP Paribas underscores India's favourable medium-term growth outlook, with the IMF lifting forecasts to 6.8% per year, but stresses significant structural constraints. The report points to a modest middle class, large informal economy, weak industrial base and labour market rigidities. It warns that without faster...
Al-Arabiya cited an Iranian source who says that Iran is responding positively to the latest proposals presented by mediators. Now Tehran is waiting for practical steps from Washington to build trust. Oil is under pressure after this report and stocks are bid. The S&P 500 is up almost 1% and the Nasdaq nearly 2%. This...
What's expected: Consensus estimate +65K (range +50K to +125K) September +29K August +133K July -10K Private consensus estimate +64K Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 4.2% vs 4.2% prior Participation rate 61.8% prior Prior underemployment U6 prior 7.6% Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +2.9% y/y vs +3.0% prior Avg...
Articles: Zcash resists crypto market selloff as network upgrade goes live. What's next? US-Iran uncertainty keeps the downside in oil limited as markets await further developments Eurozone retail sales fall 0.7% in September, signalling weakening consumer demand Risk-off wave hits Bitcoin as tech stocks lead global...
Gold (XAU/USD) trades on the back foot on Friday as stronger-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data lifts the US Dollar (USD). At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,050, down 1.20% on the day, after climbing to a two-week high of $4,146 on Thursday.
Retail sales m/m -0.7% vs -0.1% expected Prior +0.1% Retail sales y/y +0.4% vs +0.6% expected Prior +0.8% Full report Eurozone retail sales declined more than expected in September, falling 0.7% m/m. Germany recorded the largest monthly decline, with retail sales falling 2.0%. The EU-wide figure also weakened,...
US Democrats are reportedly targeting President Trump's tariffs on Canada as the first step towards rolling back parts of his administration's trade policy. Senator Wyden said there is overwhelming support for repealing tariffs on Canadian products. Meanwhile, BoC Governor Macklem said he remains optimistic about...
Nasdaq 100 suffers worst day since 2020 Magnificent 7: What are the technicals telling traders for each of those companies him WTI crude oil settles at $90.52, up 2.72% as buyers defend key support Non-farm payrolls preview: October numbers show a skew Europe Close: AI and chip liquidation drags equities lower in US,...
I spoke to Reuters earlier today about the state of markets and my comments boiled down to this: "There are two paths Trump can go down - he can double down on unpopular trade wars or he can listen to the electorate and change course," said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at investingLive. That's the crossroads we...
The Independent reports that Marco Rubio "is on resignation watch from both sides of the Atlantic in the expectation he will quit to lauch a bid to be the next US President". The report cites "senior party sources in the US and senior figures in the UK government" and notes that he was plotting his exit even before...
Articles: What Could Stop the Fed Raising Rates in December? Bank of England raises the Bank Rate to 4.00% as expected in a 9-0 vote Nasdaq futures rebound nearly 280 points. But buyers now face a crucial test Solana rallies as Republicans' midterm loss raises hopes of US-Iran war ending Oil prices tumble as...
Germany September industrial orders +4.4% vs +4.8% m/m expected Prior -10.6%; revised to -10.1% Germany September industrial orders +3.3% y/y Prior +3.2% (revised) The strong rebound in German manufacturing orders in September comes mainly from a notable recovery in the automotive industry. New orders there grew by
Bitcoin analysis after the US midterms: Bulls are back, but $82,000 could change everything 168 of 225 Nikkei stocks rise, but AI losses drag the index lower as the Topix rallies China blocks SoftBank's $5.4 billion ABB robotics deal, FT says, in blow to Son's AI push Gold jumps as oil slumps on Iran diplomacy hopes,...
A stronger trade surplus is modestly supportive for the Australian dollar, reinforcing the currency's link to commodity prices. With energy prices elevated by the Middle East conflict, Australia is better placed than many importers, as LNG and coal export earnings help cushion a rising fuel bill. The data are unlikely...
The data offer something for both sides of the BoJ debate: historically sharp cost pressures support further tightening, while slowing hiring and weaker confidence give the cautious camp ammunition. On balance, the release is unlikely to shift December pricing materially, leaving the yen more sensitive to the BoJ...
October US ISM services 54.5 vs 54.8 expected US final October S&P Global services PMI 56.1 vs 57.9 prelim US September international trade balance -105.0B vs -108.0B expected Canada Trade Balance ($C) for September +5.35B vs +4.1B estimate The biggest loser of the US elections was data centers EIA weekly US crude oil...
Perhaps the clearest takeaway from Tuesday's US midterms is that data centers are unpopular. After a short-lived construction boom, they provide little ongoing employment and drive up local energy costs. There were 41 local votes on data center curbs and 40 of them are on track to win, with margins in the 75/25%
It's largely true election loss was the result of the Iran war It was worth it You can't let Iran have a nuclear weapon I'll get along probably with Democrats If I were on the ballot we would have won We weren't able to transfer the love to candidates It would destroy Democratic Part if they impeach me Notably, JD...
House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries says Democrats will pursue legislation to stop President Trump's tariffs and bring an end to the war with Iran. He also wants to reverse Medicaid cuts and restore the enhanced Affordable Care Act tax credits, placing healthcare costs at the center of his affordability agenda....
One of the clearest messages from Tuesday's US midterm elections had nothing to do with Republicans or Democrats. It was a resounding rejection of data centers. Communities across the country voted on dozens of ballot measures involving data-center construction, zoning, moratoriums and development restrictions. Almost...
Headlines: US midterms 2026: Who would've thought that a war would be a bad idea? US futures continue to trim losses after early beatdown but AI worries linger Macro pulse: What if good news for stocks turns into bad news for the bond market? Nasdaq futures slide after Trump's midterm setback. AMD and Arista are...
Crude oil extended the selloff yesterday after Al Arabiya reported that the US and Iran had made concessions regarding the Iranian nuclear program and frozen funds, and that Washington had approved the draft of the Memorandum of Understanding. The report also added that the announcement would be made step by step and...
Eurozone October preliminary CPI +4.0% vs +4.0% y/y expected Prior +3.8% Eurozone October preliminary core CPI +2.5% vs +2.5% y/y expected Prior +2.5% Headline annual inflation in the euro area climbs to 4% in October, hitting that mark for the first time since September 2023. Now, that's a doozy for ECB policymakers....
Well, well, well. Who would've thought that starting a war might not be the greatest way to win over voters? That especially when ordinary Americans are the ones feeling the pinch and getting hit where it hurts most, that being their wallets. And now, it looks like Trump is the one paying the political price for his...
China's yuan slides to two-week low as PBOC moves to slow its rally Iran's IRGC says four tankers destroyed by mines south of Hormuz, two vessels detained Trump allies are pointing to the Iran war as the reason for the election disaster US futures slide as Democrats lead midterm count, AI data centre fears hit tech...
The joke tonight is that Trump went to Iran for regime change and he got it, only in the USA. The numbers so far are ghastly for Republicans in a huge blue wave, including multiple major upsets and a possible Senate majority so large it will be nearly impossible to reverse for 4-6 years. There is still plenty of...
The data adds to the picture of a Chinese economy still growing but struggling with weak pricing power, which helps explain why authorities are leaning on targeted support such as this week's expanded buyback lending . Falling selling prices alongside rising costs point to margin pressure for listed service companies,...
It's no longer early as US votes roll in. There is a highly statistically significant number of districts reporting now and some of them reporting completely. The numbers are showing a 10-35 point swing towards Democrats. If even the bottom of that holds, it's a huge swing towards Democrats. For illustration, betting...
The steady drift lower in the kiwi since the release suggests traders are pricing out some of the chance of a December hike rather than reacting to a one-off headline. The fall in two-year swaps supports that reading. With the RBA still leaning hawkish, the widening policy gap leaves NZD/AUD vulnerable to further...
I highlighted KY-06 as an early district to watch as a barometer of today's vote and now some real results are crossing and betting markets are moving. In Anderson County, the numbers show the Republican Alvarado leading by 19 percentage points. That's good, right? No, it's not because in the prior three House...
Carney's remarks offer modest support for the Canadian dollar, as any easing of the 50% US tariff would lift a weight on Canadian exporters and the growth outlook. The lack of a timeline limits how much a trade-deal premium can build, so USD/CAD is likely to stay more sensitive to the US midterm results and oil prices...
The miss on every major measure is likely to weigh on the New Zealand dollar and trim pricing for a December rate hike. The kiwi was already near a cycle low against the Australian dollar after last week's RBNZ hold, and the gap with a more hawkish RBA now looks set to widen. The weak jobs figures argue against...
JOLTs Job openings 7.523M vs 7.100M estimate US September factory orders +1.8% vs +1.2% expected Trump on Israel: The aid gets cut off at year-end Never tell me the odds: Prediction markets see Democrats taking control of House and Senate BOC's Macklem: There could be a need to raise the policy rate further ECB's...
Oil has been falling this week but there's a fair argument that Trump could be attempting to send false signals in order to lower oil prices ahead of the vote. Behind the scenes, the US military has been angling to be in a position to attack immediately after the midterms. The New York Times cites US officials who say...
Midterm election day continues in the United States without too much drama. All the talk of false flags and martial law on election day hasn't taken place and the polling disruptions have been minimal and certainly not widespread. Here's the schedule for when the polls close across the US. States that span two time...
The latest prediction-market prices show another modest shift toward Republicans in Senate control, while House control is largely unchanged. The latter part makes me think the movement is variance in a relatively thin market rather than a signal. In any case, the numbers are worth watching. There is all kinds of...
Reports surrounding Iran are putting the choice between diplomacy and renewed military action back in focus. The New York Times, citing sources, reports that Israel has shared intelligence with Washington asserting that Iran is considering using chemical weapons against its adversaries. The assessment has reportedly...
There are more headlines crossing suggesting positive developments in Iran-US talks, with Al-Arabiya now carrying similar headlines to the earlier ones that weighed on oil. In contrast, here is Iran security chief Mohsen Rezaei just now: America's response to Iran's rights and demands was not convincing, and they must...
Trump spoke on Fox News and Israel came up. The comments appear to be putting some downward pressure on oil, with the sense that there are some lines being drawn between the US and Israel. The market is extending that to the idea that the US will make a deal with Iran. I'm skeptical that's what Trump is really...
Prediction markets are pointing to a Democratic sweep of Congress in today's US midterm elections, with the odds of Democrats taking control of the Senate rising sharply in recent weeks. As of around 8 am ET on Tuesday, November 3, the latest prices from Kalshi and Polymarket show: House control: Democrats 94 - 95%,...
Headlines: The S&P 500 stays on the back foot amid geopolitical uncertainty as US midterm elections loom. What's next? Solana remains under pressure as markets weigh US-Iran talks, Fed risks and US midterm elections Crude oil trims losses as US strikes Iran's Qeshm Island while CIA Director calls for continued...
Switzerland October CPI +1.5% vs +1.3% y/y expected Prior +1.0% Switzerland October core CPI +0.5% y/y Prior +0.5% Swiss headline annual inflation picks up at the start of the third quarter, rising to 1.5% from 1.0% previously. Much like elsewhere around the region, higher energy prices are the main culprit in...
And round and round we go. We started the week with renewed optimism that the US and Iran might finally be inching towards a diplomatic breakthrough. That led to oil prices tumbling on Monday as hopes of a potential deal gathered momentum. But fast forward to today, and we're pretty much back where we started. Anyone...
Apple and Palantir beat earnings. Why did both stocks fall? More: RBA lifts cash rate to 4.85% in split 6-3 vote, sees inflation above 3% until late 2027 Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) 25bp rate hike, as widely expected After the Binance hack, the simple security rule regulators keep coming back to, hot vs. cold...
Economic and event calendar in Asia 03 November 2026 - RBA rate hike expected Apple and Palantir earnings preview: The numbers buyers and sellers will be watching Iran and US reportedly on verge of preliminary agreement Gold Technicals: Gold is up sharply erasing some of last week's declines. Bounces off key MA
Tehran and Washington are reportedly nearing a preliminary agreement, according to ILNA Telegram citing Al-Sharara news agency: Al-Sharara news agency reported, citing a diplomatic source aware of the intensive diplomatic moves between Tehran and Washington to reach a preliminary agreement aimed at reducing tensions,...
Tuesday's midterm elections will determine whether Republicans retain control of Congress or Democrats gain the ability to slow President Donald Trump's agenda during the final two years of his term (and cause other headaches for President Trump). The numbers are straightforward: Democrats need a net gain of three...
Iranian President Pezeshkian commented on dialogue and the war, according to ISNA: War will not be in anyone's interest, and the enemies will not be able to force us to surrender through it. The Supreme Leader has granted the government some authority on dialogue. The supplied market update reports a risk-on reaction:...
Iran's President Pezeshkian said the Supreme Leader has granted the government certain authorities regarding negotiations, according to the state-run ISNA news agency. The markets are taking this as a signal for greater flexibility and potentially strengthen the government's ability to reach a deal with the US. As a...
Headlines: US midterms 2026: Is Trump about to lose his grip on Congress? US midterms 2026: Where are Republicans most vulnerable in the battle for Congress? Crude oil opens the week lower and extends the losses as US-Iran deal hopes return. What's next? European stock market open: Stocks kick start November trading...
Ahead of election day tomorrow, Republicans are certainly feeling the pressure in judging by how the latest polls are shaping up. Earlier in the day, we've already looked at what's at stake for US president Trump and financial markets . So now, let's take a look at where exactly could Republicans lose their grip on...
Eurozone October final manufacturing PMI 52.7 vs 52.4 prelim Prior 52.9 Euro area industry activity softened slightly in October, with the headline PMI estimate touching a two-month low. The output index slumped further to 52.8 from 53.6 in September, dropping to a four-month low. Overall, it still marks a modest...
Germany September retail sales -2.0% vs +0.4% m/m expected Prior +1.3%; revised to +1.2% Germany September retail sales -2.3% y/y Prior -0.4%; revised to -0.3% Ouch. Death, taxes, and Germany economic data disappointing on expectations. It feels almost inevitable more often than not. That's a big miss on German retail...
I reckon that US president Trump might be in for a rude awakening after tomorrow. Or perhaps he is already aware of his current predicament, although I wouldn't put it past him to refuse to accept that reality. Either way, he's going to have to deal with the possibility that his grip on Congress could be slipping
Deutsche Bank stands alone with RBA hold call as 31 of 32 economists tip a hike Goldman lifts December Brent forecast to $105 on Middle East and Russia supply risks Tucker Carlson claims Trump weighing nuclear strike on Iran's Pickaxe Mountain Gold's slide to one-year low: margin calls amplified a fall driven by Fed...
The beat offers some relief after Saturday's weak official survey and may give modest support to China-sensitive assets such as the yuan, the Australian dollar and industrial metals at the start of the week. The price detail is less encouraging. Falling output and export charges driven by fierce competition point to...
The survey keeps Japan's factory sector in solid expansion while showing price pressure starting to build again, which supports the case for continued policy normalisation by the Bank of Japan. Stronger input inflation linked partly to oil, together with hiring close to its fastest pace in years and rising backlogs,...
The benefit itself is modest in scale, but it sits alongside a proposed two-year cut to the consumption tax on food, which keeps Japan's fiscal trajectory in focus for bond investors. Any sign that the combined package grows beyond the reference figures could add to upward pressure on long-dated Japanese government...
The change doesn't alter exchange hours, but it does shift when global liquidity overlaps. Asia-Pacific desks now see US cash trading start and finish an hour later on their clocks, which narrows the gap between the Wall Street close and the Asian open and changes when US-driven moves first reach Asian markets. For...
The delay adds to a run of setbacks that point to rising execution risk across Australia's (and global) data centre sector, where permitting, energy supply and community opposition are all lengthening timelines. Listed developers and landlords such as NextDC and Goodman have already pulled back or delayed projects...
The survey has an uncomfortable mix for policymakers: demand and output are contracting, but input costs and selling prices are rising faster. Firms cited higher interest rates among the reasons for weaker orders, while the pricing data suggest inflation pressure in the goods sector is building rather than fading,...
Because the data came out on a Saturday, Monday's Asian session is the first chance for markets to price the miss. Softer Chinese factory demand is usually a headwind for industrial metals such as copper and iron ore, and for China-sensitive currencies including the yuan and the Australian dollar. Chinese equities may...
Nasdaq suffers worst month since March 2025 as technology stocks tumble Bitcoin tests key support as Binance security fears weigh Week ahead: Elections, rate decisions and jobs take center stage Earnings next week: Can Apple, Palantir and AMD restore confidence? Fed's Logan: At least two more quarter-point rate hikes...
Next week's calendar gives traders plenty to work with. US congressional elections bring political uncertainty, the Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of England are expected to raise rates, and Friday delivers employment reports from both the US and Canada. The central question is whether growth, inflation and...
Comments from Canada PM Carney cross the wires: Canada, EU working towards deepest possible partnership, short of accession. We will determine substance, scale and scope of this form of membership over coming months. Accepted President Costa's invitation to attend European Council meetings in June to conclude...
Fitch's assessment of the UK Budget points to a familiar problem: setting out a path to stronger public finances is one thing. Delivering it is another. The ratings agency sees broad continuity in government policy, but warns that the plans still leave a sizeable delivery challenge. It continues to anticipate...
Headlines: What is spooking markets as stocks, Treasury yields and gold all fall today? Gold gets hit again by forced liquidations as equity losses mount; fundamental outlook increasingly positive BOJ governor Ueda says will stick to rate hike path in response to latest macro developments BOJ governor Ueda tries to...
Eurozone Q3 preliminary GDP +0.4% vs +0.2% q/q expected Prior +0.6% Eurozone Q3 preliminary GDP +1.3% vs +1.1% y/y expected Prior +1.2% Well, well, well. Would you look at that. The euro area economy has managed to pull a rabbit out of the hat, delivering a better-than-expected Q3 GDP reading at first glance. But...
The state readings released around the same time: Bavaria September CPI +2.8% vs +3.2% y/y prior Saxony September CPI +2.9% vs +3.3% y/y prior North Rhine Westphalia September CPI +2.7% vs +3.3% y/y prior Baden Wuerttemberg September CPI +2.6% vs +2.9% y/y prior After the acceleration in September, headline inflation...
Spain Q3 preliminary GDP +0.6% vs +0.6% q/q expected Prior +0.7% Spain Q3 preliminary GDP +2.7% vs +2.7% y/y expected Prior +2.6% It is the preliminary report, so there aren't much details to work with here besides the headline figures above. The quarterly figure does show a bit of a slowdown in Spanish economic...
Spain October preliminary CPI +4.9% vs +4.9% y/y expected Prior +4.9% Spain October preliminary HICP +4.9% vs +4.9% y/y expected Prior +5.0% Spanish inflation continues to hover around 5% in October, as the preliminary estimates continue to paint a rather uncomfortable picture for the most part. Headline annual...
France October preliminary CPI +3.4% vs +3.2% y/y expected Prior +3.1% France October preliminary HICP +3.8% vs +3.6% y/y expected Prior +3.4% French inflation is seen accelerating again in October, as the preliminary estimates show headline annual inflation climbing to its highest since December 2023. Yowza. The main...
Germany September import prices +2.1% vs +1.8% m/m expected Prior +1.0% Germany September import prices +10.4% vs +10.3% y/y expected Prior +8.3% Just when Germany thought it had enough economic headaches to deal with, here's another one to add to the pile. This time, the inflation monster is making quite the comeback...
France Q3 preliminary GDP -0.1% vs +0.1% q/q expected Prior 0.0% France Q3 preliminary GDP % vs +0.3% y/y expected Prior +0.5% Ouch. That's a notable miss as French GDP shrinks in Q3 this year. That follows from the stagnation in Q2 and a 0.2% contraction in Q1, not exactly the sort of economic performance one would...
It looks like Halloween is coming a day early for markets with investors getting quite the fright already as we look to wrap up the trading week. Both stocks and Treasury yields are falling together, with gold also struggling to catch a bid. That's a rather spooky combination to deal with. So, what exactly is driving...
Iran's Ghalibaf: Progress can only be achieved once the seven conditions have been agreed upon Trump: Iran war will be over very soon. Senator warns of 'insane' US plans ECB sources report: Policymakers see a December rate hike followed by a pause Lagarde: Growth should be underpinned in the near term ECB rate...
Trump has said this at least 100 times since the war started in late February. He is an improviser, not a planner. Since it all went sideways, he has been looking for an elegant exit but can't find one. The blockade may be giving him some leverage but the pain of higher oil prices is making it an extremely unpopular...
Iran this week has repeated its 'seven conditions' several times and most of it was part of the agreement with the US from June 17. Here is a recap: 1. End military operations on all fronts. A permanent halt to attacks against Iran and allied groups, including in Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq and the Palestinian territories.
High yield: 4.894% WI level at the time of the auction: 4.894% Tail: 0.0 basis points vs the average of 0.2 basis points Bid to cover: 2.46X vs the average of 2.49X Directs: 32.82% vs the average of 24.2% Indirects: 57.77% vs the average of 63.7% Dealers: 9.41% vs the average of 12.1% Auction grade: B− A slightly...
Headlines: US futures tumble as Alphabet earnings revive AI spending fears, Amazon is next in the firing line ECB president Lagarde set to step down from her position next February Crude oil remains capped by renewed US-Iran deal hopes, but upside risks persist Trump administration in ongoing talks for a temporary...
According to Semafor , the Trump administration is involved in discussions aimed at securing a temporary peace deal. Vice President JD Vance has reportedly sent a letter to Tehran in an effort to revive negotiations, although Trump downplayed the initiative and framed it around humanitarian needs. The diplomatic push...
Fed chair Warsh talked and markets listened. But by the end of it all, everyone pretty much went home with the same hand that they were dealt with in looking to the next meeting in December. So much for a productive Fed meeting, eh? While yesterday's decision and press conference didn't exactly shake things up,...
RBA set for fifth 2026 hike to 4.85% as banks flag risk of another move in February More on Samsung: shares slide up to 6.6% as shareholder-return plan is delayed to January US government builds $30bn stock portfolio across 43 deals in chips, minerals and quantum Alphabet slides over 9% after hours as search miss and...
Vance writes to Iran hard-liner Rezaei to revive talks as Trump weighs new strikes Alphabet Q3: Google Cloud revenue jumps 103% but search and ad sales miss forecasts Microsoft Q1 beats as Azure grows 48% and capex lands $6bn below forecast The before and after. A look at the changes in forex, rates, stocks through...
Lower tier data only on the agenda for the session ahead. There are much-awiated earnings releases after the US RTH close, MSFT and Alphabet. (GOOGL) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Axios' Barak Ravid is out with a new report: Mediators led by Qatar are trying to restart negotiations after the midterms Qataris working to convince Iran to allow nuclear inspectors in return for some sanctions relief Trump says "we need to finish the jobs through a deal or another way" The report says "A renewed...
Post from Iran's foreign minister on twitter: While our Brave Armed Forces are fully prepared to defend the Homeland, Iran continues to give diplomacy a chance to succeed. We remain in close and ongoing contact with intermediaries to review ideas that can ensure implementation of our 7-Day Plan in even less than a...
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) lowered its near-term growth forecasts but the government still expects to meet its fiscal rules, with £15 billion of headroom at the end of the forecast period. The headline growth revisions: 2026 GDP: 1.2% vs 1.1% in March 2027 GDP: 1.0% vs 1.6% in March 2028 GDP: 1.6% vs
Headlines: Crude oil remains under pressure amid US-Iran deal hopes; setbacks could push prices to new highs Qatari mediators presented Iran with new draft deal; Iran's response expected by the end of the week Gold rebounds on renewed hopes for US-Iran deal as focus shifts to FOMC decision Wall Street faces a double...
UK chancellor Healey has a rather unenviable task at hand today. He is expected to deliver a budget that keeps households happy, businesses afloat, and bond investors calm. All while trying to convince everyone that the government isn't running short of money. Well, good luck with that. It is definitely quite the...
According to an official briefed on the US-Iran negotiations, Qatari mediators presented Tehran with a new draft proposal on Sunday. Iran is considering the proposal, with a response expected by the end of the week. The draft reportedly establishes a seven-day timeline for addressing both sides' concerns, requiring...
For quite some time now, Germany's export struggles are hardly anything new. A lot of that comes down to push to diversify away from China in recent times but Beijing's own ambitions to become more self-sufficient haven't exactly helped matters either. That has slowly exerted a toll on Europe's largest economy,...
Germany November GfK consumer sentiment -30.8 vs -30.9 expected Prior -30.6 The breakdownThe latest GfK survey shows that German consumer sentiment is set to slip marginally heading into November, amid growing inflation fears and more subdued income prospects. Looking at the details, consumers' economic expectations...
It has been quite an eventful start to the day so far as the central bank bonanza rolls into town. That is putting inflation back in the spotlight with there already being plenty to digest before European traders get to their desks and before we even get to the main events later today. To start with, we saw...
RBNZ's Breman: more hikes likely at coming meetings, possibly into restrictive territory US warns Gulf allies of possible short, intense Iran campaign after midterms: WSJ Oil edges higher after Houthis claim missile strike on Saudi Arabia's biggest refinery RBA's Bullock: Inflation is far too high PBOC sets USD/ CNY...
Oil is the clearest driver of the headline beat, and Bullock tied higher energy prices directly to a worse inflation outlook only minutes before the release, so any further rise in crude adds to the case for tightening. The bigger signal for markets is the core reading. A trimmed mean that rose to 3.7%, when the RBA...
Australia CPI, September 2026 / Q3 Quarterly (Q3) CPI q/q: 1.3% vs. 1.3% expected (prior 0.6%) CPI y/y: 3.9% vs. 3.9% expected (prior 3.9%) Trimmed mean q/q: 1.0% vs. 1.0% expected (prior 0.8%) Trimmed mean y/y: 3.7% vs. 3.6% expected (prior 3.5%) Monthly (September) CPI m/m: 0.8% vs. 0.7% expected (prior 0.4%) CPI...
A sharp slowdown in supply growth would ease one source of pressure on bond markets after a heavy 2026, which could help keep corporate spreads tight if demand holds up. AI borrowing stays the main swing factor for supply: with capex expected to top $1.3 trillion, hyperscaler issuance will keep testing investor...
US September durable goods orders +1.8% vs +1.7% expected US FHFA Monthly home prices index 0.3% vs 0.2% estimate US August Case-Shiller 20-city house price index +2.7% y/y vs +2.6% expected October US consumer confidence 91.7 vs 81.0 expected US New home sales for September 0.676M annualized vs 0.650M estimate US...
Flávio Bolsonaro is reportedly en route to the United States, according to allies cited by Folha de S.Paulo. That comes just two days after he lost the presidential runoff to Lula, and after the Supreme Court ordered him to surrender his passports amid criminal investigations. Brazilian authorities then cancelled his...
Headlines: FOMC Preview: A hawkish hold as markets watch for signals about timing and extent of further tightening Why the Federal Reserve matters more to crypto market than many investors realise Oil consolidates around recent highs as fears of imminent US strikes ease. What's next? ECB rate outlook grows more...
France October consumer confidence 80 vs 85 expected Prior 86; revised to 85 That's a major blow. French household confidence falls to its lowest since 2013 in October as fiscal worries and concerns over the country's public finances weigh heavily on sentiment. That is not a good look as the index strays further away...
There is a bit of a welcome relief in global bonds to start the new week, particularly in Europe after Moody's affirmed France's Aa3 credit rating. Meanwhile, Treasury yields have also settled down a fair bit after an extremely volatile period earlier this month. But in looking at where things are right now, there is...
European traders will be greeted with a rather bare economic calendar when they get to their desks today, and I reckon that might suit some market players just fine considering what is on the agenda later this week. In terms of data releases, we only have French consumer confidence for October and the ECB's survey on...
Asia firms into Tokyo lunch: Japan and Korea stocks rise, AUD and NZD gain after Nasdaq lead Ethereum Foundation "dump" is a $6.4m treasury sale, not a crisis South Korea Q3 GDP grows 1.0%, beating forecasts as AI chip boom lifts exports China September industrial profits jump 14.4% y/y, rebounding from 4.2% in August...
The rebound offers a modest positive surprise for Chinese assets at a time when sentiment is fragile, with onshore equities in a bear market and Morgan Stanley warning of further downside in offshore shares. Industrial and materials stocks are the most direct beneficiaries, and the data may slightly ease concerns...
An in-line print is unlikely to move the yen much on its own, but it removes one possible dovish surprise before Friday's decision and keeps the backdrop supportive of December hike pricing. Steady services inflation strengthens the case for the Outlook Report to effectively declare underlying inflation has reached...
This is a warning shot rather than an escalation, so the immediate market impact is likely confined to aerospace names, with Airbus and Boeing shares the most exposed to any shift in trade rhetoric. The bigger risk is that aircraft financing becomes a fresh front in US-EU trade tensions at a time when the...
The Australian dollar and front-end yields are set up for a binary reaction. With implied hike odds already above half, a trimmed mean at or above 1.0% would push November pricing closer to fully priced and support the currency. A 0.9% or lower print could see that pricing unwind quickly. Oil is central to the...
The analysis adds a structural layer to an inflation backdrop already strained by energy, which argues against easing and supports the case for central banks on tightening paths, including the Fed and the Bank of Japan, to keep a hawkish bias into 2027. Japan's projected 0.3 point boost is notable ahead of this week's...
The Canadian dollar had some deal optimism built in after the weekend remarks from Washington, so Carney's comments and the Semafor report remove part of that support and leave USD/CAD sensitive to further trade headlines. A deal that eases retaliatory tariffs would still be a positive for Canadian exporters and...
At the close: US stock markets climb Monday as Anthropic files for IPO US and Canada working on deal to ease tariffs on Canadian steel and auto imports The once Magnificent 7 are not so magnificent, but they still are large cap technology movers Saudi Arabia offers cash to Houthis to stop attacks - report The cost of...
The services PPI is rarely a big mover for the yen on its own, but a reading at or above 3.7% would reinforce December hike pricing and lend modest support to the yen and short-dated JGB yields into Friday. A downside surprise would carry more weight than usual, coming after the sharp September slowdown in goods...
I'll get a preview posted for the Japanese data soon (ADDED, here it is: Japan services PPI preview: 3.7% pace in focus ahead of Friday's BoJ decision ). In brief, while the services PPI is rarely a big mover for the yen on its own, but a reading at or above 3.7% would reinforce December hike pricing and lend modest...
False reports of 'a Canada-USA trade deal' aren't far off from the number of reports about 'peace in Hormuz' so I would take this one with a grain of salt. There has been some noise over the weekend about new trade negotiations led by Lutnick. This report from Reuters cites two Canadian and four American sources that...
An extraordinary report from Israel Hayom says Saudi Arabia is seeking a ceasefire with the Houthis through a deal that would see $1 billion transferred to the Iranian-backed group via Tehran. Citing unnamed Gulf diplomatic sources, the newspaper says Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman made a visit to...
OpenAI is just out with a new model named GPT 6.1 Terra. This isn't as strong as GPT-6 Astra but it's far more efficient and it gets to the heart of where AI is headed. AI is becoming a commodity faster than it is becoming an indispensable service. Already we have the Sol model, which is near Astra at a fifth of the...
High yield: 4.708% WI level at the time of the auction: 4.705% Tail: 0.3 basis points vs the average of a 0.2-basis-point stop-through Bid to cover: 2.59X vs the average of 2.64X Directs: 41.32% vs the average of 30.4% Indirects: 45.68% vs the average of 58.3% Dealers: 13.0% vs the average of 11.3% Auction grade: C−...
Iran hosted the first four-way meeting of Iran, Pakistan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia in Tehran today, according to Fars. The group released a short statement afterwards, noting that they had agreed to continuing talks. The lack of detail is naturally frustrating but this is undoubtedly a push to provide some kind of...
Anthropic has filed the IPO that was rumored to be coming today. An interesting bit of trivia is the 'ant' mythology. South Korean retail investors were dubbed 'ants' back in the 1980s, a put-down they eventually wore as a badge of honour. The term has gone global since COVID, and especially this year as the Kospi...
Headlines: Major central banks take centre stage this week but will there be any surprises? Oil retreats as Trump refrains from striking Iran over the weekend; risk of attacks keeps the market supported Chart of the day: Gold price tests $4,000 support, is a deeper correction looming? Gold could rebound in the...
The UK autumn budget is coming up on 28 October, just a week before the BOE's next monetary policy decision . And with inflation concerns still hanging over the economy , the government's fiscal plans could have a say in how interest rate expectations develop over the coming months. For now, traders are pricing in...
Germany October Ifo business climate index 90.2 vs 90.0 expected Prior 89.9 Germany October Ifo current conditions index 88.8 vs 89.9 expected Prior 89.5 Germany October Ifo expectations index 91.6 vs 90.0 expected Prior 90.4 The breakdownThe survey continues to reaffirm a further improvement in German business...
This is just a quick heads up for traders before we get too far into the new trading week. If you're wondering why European markets seem to be opening a little later than usual today, well it is because we're back to that time of the year again. Daylight saving time ended across most of Europe over the weekend, with...
Brazil ETF tumbles nearly 15% in Tokyo after Lula's comeback runoff win Saudi Arabia to store crude in Singapore caverns from 2027 as Hormuz disruption bites Goldman's 79-tonne central bank gold estimate goes mainstream as reserves shift to London BOJ to hold at 1.25%, but Ueda signals further hikes toward neutral...
The Tokyo ETF move is an early and thin-volume signal, so the real test comes when Brazilian markets open, with the real, the local rates curve and the Bovespa likely to bear the brunt of any repricing. Goldman Sachs' figures describe an extreme scenario rather than a base case, but they frame the scale of the...
The proposal adds to already tense US-China relations and keeps headline risk elevated for Chinese technology and biotech stocks, including US-listed ADRs and the Hang Seng Tech index. Biotech is the sector most directly exposed, since it is the newly targeted industry and has relied more heavily on cross-border...
Baker Hughes US oil rig count rises 1 to 460. Total rigs unchanged at 603 US expected to remove 50% tariffs on some Canadian products as soon as today - report UMich final October final consumer sentiment 48.0 vs 46.3 expected Canada August retail sales +1.2% vs +1.3% expected US S&P Global flash October services PMI...
Trump at a rally says they may do "another operation" against Iran. We may do another little Epic Fury We'll take care of Cuba on our way back from Iran The market is certainly betting that Trump is going to do something in the short term, which is why oil has been so strongly bid in the past two days. Meanwhile, The...
Election season is doing what trade negotiators couldn't. The Wall Street Journal reports the US is preparing to lift 50% tariffs on some Canadian agricultural and forestry products, with a proclamation possibly coming as soon as today. The motivation is political: Maine Sen. Susan Collins has been lobbying for relief...
Headlines: Falling Treasury yields may be hiding a darker story about the AI boom Crude oil extends gains as Saudi-Houthi conflict and concerns of US-Iran attacks keep the market supported Gold gets caught in market liquidation despite falling real yields supporting higher prices France October PMI slumps back into...
Eurozone October flash services PMI 51.7 vs 52.5 expected Prior 53.0 Eurozone October flash manufacturing PMI 52.4 vs 52.7 expected Prior 52.9 Eurozone October flash composite PMI 51.9 vs 52.7 expected Prior 53.1 After the softer prints from France and Germany, the weaker-than-expected results for the overall euro...
France October flash services PMI 48.4 vs 50.7 expected Prior 51.2 France October flash manufacturing PMI 49.3 vs 50.5 expected Prior 50.6 France October flash composite PMI 48.4 vs 50.5 expected Prior 51.1 That's not a good sign as the French private sector falls back into contraction in October, amid political and...
UK September retail sales -0.4% vs -0.1% m/m expected Prior +0.5; revised to +0.7% UK September retail sales +0.8% vs +1.0% y/y expected Prior +2.4%; revised to +2.7% UK September retail sales (ex autos, fuel) -0.7% vs -0.1% m/m expected Prior +0.6%; revised to +0.9% UK September retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +0.8% vs...
The UK retail sales release will be one of the main items to watch out for in the economic calendar today, especially after the latest inflation and labour market figures have given the BOE plenty to think about ahead of its November meeting. For the September report, retail sales are expected to fall by 0.1% on the...
HSBC's RedCoin stablecoin goes live in Hong Kong: what the launch answers, and what it still doesn't Gold drops below $4,000 for first time since July as yields and dollar weigh Three AI listings stalled in a month: the money behind the AI boom is getting pickier Japan's 2.4% underlying inflation puts a higher BoJ...
The survey gives the BoJ a mixed but broadly workable backdrop: steady growth and persistent cost pressure support further policy normalisation, while weaker hiring and softer demand argue for a gradual pace. For the yen, the data are unlikely to shift expectations much on their own, coming alongside this morning's...
Japan CPI, September 2026 (ps more detail here added now) Headline CPI 2.1% expected 2.1%, prior 1.9% Core CPI 2.1% expected 2.1%, prior 1.7% Core - core (ex-Food and Energy) 2.4% expected 2.3%, prior 1.9% this the closest to US core inflation Background to this here: Japan CPI preview: core seen at 2.1%, topping BoJ...
The survey shows weaker activity alongside firmer inflation, a difficult mix for rate expectations. Falling output argues against further tightening, while faster input and output price growth argues against easing. That uncertainty could add volatility to Australian dollar and short-dated bond pricing as traders...
Nasdaq sinks as chip stocks tumble Mag 7 under pressure: Apple bucks the selling Bitcoin follows the flows and today that flow is "risk-off" and selling. The evidence mounts that the US dollar is leveraged to the AI trade US treasury excels $26 billion of five-year tips at a high yield of 2.367% US 10-year yields...
The Treasury sold $26 billion of 5-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, with the following results: High yield: 2.367%. WI level at the time of the auction: 2.360%. Tail: 0.7 basis point vs the average of 0.2 basis point. Bid to cover: 2.41X vs the average of 2.52X. Directs: 32.4% vs the average of...
Headlines: Oil rises as hopes for a deal fade amid growing prospects of another US attack on Iran US futures tumble as AI rally faces fresh scrutiny despite solid Meta earnings Chart of the day: Gold price falls below $4,100 as sellers threaten another breakdown Gold drops as Middle East tensions escalate, but growth...
France October business confidence 97 vs 96 expected Prior 96 France October industrial confidence 105 Prior 101 France October services confidence 99 Prior 98 The overall business climate picked up slightly in October but remains below the long-term average estimate of 100 for yet another month. For some context, the...
While we haven't seen things escalate further recently, it is best to be reminded that US-Iran tensions are still very much simmering beneath the surface. And the IRGC is offering a reminder of that as they claim that four vessels were hit and caught fire in the northern Gulf, while three other vessels were reportedly...
Kinder Morgan commits to $4.2B Texas gas pipeline to fuel hyperscale data center power Most analysts now expect the next BOJ rate hike in December, none see October move: Bloomberg Musk races to seal $3.7 trillion SpaceX-Tesla merger before Trump exits, Bloomberg says Bank of Korea holds rate at 3% after back-to-back...
The miss was too small to shift the policy outlook. Markets still price an October 28 hike as near certain and a cumulative 50 basis points of tightening by the end of February. The kiwi's dip just below 0.57 suggests traders trimmed only the most aggressive hike bets. Oil is the key swing factor from here: the Middle...
New Zealand Q3 CPI 3.7% y/y expected 3.8%, prior 4.1% 0.7% q/q expected 0.8%, prior 1.5% Background: New Zealand CPI preview: Q3 inflation seen easing to 3.8% ahead of likely RBNZ hike More ADDED: New Zealand inflation slows to 3.7% in Q3, below forecasts, keeping RBNZ hike on track This article was written by Eamonn...
US stocks close higher as tech leads the rally New Zealand CPI preview: Q3 inflation seen easing to 3.8% ahead of likely RBNZ hike US State Department is to prepared to issue a order departure at US embassies in the Gulf Bitcoin shows some buying life as risk-on flows return and push the digital currency higher US...
Crude oil has moved back to the upside amid renewed concerns about a possible resumption of hostilities in the Middle East. According to a Reuters report citing U.S. officials, the State Department is preparing to order the departure of some personnel and family members from U.S. embassies across the Gulf. The...
Prior auction yield 5.420% Details of the 20 year auction Jesus Christ WI level at the time of the auction: 5.460% High yield: 5.469% WI level at the time of the auction: 5.460% Tail: 0.9 basis points vs the average of 0.2 basis points Bid to cover: 2.73X vs the average of 2.62X Directs: 31.6% vs the average of 22.9%...
Headlines: Zcash jumps after US-Iran deal hopes improve crypto market sentiment. What to watch next? Crude oil volatility increases amid conflicting reports over US-Iran negotiations Connecting the dots: How rising government bond yields could hurt your retirement savings European markets steady for now but widening...
European equities are keeping steadier so far today with France's benchmark CAC 40 index even holding up by 0.3% on the session. Meanwhile, the euro is also only slightly lower against the dollar but is still holding above the 1.1200 level at around 1.1215 currently. That suggests traders are not quite rushing for the...
UK September CPI +3.5% vs +3.4% y/y expected Prior +3.1% UK September core CPI +2.8% vs +2.8% y/y expected Prior +2.6% As expected, headline annual inflation surged in the Uk during the past month with the reading being the highest since October last year. Higher energy costs are the main culprit here as transport,...
The UK CPI report for September is the main highlight on the economic calendar today, with the release due at 0600 GMT. The inflation numbers will be heavily watched as it will have a lot to say about what comes next on the BOE outlook, even if traders are almost fully pricing in another 25 bps move in November....
NEXTDC shares plunge 44% as power delays expose AI data centre bottleneck Nvidia in talks to invest hundreds of millions in Firmus after AI cloud firm's IPO flop US intel says Putin ordered NATO sabotage drive, Leipzig drone attack an opening shot Japan's Katayama sees no gap with BOJ, says wage-driven inflation is...
The report raises the perceived risk of escalation between Russia and NATO, which would tend to support European defence stocks and weigh on European risk sentiment if officials respond with tougher measures. The energy channel is the one to watch: Russia's diesel supply deal with Washington and the pause in new US...
The trade data is broadly supportive for the yen and for the BOJ's tightening case, with exports still growing strongly and firms passing higher costs through to prices. The narrowing deficit owes much to oil disruption rather than weaker demand: Houthi rerouting delayed crude arrivals, so the import bill is likely to...
Netflix tops Q3 profit forecast but trims two full-year targets as Q4 guide disappoints Trump: Ukraine has to want to settle this war, if not it's going to be a very bad thing Finland President Stubb offers some optimism for Russia-Ukraine peace BOE's Greene keeps banging the hawkish drum, and she's not alone anymore...
US President Donald Trump is out with some comments that suggest America is leaning on Ukraine to make concessions to end the war. I'd like to see if we can make a deal on Ukraine war We want Zelensky to make a deal Ukraine has to want to settle this war If he doesn't I think it's going to be a very bad thing Says...
There are some incremental positive developments on the road to peace in Ukraine. Finland's President Stubb said this: On a substantive and technical level, we've made a lot of progress under the radar in the past week or so towards a peaceful solution to the war in Ukraine. Similarly (though less explicit) Norway's...
Al Araby Al Jadeed is reporting that Qatar and Pakistan have put a "compromise proposal" in front of Washington and Tehran that meets the demands of both sides. The key detail is that the plan, presented to Iranian officials today by Pakistan's army chief, reportedly already has American sign-off and some prior...
Headlines: The Indian Rupee's sharp rebound following RBI intervention may prove temporary amid renewed surge in oil prices Solana remains under pressure as macro and geopolitical headwinds overshadow Alpenglow upgrade Crude oil surges further amid Houthis attacks on Saudi energy targets and stalled US-Iran...
UK August ILO unemployment rate 4.7% vs 5.0% expected Prior 4.9% UK August employment change 102k vs 5k expected Prior 67k UK August average weekly earnings +3.7% vs +3.8% 3m/y expected Prior +3.9% UK August average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +3.7% vs +3.6% 3m/y expected Prior +3.5%; revised to +3.6% UK September...
Germany September PPI +1.9% vs +1.5% m/m expected Prior +1.1% Germany September PPI +6.7% vs +6.2% y/y expected Prior +4.6% The breakdownWell, this marks another solid jump in German producer prices with the annual rate climbing to 6.7% now in September. That marks the strongest year-on-year increase since March 2023,...
Daiwa: BOJ shifts focus from reaching 2% inflation to keeping it there, wages hold the key MUFG says firmer China growth offers yuan support, but uneven demand limits the upside PBOC to run daily overnight reverse repos to Nov 2 in first step after policy rate signal Are US Treasuries still a hedge? Citi Australia CEO...
Canada September CPI 3.1% y/y vs 3.2% expected US NAHB housing market index 29 vs 31 prior Bank of Canada Q3 business outlook survey -0.33 vs -0.38 prior CIBC cuts gold forecasts but still sees $5,500 in 2028 Oil reverses course higher after US and Houthi attacks Markets: S&P 500 up 0.4% WTI crude oil up $2.37 to
Republicans are running out of time to turn it around ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. Trump is increasingly a liability of the party as his approval hits a record low of just 31%. It's an ugly chart as it continues to deteriorate with an inflection following the March war in Iran. Worse yet is the broader...
Headlines: US futures look to rebound after tech rout but the real test is still ahead European stock market open: French unrest weighs on stocks to start the new week Gold eyes another run at $4,200 but the bond market still holds the key Gold remains supported as real yields fall amid growth concerns. What to watch...
Al-Arabiya is saying that a breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations is expected to be announced this week as negotiators are working to narrow differences and secure mutual concessions to prevent a renewed escalation. The timing of the report is interesting as we approach the US midterm elections due on November 3. Trump...
There's going to be plenty of watchful eyes on the UK CPI report this Wednesday, not least with the autumn budget just around the corner. Another hot set of inflation numbers could very well make life rather uncomfortable for both the government and the BOE. The headline annual inflation estimate is expected to rise...
Summary: The euro opened lower on escalating riots in France, drone incidents over the Black Sea and US warnings over EU tech rules, then recovered most of the gap Oil edged lower after Trump signed an order waiving some sanctions and duties on Russian energy, with the US set to receive more than 300,000 tonnes of...
A modest beat across the board supports the Australian and New Zealand dollars and broader Asian risk sentiment, though the relief is tempered by weak investment. For oil, firmer industrial output and retail sales from the world's largest crude importer offer some support to the demand side, at a time when Iran war...
State buying and selling curbs typically put a floor under Chinese equities in the short term, so near-term downside in mainland indices may be more limited than global tech peers suggest. That support is administrative rather than fundamental, and rallies built on directed buying have often faded once the...
Retail Sales (YoY) 1.1% expected 0.5%, prior 0.4% Industrial Production (YoY) 5.5% expected 5.4%, prior 5.2% Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (YoY) -7.2% expected -7.3%, prior -7.2% Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q3) 4.5% expected 4.4%, prior 4.3% Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q3) 1.2% expected 1.1%, prior 0.9% ADDED,...
Smaller price declines are mildly encouraging for Chinese property developers and for sentiment toward the yuan, but they are unlikely to shift the market narrative on their own. Oil is the bigger channel: as the largest crude importer, China's domestic demand matters for prices at a time when the Iran war is already...
The repricing so far is selective rather than AI-wide: the heaviest pressure falls on companies that need outside capital to build, including Oracle, SoftBank and former bitcoin miners turned AI hosts such as Cipher and TeraWulf, while cash-rich hyperscalers like Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon are far less...
For oil, China's position as the largest crude importer makes this release a demand signal at a sensitive moment, with the Iran war already squeezing Gulf supply. Soft domestic numbers would temper the demand side of the oil story even as supply risk keeps prices elevated. The Australian and New Zealand dollars, as...
A wider trade gap is a modest negative for the New Zealand dollar at the margin, since a larger external deficit means more reliance on foreign funding. Oil is the key channel to watch: with the Iran war keeping crude prices elevated, any confirmation that fuel drove the import jump would point to imported inflation...
A reading barely above 50 does little to shift the outlook for the New Zealand dollar, which takes its lead from global risk sentiment and rate expectations more than from second-tier surveys. A soft employment component and persistent concern over interest rates point to an economy still sensitive to borrowing costs,...
Data from China the focus on the ecnomic info agenda. I'll get a preview posted separately. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
BOJ's Ueda: We will continue to raise rates as underlying inflation approaches 2% US September import price index +1.1% vs +0.8% expected US September industrial production +0.7% vs +0.4% expected US fiscal 2026 budget deficit was the largest in five years Markets: Gold down $2 to $4168 US 10-year yields down 2 bps to...
September 2025 was a $198B surplus Outlays $585B vs $346B a year ago Receipts $558B vs $544B a year ago FY2026 deficit $1.992 trillion vs $1.775T in FY2025, the largest in five years FY2026 gross interest on the debt: record $1.36T, up $144B (12%) Interest is now the main driver of the deficit. The $144B rise in...
Headlines: Gold shrugs off hot inflation data as market focus may be shifting to growth concerns How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events? Chart of the day: 10-year Treasury yields hit reverse this week but the real test is still ahead Eurozone September final CPI +3.8% vs +3.8% y/y prelim...
Warsh won't prejudge rest of 2026, names October and December as decision points Tesla unveils thruster-powered Roadster with $50,000 deposit, production slated for 2028 Bailey says UK second-round inflation effects subdued so far, too early to judge Ethereum whale's $13.45M loss reflects a year-long exit, not a fresh...
There's something that is not quite adding up in trading this week. We've had two hotter-than-expected US inflation readings in the space of two days, and yet Treasury yields are actually moving lower instead of higher. Now, that is not quite the reaction you would expect from the bond market especially after having...
The data adds to a mixed picture for the New Zealand dollar, with weak household spending offsetting the stronger manufacturing survey released earlier in the day. A second monthly fall in card spending points to soft domestic demand, which tends to argue against tighter policy, while flat food prices remove one...
The stronger reading is mildly supportive for the New Zealand dollar, adding to evidence that the goods side of the economy is gathering pace into year-end. Firm new orders and production point to near-term resilience, while the return to growth in employment is the detail policymakers are likely to watch most
US September PPI 6.3% vs 5.3% expected US October Philly Fed business index +20.9 vs +28.4 expected US October Empire Manufacturing index +25.50 vs +10.25 expected US retails sales for September 0.8% MoM vs 0.3% estimate. Prior month 1.3% Canada August manufacturing sales +1.5% vs +1.1% expected US initial jobless...
Headlines: Ethereum extends losses after the US CPI as risk sentiment deteriorates further. What's next? Why do altcoins crash so much harder than Bitcoin? Oil remains supported amid persistent Middle East tensions as US weighs using "Mother of All Bombs" Bitcoin sinks after the US CPI as markets get increasingly...
The hotter-than-expected US CPI report yesterday was already enough to give markets a bit of a headache. And despite the initial surge higher in Treasury yields fading, there's still evidence of jitters with equities staying under pressure today. So if investors are hoping for some breathing room to get by, I'm afraid...
France September final CPI +3.1% vs +3.0% y/y prelim Prior +2.4% France September final HICP +3.4% vs +3.4% y/y prelim Prior +2.6% France September core CPI +1.5% y/y Prior +1.1% The final figures for September are out and they're not exactly offering much comfort for the ECB. The annual readings confirm another...
RBNZ's Conway says October rate decision completely open, OCR more likely to rise AUD lower: Australian jobs fall 39,300 in September, unemployment at five-year high of 4.7% BOJ's Koeda says bank should not be overly cautious about raising rates Gold jumps around $40 as Treasury yields retreat from post-CPI high Talk...
If China's holdings are more stable than reported, one of the market's recurring worries, a steady Chinese exit from Treasuries, would carry less weight, which could ease some concern about foreign demand at US debt auctions. The theory also shows why headline foreign holdings data can mislead traders who read monthly...
Australian employment market data for September 2026. Employment Change -39.3K expected 20.0K, prior 39.5K Unemployment Rate 4.7% ... an unfortunate result which does take some reason away for further RBA rate hikes, at the margin ... AUD marked a little lower expected 4.6%, prior 4.6% Full-Time Employment +34.4K...
Data due at the bottom of the hour, 0030 GMT / 2030 US Eastern time: unemployment seen at 4.6% Australia jobs preview: NAB sees 20,000 gain, unemployment steady at 4.6% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
With NAB, Westpac and consensus all at 20,000 and three major banks seeing unemployment at 4.6%, the bar for a surprise sits mainly in the jobless rate. A drop to 4.5% would revive the case for further RBA tightening and could support the Australian dollar and short-dated yields. A rise to 4.7% would push the other...
US September CPI 3.7% vs 3.6% expected Canada August building permits rise 8.8% vs 2.0% expected Fed's Beige Book: Nine of 12 districts report growth as price pressures broaden Fed's Goolsbee: CPI was discouraging, more bad months would be unacceptable Markets: WTI crude oil up 98-cents to $95.12 US 10-year yields...
Headlines: Bitcoin consolidates in a tight range ahead of the US CPI. What to watch next? Nasdaq analysis today as price is dancing around yesterday's close (but probably not for long) Crude oil extends gains as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia escalate, raising supply disruption risks China's September lending surprise...
China's new bank loans climbed to ¥1.08 trillion in September, beating market expectations of ¥975 billion. At first glance, that seems like a welcome improvement especially after the rather dismal lending figures we've seen over the past few months. That being said, lending is still down roughly 16% compared to...
Spain September final CPI +4.9% vs +4.9% y/y prelim Prior +4.3% Spain September final HICP +5.0% vs +5.0% y/y prelim Prior +4.6% Spain September core CPI +3.1% y/y Prior +2.9% The final report confirms another uncomfortable rise in Spanish inflation in September, with headline annual inflation rising to 4.9% from 4.3%...
Germany September wholesale prices +1.9% m/m Prior +0.9% Germany September wholesale prices +8.7% y/y Prior +6.8% The annual estimate indicates that German wholesale prices are 8.7% higher in September this year compared to the same month a year ago. That marks the highest annual price jump since February 2023 and...
There's a lot riding on the US CPI report later today, especially with Treasury yields having threatened multi-decade highs over the past week. Going into the report, the consensus is that headline inflation is going to look rather ugly. The question now though is whether markets will actually care all that much....
China factory inflation hits 5%, fastest in over four years, as CPI lags at 0.9% Lagarde: no second-round effects yet, but ECB can't wait until they are in full view Goldman Sachs says RBA minutes lower bar for November hike, with three hawkish signals Australia's biggest planned IPO in 30 years pulled as AI...
The gap between surging factory prices and subdued consumer inflation points to an oil-driven cost shock, not demand-led inflation. That makes crude and commodity prices the main driver of China's price data for now. China moving from exporting disinflation to passing on higher costs adds to global goods-price...
Producer Price Index (YoY) 5% expected 4.5%, prior 3.8% PPI +1.2% m/m (prior 0.4%) Consumer Price Index (MoM) 0.2% expected 0.3%, prior 0.4% Consumer Price Index (YoY) 0.9% expected 1.0%, prior 0.8% Earlier: Economic and event calendar in Asia Wednesday, October 14, 2026 - China inflation data Just the data this post,...
The headline jump is largely priced in, so the market reaction will hinge on core. A print at the top of the forecast range, around 0.24% or higher, would back the Fed officials warning that inflation is broadening and firm December hike pricing, lifting front-end yields and the dollar. A reading at the soft end, near...
Tomorrow's U.S. CPI report is the next big test for the markets. Will inflation remain concentrated in energy, or will the data show price pressures spreading more broadly? That question took on added importance after Susan Collins, president of the Boston Fed, reiterated her support for another rate hike before...
Goldman Sachs (GS) earned $17.01 a share in the third quarter against a forecast near $13.00. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) missed on profit and revenue but raised its 2026 forecast for net interest income, what it earns on loans minus what it pays on deposits.
DBS Group Research economist Ma Tieying assesses Taiwan's macro outlook, highlighting a strong AI cycle, diversified energy imports and evolving tariff dynamics with the US.
United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann describe USD/CNH price action as fading in downside momentum and now largely range-bound between 6.6900 and 6.7000 in the short term. Over 1 - 3 weeks, they still warn that a break and close below 6.6900 could trigger a move toward 6.6800. On a 1 -...
China releases consumer and producer price data for September at 0130 GMT on Wednesday, which is 9:30 pm US Eastern time on Tuesday. Factory-gate inflation is the reading most likely to move markets, as higher global energy costs continue to feed through the economy. August sets the benchmark. Consumer prices rose...
On Tuesday, Boston Federal Reserve (Fed) President Susan Collins said that the Fed's main focus is inflation, while adding that he expects "inflation to stay above 2% due to high energy prices."
The GBP/JPY pair extends its modest gains for two straight days this week, up 0.16% on Tuesday, as the cross-pair continues to consolidate near the 210.00 figure with no clear bias, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) drifts higher towards its 50-neutral level, an indication that buyers are step
The US CPI report for September will be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET. The report - along with the PPI on Thursday - will give traders another key piece of the inflation puzzle as markets assess whether the Fed will need to tighten policy further. Number crunchers will also be able to get a handle on the PCE and...
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret highlight the Japanese Yen (JPY) as somewhat firmer, with USD/JPY pulling back from the upper 158s on comments from BoJ Governor Ueda and PM Takaichi about close US-Japan FX contact.
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong expect Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to slightly steepen its S$NEER policy band slope on Wednesday. With tightening largely priced in, the immediate Singapore Dollar (SGD) reaction may be muted.
Societe Generale's Kit Juckes argues that Fed Funds forward pricing may be nearing the end of its third upward leg this year, with current expectations just below 5% and the US Dollar (USD) having risen alongside each repricing.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) registers gains versus the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday as risk appetite improves and energy prices retreat, weighing on the Greenback, which failed to advance even as US Treasury yields soared ahead of the US CPI release. The USD/CHF pair trades at 0.8331, down 0.18%.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret say the Euro (EUR) is marginally firmer versus the US Dollar (USD) on the softer USD tone, with ECB Governor Stournaras signalling continued gradual tightening.
On Tuesday, Richmond Federal Reserve (Fed) President Thomas Barkin appeared at Howard University and said 2 percent inflation isn't a unicorn and that "we can hit it," adding that Fed policymakers see the impact of AI investment on US inflation.
On Tuesday, New York Federal Reserve (Fed) President John Williams, a voter on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), said he believes "disinflationary forces are at play," and added that "one more interest-rate hike is appropriate this year."
EUR/GBP reverses earlier gains on Tuesday as fiscal and political concerns in France limit the Euro's (EUR) upside, while the technical picture also suggests sellers remain dominant.
MUFG's Michael Wan analyses recent Reserve Bank of India actions and their impact on the Indian Rupee. He notes that RBI's new FX and liquidity measures have sharply strengthened spot USD/INR, but also pushed stress into forwards, offshore NDFs and bonds.
Francesco Pesole at ING highlights a supportive backdrop for the Pound, with EUR/GBP now expected to trade in a 0.84 - 0.85 range for several months as Euro-specific risks persist and the Bank of England signals readiness to hike. While ING sees BoE expectations as too hawkish for 2027, one or two hikes look...
Crude Oil trades lower on Tuesday, as investors ponder the impact of the US President, Donald Trump's decision to lift the ban on Russian diesel imports.
Headlines: Solana underperforms as US spot Solana ETFs record net outflows, ending a 14-week inflow streak Long global semiconductors remains the most crowded trade followed by short US Treasuries, according to Bank of America Oil prices retreat despite persistent Middle East tensions and stalled US-Iran negotiations....
The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades lower against its major currency peers, except the US Dollar (USD), during the European trading session on Tuesday. The antipodean is under pressure even as Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes of the September policy meeting remains hawkish.
Societe Generale technical analysts highlight that Brent has been consolidating sideways after meeting an interim hurdle near $110 in September. The contract remains above its 50-day moving average around $97, keeping upward momentum intact. Brent is now testing a short-term descending trend line, with potential...
Commerzbank's Thu Lan Nguyen discusses how the US Dollar (USD) reacted to Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's move away from traditional forward guidance.
The British Pound (GBP) retraces previous losses against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Tuesday, and returns to the mid-range of the 209.00s after bouncing from lows at 208.90 earlier in the day.
Silver price (XAG/USD) trades in a tight range at around $60.30 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The white metal consolidates as investors shift their focus to the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September, which will be released on Wednesday.
Gold (XAU/USD) holds modest gains during European trading hours on Tuesday as a pullback in the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields supports the precious metal. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,183, up 0.28% on the day.
The latest Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey showed investors have become less optimistic about the macroeconomic outlook, while positioning in technology stocks remains near its most extreme level in six years. The survey was conducted between October 2 and October 8 among 161 participants managing $453...
MUFG's Lee Hardman notes that the Japanese Yen has firmed modestly, pulling USD/JPY back toward 158.00 and keeping it below the 200-day moving average near 158.50.
The Indian Rupee (INR) extends the Monday's advance against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, driven by the announcement of fresh Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) US Dollar-related measures to shore up the domestic currency.
BoE's Greene warns waiting for second-round inflation effects would be too late Goldman sees Europe reserve release cutting diesel by $11 but shrugs off Russian supply Australian business confidence slides to -13 as oil shock and rate hikes bite, NAB says Just 32 countries now drive 95% of global growth as AI widens...
Oil is the main pressure point: volatility tied to Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and the broader Iran conflict is lifting costs and denting sentiment, so any further energy spike would likely push confidence lower still. The survey highlights the RBA's dilemma, with businesses souring under higher funding costs even...
Oil is the pivot of the whole outlook: the IMF's base case assumes the Strait of Hormuz reopens in March 2027, so any slippage in that timeline or escalation toward its $130 scenario would hit growth and lift inflation, keeping central banks on a hawkish path. The higher oil price assumptions, at $96 a barrel this...
The miss trims some urgency from the hike narrative, but an annual pace near 7% and surging import costs leave the case for tightening intact, keeping Japanese yields and BOJ pricing sensitive to any hawkish signals. The weak yen is the key amplifier: with oil prices elevated by the Iran war, every leg lower in the...
Georgieva's framing of AI as both a demand and an investment shock lines up with this week's hawkish Fed commentary, which also pointed to AI-driven capital spending as a source of persistent inflation pressure, strengthening the case that the AI boom keeps rates higher for longer. Her estimate that AI investment...
The data offer little to change the picture for sterling or gilts on their own, but the mix carries a stagflationary edge: households are spending more on fuel while volumes in discretionary categories stay subdued. A near-17% jump in fuel spending shows how the oil and diesel shock is feeding into household budgets,...
The Euro extends its losses against the US Dollar on Monday, even falling below the psychological 1.1200 level as sellers step in following hawkish comments from a Fed policymaker and growing geopolitical concerns on two fronts: the US-Iran war and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Every session since September 24 has bottomed within about 25 pips of 1.3200, and Monday was the 13th. GBP/USD closed near 1.3210 after a climb to just above 1.3250, made before London opened, was given back as Brent rose above $107 a barrel.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said that further tightening is needed but reiterated earlier remarks that she is open "to adjusting the pace of rate increases."
US stocks close mixed Earnings calendar October 12 - 16: Big banks, ASML and TSMC take center stage Hammack de la Fed: Las tasas del Tesoro son "modestas" según los estándares históricos European stocks close higher. Spain leads while the dollar strengthens Gold falls toward hourly moving averages. Can sellers keep...
Two releases this week will shape expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia's next move: the minutes of its September policy meeting, due Tuesday, and Thursday's September labour force figures . Both come out at 11:30 am Sydney time, 00:30 GMT (8:30 pm ET the previous evening). Today we get the minutes. In...
Micron fell about 4% on Monday and the NASDAQ 100 fell with it, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), which holds no memory-chip maker, finished higher. The S&P 500, which holds Micron and all 30 Dow members, finished slightly lower.
United Overseas Bank's (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note USD/CNH unexpectedly fell to 6.6919 on Friday, with downside momentum starting to build. Intraday, they see potential for a brief dip below 6.6900, provided the pair stays under 6.6985. Over 1 - 3 weeks, a clear break and close beneath 6.6900 could open...
Buyers are stepping in and keeping the US Dollar (USD) bid due to safe-haven demand, as the resumption of hostilities in the Middle East and strikes between Russia and Ukraine have pushed energy prices higher.
Gold (XAU/USD) price drifts lower by about 1.49% on Monday as the Greenback gains ground amid escalating hostilities in the Middle East, pushing energy prices higher and increasing the likelihood of higher interest rates globally.
Societe Generale strategists note that the recent USD/KRW bounce stalled around 1390 and the pair is now testing the lower end of its consolidation, suggesting the broader downtrend may resume.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil reverses course on Monday and climbs to a two-week high as doubts over a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire and supply concerns in the Middle East keep a geopolitical premium in energy markets.
MUFG's Lee Hardman notes the Chinese Renminbi has outperformed the Euro against the Dollar, with USD/CNY hitting a year-to-date low near 6.6900. PBoC's lower daily fixes have supported trade‑weighted CNY gains.
Cleveland Federal Reserve (Fed) President Beth Hammack said on Monday that the neutral rate for the Fed funds "is likely higher," that she is hearing signs of a problem with inflation expectations and that the question for the Fed is "how fast to make policy more restrictive."
United Overseas Bank's (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note USD/SGD was little changed around 1.2800 on Friday and expect consolidation to persist. Intraday, they see the pair confined between 1.2790 and 1.2820, with 1.2775 as strong support. Over the next few weeks, upward momentum is rebuilding but seen too...
Rabobank strategist Molly Schwartz and Christian Lawrence discuss Mexico's rates outlook after Banxico held the overnight rate at 6.50%. They note upside risks to inflation, market pricing for more than 100bp of hikes over a year, a pronounced steepening of the Mexican yield curve versus the US, and resilient foreign...
NZD/USD declines by 0.23% on Monday, trading around 0.5600 at the time of writing, as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains under pressure against the US Dollar (USD).
ING's Chris Turner notes that the Dollar stays well supported as markets focus on solid US growth, above-target inflation and expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening. A potentially strong US September CPI is seen keeping rate expectations elevated. Turner highlights DXY consolidation above 102 as bullish...
USD/CAD trims part of its earlier decline on Monday as the US Dollar (USD) regains ground after opening the week lower. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) struggles to attract buyers as differing monetary policy expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) favour the Greenback.
Markets: WTI crude +1.4% to $92.99 USD leads, CHF lags on the day Gold down 0.5% to $4,170 European equities higher; S&P 500 futures +0.1% Bitcoin down 0.3% to $83,345 It was a quieter session in European morning trade today as broader markets have to contend with a US partial market holiday to start the new week. The...
The Euro (EUR) has resumed its broader bearish trend against the British Pound (GBP) on Monday after a mild recovery attempt at the end of last week.
TD Securities economists Robert Both and Emma Lawrence expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) to keep the Overnight Rate at 2.25% through 2026, before lifting it back to a neutral 2.75% in 2027.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) retraces previous gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday and turns negative on the daily chart, with markets cautious amid the growing tensions in the Middle East and Oil prices at high levels.
Gold (XAU/USD) edges lower on Monday, reversing earlier gains as traders avoid taking large positions ahead of US inflation data due later this week, which could offer fresh cues on the Federal Reserve's (Fed) next move.
Chris Turner at ING says EUR/CHF is consolidating after a sharp fall driven by French debt concerns that dampened ECB tightening expectations. Markets still price further rate hikes, and ING sees it as too early to cancel 2027 ECB hikes. The bank flags a possible correction to 0.9230/0.9250, while calmer periods could...
MUFG's Lee Hardman notes the Dollar index is holding just above 102.00 as softer US data and cautious Federal Reserve (Fed) communication have reduced expectations for immediate rate hikes. Markets now price only modest tightening this month.
The British Pound (GBP) gives back its early gains against the US Dollar (USD), trading flat at around 1.3235 during the European session on Monday.
The Indian Rupee (INR) trades significantly higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday. The USD/INR pair falls 1% to near 95.80 as the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) fresh measures to curb US Dollar demand have brought relief for the Indian currency.
Just a heads up as we get into the new week that today is a US market holiday in observance of Columbus Day. While Wall Street may be open for business, the bond market will be closed. As such, traders will be missing a key piece of the puzzle to start the week given how Treasury yields have been dictating broader...
Preview: TSMC tipped for sixth straight record quarter, with profit seen up 65% on AI demand Early Ethereum Foundation ETH recipients move $11M to Kraken: what the data shows Indian Rupee set for 1% rally as RBI curbs hedging rush that hit a record $77 billion People's Bank of China sets yuan reference rate at 6.7313...
MUFG's framing underlines that energy is almost the entire story behind rising US headline inflation since the Iran conflict began, keeping crude prices tightly linked to Fed expectations. The core reading is the trigger for rates markets: an in-line 0.2% would likely keep October hike pricing subdued and leave the...
For European carmakers, a hybrid quota offers some relief from lower-priced Chinese competition at a time when Volkswagen, Stellantis, Mercedes and BMW are under pressure on profits, though the cap's generous starting size and annual increases limit how much market share it protects. Chinese brands that have leaned on...
For the Australian dollar and front-end rates, the minutes carry more weight than usual because Bullock's post-meeting tone was softer than the decision itself. A record that leans toward holding would support pricing for a pause and could weigh on the currency, while one that keeps further tightening clearly on the...
The Aussie Dollar ended Friday's session on a positive note, gaining 0.38% and 0.58% weekly as the US Dollar trimmed some of its weekly gains, while US data confirmed investors' expectations that the Federal Reserve would hold rates steady in the October meeting. The AUD/USD trades at 0.6983.
US stocks close higher; Nasdaq gains for fourth straight week Week ahead: US inflation and retail sales lead a busy economic calendar. Be aware. Let's Play... "More Bullish or More Bearish". How would I view the technicals for the Mag 7 stocks. This week we got a sneak-peak at the playbook for when the AI bubble...
Commerzbank's FX team highlights that the People's Bank of China rejected claims the yuan is undervalued, linking export strength to industrial competitiveness rather than currency manipulation.
United Overseas Bank's (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/SGD remains supported within the Monetary Authority of Singapore's policy band, with SGD NEER likely between 1.50% and 1.80% above midpoint, implying a 1.279 - 1.283 range. Short-term price action shows limited upward momentum, with resistance...
Next week starts quietly, but it does not stay that way. The economic calendar gets going on Wednesday with the US CPI report, followed by Australian employment that evening. Thursday brings UK GDP before a busy 8:30 AM window in the US, with producer prices, retail sales, jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed...
Commerzbank analysts note Taiwan's September trade surplus hit a record USD23.6bn, with exports surging 60.9% year-on-year on strong AI-related demand. The Central Bank of the Republic of China may lean more hawkish if inflation's uptrend persists.
After a call with Russian President Putin, President Donald Trump said on Friday Russia will immediately supply more than 300K tons of diesel to the US and global markets. He put the next shipments at 500K tons in November and 1 million tons after that.
DBS Group Research expects China's exports to grow 25.7% year-on-year in September, supported by strong electronics demand and improving manufacturing PMIs.
Four sessions after its highest level since April 2025, the Dollar Index hasn't got back to it. The index trades near 102.25 and has made a lower high in each session since Wednesday.
On Friday, US President Donald Trump said he spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who agreed to immediately supply over 300K tons of diesel fuel to the US and the global market, add 500K tons for November, and deliver 1 million tons "immediately thereafter."
Silver (XAG/USD) price rallies over 2.80% on Friday as buyers buy the dip at $59.17, pushing the white metal above $60.00 to hit a two-day high of $61.19. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $60.86.
OCBC's Christopher Wong notes that Singapore Dollar (SGD) has held relatively steady despite a firmer US Dollar (USD) and higher Oil prices, with MAS tightening expectations underpinning the S$NEER. USD/SGD trades near recent highs with intact bullish momentum.
Gold (XAU/USD) price advances more than 1.40% on Friday, capitaliszng on a dip in US Treasury yields and a softer Greenback, as recent US data suggests households are becoming pessimistic about the economy, while investors seem confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will stay pat on rates.
USD/JPY trades with a positive bias on Friday as the Japanese Yen (JPY) underperforms across the board following a sharp decline in Japanese government bond yields.
Halpenny highlights a new PBoC document defending China's FX policy and rejecting claims that CNY drives its trade surplus, instead pointing to manufacturing competitiveness. He notes BIS REER data showing a 20% fall from the 2022 peak and IMF estimates of 12 - 20% undervaluation, suggesting CNY is undervalued but...
MUFG's Michael Wan highlights a mixed global backdrop for Asian currencies, with US Treasuries rallying and the US Dollar (USD) somewhat weaker, while tech stocks decline. He notes resilient Asia macro data, including strong Taiwan exports and South Korea's current account.
In financial markets, credibility is built through the quality of the information you deliver, the analysis you provide and the audience you reach. This is what investingLive, formerly ForexLive built over the years. US Treasury Secretary Bessent has just hired Judy Shelton as adviser . She's an economist who was...
Headlines: Oil prices ease as traders unwind the escalation risk premium after Trump rules out strikes on Iran Gold erases its weekly losses as Trump rules out attacks against Iran before the midterm elections Economic data spotlight: US inflation expectations in focus in today's Michigan consumer survey Markets:...
Gold (XAU/USD) trades on the front foot on Friday but struggles to extend its advance as the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields show signs of stabilisation following Thursday's sharp pullback.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is up 0.3% at around 0.6980 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday. However, the pair is struggling to extend gains beyond 0.6990.
Gold (XAU/USD) accelerates its recovery on Friday, favoured by a softer US Dollar, amid a moderate pullback in US yields.
United Overseas Bank (UOB) analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/CHF shows slightly increased downside momentum, with scope to test 0.8290 but limited odds of a sustained break lower. For the coming days, they maintain that USD/CHF has likely entered a range-trading phase between 0.8245 and 0.8365,...
The University of Michigan (UoM) will release the preliminary estimate of the United States (US) October Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday.
MUFG's Derek Halpenny highlights Europe's economic resilience following Germany's upward Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth revisions but warns that potential European Union (EU) import restrictions and additional tariffs on Chinese goods could escalate trade tensions and weigh on the Euro (EUR).
Societe Generale strategists note the National Bank of Romania (NBR) kept its policy rate at 6.50% and reinforced a hawkish stance as earlier inflation risks are now part of the baseline.
Tatha Ghose at Commerzbank describes NBP Governor Glapinski's latest press conference as a net dovish surprise versus expectations for a clearer hike signal.
ING's Francesco Pesole expects Canada's September jobs report to show a modest payroll rebound and slightly higher unemployment, not enough to justify an October Bank of Canada hike. He notes that a December move is fully priced, while USD/CAD remains dominated by the Dollar, with a sustained move below 1.420 seen as...
Statistics Canada will release its September Labour Force Survey on Friday, with markets anticipating a modest recovery in employment following August's sharp decline.
Coming up later today, we'll have the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey at 1400 GMT. And while the headline estimate will offer some insight into how US consumers are feeling about the economy, I reckon the standout figure will be the inflation expectations figures. As a reminder, year-ahead inflation...
The Indian Rupee (INR) trades slightly higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday. The USD/INR pair corrects to near 96.55, but is still close to its all-time high of 97.00. The Indian currency gets a much-needed reprieve from a corrective move in United States (US) Treasury Yields.
US refiners set for windfall Q3 profits as wars push diesel margins to records Gold rises toward $4,180 as Treasury yields ease from 24-year highs and dollar pauses Nasdaq CEO says tokenization could free tens of billions in trapped collateral Trump disclosed up to $1.6 million in Nvidia stock buys as he honoured CEO...
The review is aimed as much at bond investors as at the budget, since concern over how Takaichi's pledges will be funded has pushed 10-year JGB yields to multi-decade highs. Credible savings that cap new debt issuance near 40 trillion yen could ease some fiscal risk premium in long-dated JGBs and lend modest support...
The circa 5.5% drop in Oracle shares shows investors are sensitive to any sign that power constraints could delay AI capacity and push out the timeline for its free cash flow to turn positive. The force majeure notice on Project Jupiter raises the risk of disputes and delays at one of its most important sites. For...
The mixed readings are unlikely to shift Bank of Japan rate expectations decisively in either direction, limiting the immediate impact on the yen and Japanese government bonds. A smaller annual decline offers modest support to the case for tightening, but the weak monthly gain and nine straight contractions undercut...
If the argument holds, the AI build-out is a source of upward pressure on bond yields, power prices and wages for scarce technical staff, which would keep financing costs high for sectors outside technology. That fits with this week's 24-year high in 10-year Treasury yields, which Bloomberg partly attributed to...
The index is not a market mover, but it supports the case that wealth flows toward jurisdictions with strong property rights and open capital markets, which favours established hubs such as Switzerland, Singapore and Hong Kong. The finding that capital markets and banking are the weakest pillars globally points to...
The GBP/JPY seesaws on Thursday, poised to end the session unchanged at 208.87, after prices traveled from the low of the day (LOD) of 208.20, towards a daily high of 209.40, before settling at around current levels.
Gold (XAU/USD) price edges higher on Thursday, underpinned by lower US Treasury yields and a weaker US Dollar, even as Federal Reserve (Fed) officials support further tightening by the US central bank. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,130, up 0.48%, after bottoming near $4,103.
Trump says: We will not be attacking Iran any time soon Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 tracker 3.6% vs 3.7% prior US August wholesale inventories +0.5% vs +0.7% expected US weekly initial jobless claims 197K vs 200K expected BOE's Bailey: Mon pol needs an unwavering commitment to returning inflation to target Arab sources:...
This is unlikely to garnetr much attention: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
UOB strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann describe USD/CNH as holding largely unchanged, but with a slight increase in downward momentum. Intraday, they see the bias tilted lower toward 6.6950, with resistance at 6.7055 and 6.7100 and a clear break below 6.6950 deemed unlikely. Over 1 - 3 weeks, they expect...
The Mexican Peso (MXN) depreciates about 0.91% against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday amid positive US data, while Bank of Mexico (Banxico) minutes from last meeting indicated inflation edging higher, a trend confirmed by the September print.
ING's Lynn Song highlights Taiwan's record trade performance, with the September surplus hitting US$23.6bn on a 60.9% year-on-year export surge, largely driven by tech-related machinery and electrical equipment. Despite strong exports, equities and foreign inflows, the Taiwan Dollar has remained relatively subdued,...
A sudden bout of selling pressure has weighed on the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, motivating it to abandon the area of recent tops, all in response to comments from President Donald Trump and the subsequent pullback in crude Oil prices.
MUFG's Lloyd Chan previews Malaysia's Budget 2027, highlighting that prior fiscal reforms and subsidy rationalization provide a buffer against higher Oil prices.
St. Louis Federal Reserve (Fed) President Alberto Musalem said on Thursday that inflation is elevated and that to bring it back to the 2% goal, "more monetary policy firming will be required."
USD/JPY edges lower on Thursday as a pullback in US Treasury yields pauses the Greenback's advance, giving the Japanese Yen (JPY) some breathing room. Traders assess fresh Middle East developments and central bank signals. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 157.71, down 0.24% on the day.
UOB strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/SGD rebounded to 1.2810 before closing at 1.2797. While upward momentum is rebuilding, it remains insufficient to signal a sustained advance. The pair could edge above 1.2810, but the major resistance at 1.2835 is unlikely to be reached.
High yield: 5.618% WI level at the time of the auction: 5.617% Tail: 0.1 basis point vs the average of -0.1 basis point Bid to cover: 2.54X vs the average of 2.41X Directs: 20.89% vs the average of 20.6% Indirects: 72.32% vs the average of 69.1% Dealers: 6.79% vs the average of 10.3% Auction grade: B Overall, a solid...
According to Arab sources (unverified) there have been several severe explosions in the Strait of Hormuz. A tanker was targeted according to the source. Geopolitical risk from the Middle East remains a problem for traders. US stocks have reversed and moved back to the downside with the NASDAQ index testing the low of...
US President Donald Trump posted on his Truth Social account that discussions with Iran continue and that the US will not attack Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections, held on November 3.
102.50 has stopped the Dollar Index on Monday, Wednesday and Thursday, and a call for more rate hikes from Fed Governor Waller on Thursday didn't get it any further. The index trades near 102.30, inside the range it has held since October 1.
Markets: 10-year Treasury yields up 6 bps to 5.345% WTI crude up 4.1% to $92.60 USD leads, AUD lags on the day Gold up 0.2% to $4,121 European stocks lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.6% Bitcoin down 1% to $82,451 Once again, investors are dealing with the same old story in markets in European morning trade today. The...
Lee Hardman at MUFG highlights that the Pound has rallied sharply against the Euro as Euro-zone fiscal concerns intensify, driving EUR/GBP to fresh year-to-date lows.
Brown Brothers Harriman's (BBH) Elias Haddad highlights that EUR/USD trades heavy below 1.1200 ahead of the ECB Account release. Above-target Eurozone inflation and a firmer growth outlook give the ECB scope for further tightening, limiting divergence with the Fed.
Gold (XAU/USD) reverses its modest recovery on Thursday as a stronger US Dollar (USD) and rising US Treasury yields cap upside attempts, leaving the metal in a bearish consolidation phase near two-month lows.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) loses ground for the fourth consecutive day against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, as the Swiss National Bank vice chairman discarded any change to the bank's monetary policy despite growing risks from the War in Iran.
Silver price (XAG/USD) posts a fresh two-month low at around $58.50 during the European trading session on Thursday. The white metal faces intense selling pressure as United States (US) bond yields eye more upside on the back of recovery signs in oil prices.
The People's Bank of China (PBoC) said on Thursday that China has neither the need nor the intention to depreciate the Chinese Yuan (CNY) to gain a competitive advantage in international trade, according to a statement reported by Reuters.
UOB strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/CHF price action has been quiet, with the pair expected to stay confined intraday between 0.8310 and 0.8345. Over a 1 - 3 week horizon, they reiterate that USD/CHF has likely entered a range-trading phase between 0.8245 and 0.8365. On a 1 - 3 month view,...
Swiss National Bank (SNB) Vice Chairman Antoine Martin sees no need to adjust monetary policy at this stage, as inflation remains within the central bank's 0%-2% price stability range. "We remain comfortably within the price stability range of 0% to 2%," Martin said, according to Reuters, adding tha
Societe Generale strategists Morning Briefing highlight USD/JPY's sharp rebound from a September low near 152.90, with the pair now capped by key moving averages. They note a sideways pattern between 156.35 and 159, with a break of this range set to confirm direction.
Gold (XAU/USD) ticks up on Thursday, trading at the $4,125 area after bouncing up from two-month lows at $4.066 on Wednesday.
Brown Brothers Harriman's (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that higher Oil prices are pressuring stocks and bonds while supporting a firmer Dollar. The FOMC minutes showed most participants backing another rate increase by year-end, with futures fully pricing a 25 bps hike to 4.00 - 4.25%.
ING's Chris Turner writes that EUR/GBP has been pressured by French-related Euro risk but Sterling may gain further support if the Bank of England aligns with other central banks and hikes rates. Markets will watch centrist policymakers Andrew Bailey and Claire Lombardelli for any hint of backing a hike. ING sees...
Ah, remember the days when borrowing money was almost ridiculously cheap? That did not seem too long ago but I think we can safely say that those days are looking rather distant now. Judging by how bond yields have continued to surge to fresh highs in decades, it seems that one thing is rather clear. If you want...
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Ethereum came under heavy selling pressure yesterday, falling around 5 - 6%. The move wasn't triggered by a major Ethereum-specific negative development. Instead, the selloff was driven by a combination of deteriorating ETF flows amid a broader risk-off environment. US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded...
Samsung profit tops 100 trillion won for first time, but shares slip Gold rebounds from two-month low, but Pepperstone says $4,275 break needed Japan's answer to FedWatch: TFX launches BoJ meeting-by-meeting rate futures China bucks global bond rout as 10-year yield touches 1.7% PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for...
A gap of more than 3.5 percentage points between Chinese and US 10-year yields keeps downward pressure on the yuan and makes the currency attractive to borrow for carry trades, leaving the People's Bank of China leaning on capital controls and its daily fixing to contain weakness. Central bank buying signals that...
The survey reinforces Japan's acute sensitivity to the Iran war: with almost all crude imports sourced from the Middle East, any further disruption to Gulf shipping ( like this ), such as this week's tanker attack north of Qatar, feeds directly into corporate costs and margins. That leaves energy-intensive sectors...
Commerzbank's Asia FX team highlights a constructive near-term outlook for the Vietnamese Dong (VND), supported by strong Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows and robust growth. USD/VND stayed around 25,994, below its July peak, leaving VND about 1.2% stronger year-to-date.
Silver price extends its losses, following Gold's path, as the latest Fed Minutes showed that officials expect another rate increase towards the year-end. The XAG/USD trades at $59.69, down by over 1.67%.
The biggest news ahead of the session here today is that mainland Chinese markets reopen after a week long holiday. China's absence seems to have been keenly felt by gold! I'll pop more on gold separately. The data agenda should be not very impactufl: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Christopher Wong at OCBC Bank notes that USD/KRW continues to trade heavy as exporter US Dollar (USD) selling and a softer external backdrop support the Korean Won (KRW), even as foreign equity outflows cap gains.
Gold (XAU/USD) price pressures on the downside on Wednesday, yet it has reclaimed the $4,100 mark as US Treasury yields erased some of its earlier gains and turned negative.
FOMC Minutes: Most participants assessed another hike would likely be appropriate by year end The US treasury sells $39 billion of 10 year notes at a high yield of 5.300% versus WI level of 5.317% Tropical Storm Isaias spins up in the Gulf New York Fed inflation expectations: One year inflation expectations hit the...
Commerzbank economists note Thailand's September CPI rose 2.8% year-on-year, below consensus but the highest since April, bringing headline inflation close to the upper end of the Bank of Thailand's target range. They expect headline inflation to rise further on persistent supply-side pressures, yet see demand-side...
The US Dollar (USD) has resumed its uptrend, advancing to two-day highs while rapidly forgetting Tuesday's hiccup. The extra gains in the Greenback have come in tandem with the equally decent advance in US Treasury yields on the belly and long end of the curve.
Societe Generale strategist Michelle Lam analyzes recent Chinese policy moves, noting that new property and monetary easing should keep growth on track and help China meet its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) target at the lower end of the range.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil trades lower on Wednesday, giving up earlier gains as a stronger US Dollar (USD) and recovering Middle East exports offset support from an unexpected decline in US crude inventories.
Standard Chartered economist Tim Leelahaphan expects the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to keep its policy rate at 1.0% through 2026 and 2027, with the BoT prioritising economic growth over inflation. He highlights asymmetric risks around this on-hold call, noting that any hikes would likely be gradual while cuts could be...
USD/JPY trades in a narrow range on Wednesday, with the Japanese Yen (JPY) holding a slight advantage over the US Dollar (USD) as traders assess hawkish Bank of Japan (BoJ) signals. Intervention risks near the 160.00 level also keep traders cautious.
The New York Fed survey of consumer expectations One year inflation 3.9% vs 3.6% prior Three year inflation 3.3% vs 3.2% prior Five year inflation unchanged at %3% Year-ahead expected spending rose to the highest since May 2023 Labor market expectations were mostly positive The Fed won't be happy about this but will...
All participants at the Federal Reserve's (Fed) September 15 - 16 meeting supported the 25-basis-point rate increase, while most judged that another hike would probably be appropriate by the end of the year.
Headlines: Treasury yields continue to break higher as 30-year hits 5.70%, putting markets on edge Crude oil rebounds as persistent supply risks continue to outweigh improving physical exports Bitcoin dips as over $400 million in crypto longs are liquidated in just one hour Chart of the day: EUR/CHF is becoming a...
Rabobank expects EUR/CHF to remain close to the 0.93 area in the coming weeks as Eurozone fiscal tensions continue to support safe-haven demand for the Swiss Franc.
Brown Brothers Harriman's (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) 25 bps rate hike to 5.50% failed to support the Indian Rupee.
The Euro (EUR) comes under pressure against its peers again on Wednesday after a relief recovery the previous day. In the European trade, the major currency is down 0.63% at around 1.1188 against the US Dollar.
Societe Generale's Central and Eastern European (CEE) strategy team expects the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to keep rates at 3.75% today, with Governor Glapiński likely to flag inflation risks and prepare markets for a November hike. They see a hawkish stance offering some Polish Zloty (PLN) support but still expect...
Gold (XAU/USD) edges lower on Wednesday, losing nearly 1.20% as the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields resume their advance following a modest pullback the previous day.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) loses ground for the third consecutive day against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, retracing the rebound witnessed late last week.
European Central Bank (ECB) official and Governor of the Bank of Portugal Santos Pereira said during the European trading session has ruled out fears of second-round inflation effects. Pereira advised that France should pursue fiscal prudence.
Gold (XAU/USD) finds itself pulled in two directions: official-sector demand continues to underpin prices even at elevated levels, while the technical picture has deteriorated after the metal failed to hold above its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), leaving key supports exposed.
MUFG's Derek Halpenny highlights growing downside risks for the Japanese Yen versus the US Dollar as USD/JPY tests its 200-day moving average near 158.50.
OCBC Bank strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong argue that the US Dollar's (USD) structural support from the US technology and AI sectors remains intact, but they are more cautious on further near-term USD gains.
It's a brand new week but the bond market is still not giving broader markets much room to breathe. Treasury yields are once again pushing higher again today, with the 30-year yields touching 5.70% - their highest since 2002. Meanwhile, 10-year yields are nudging up to around 5.32% and closing in on levels not seen in...
Gold (XAU/USD) retraces Tuesday's gains on Wednesday and resumes its broader bearish trend, with the US Dollar (USD) appreciating across the board, as investors brace for the release of the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting.
If tariffs were supposed to bring down the US trade deficit, then the latest numbers clearly show that things are a reminder that things are not that simple. The US trade figures for August showed the deficit widening to $105.6 billion, up from $92.8 billion previously. But more strikingly, imports jumped 4.3% to a...
The softer US jobs report on Friday last week continues to paint a softer picture of the labour market, yet there is still one part of the story that doesn't seem to line up. The September non-farm payrolls rose by just 29k, well below expectations of 90k, while the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%. Meanwhile, July...
The Indian Rupee ((INR) weakens significantly against the US Dollar (USD), following the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. The USD/INR pair jumps to near 96.80, the highest level seen in four months.
Houthis claim strikes on three Saudi sites including Riyadh airport, unconfirmed Households weather RBA hikes as debt-to-asset ratio hits 1997 low, Deutsche Bank says RBI decision today: most economists expect a hike to 5.50%, MUFG sees a hold Ether fi joins the stablecoin rush: why every crypto platform wants its own...
Deutsche Bank's argument is hawkish at heart. If each hike does less damage to household cash flow than in the past, the RBA may need to do more to slow demand, which keeps a fifth hike in November in play and supports the short end of the Australian yield curve. That would also lend some support to the Australian...
The detail that matters most for the Bank of Japan is base pay. Regular wages holding steady near 4% points to durable wage growth rather than a bonus-driven spike, which is the kind of evidence policymakers want before tightening further. That supports the yen and front-end Japanese government bond yields at the...
The split matters for the Bank of Japan. Strength in manufacturing supports the case that the economy can absorb further rate increases, but respondents in property and services directly cited higher interest rates and weaker household spending as drags. That mix fits the gradual, no-pre-set-pace approach board member...
Tuesday's rise in GBP/USD came from the Dollar side. The pair was flat through Bank of England (BoE) external member Mann's warning on inflation, then gained at the same two points in the session as EUR/USD, leaving EUR/GBP close to unchanged.
Oil: Private survey of inventory shows a headline crude oil draw S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 close at records Crude oil rebounds as Hormuz tensions rise. Can buyers take back full control? Fed Schmid: Labor force remains a in a good place Although the broader indices are looking to close at record levels,...
United Overseas Bank strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann expect USD/CNH to edge lower intraday while staying confined to a narrow 6.7000 - 6.7100 band. Over the coming one to three weeks, they maintain a range-trading view between 6.6950 and 6.7270. On a one to three month basis, they see USD/CNH continuing to...
There isn't much on the economic and event agends during the Aisa-Pacific timezone to shift marekts around too much upon release. Nnote that ECB board member Piero Cipollone will be speaking at an event in The Philippines, in a panel discussion at Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee International Research Fair. This...
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong observe USD/SGD consolidating near recent highs, with bullish daily momentum showing signs of fading and RSI near overbought.
Standard Chartered Bank economists Jonathan Koh and Edward Lee now expect Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas to raise its policy rate by 25bps to 5.25% in October, revising their previous call for a hold. They attribute the move to broader September inflation, higher Oil prices and Philippine Peso depreciation. The bank...
The US Dollar (USD) has come under fresh downside pressure on Tuesday, slipping back toward of two-day lows as shrinking fiscal jitters in France appear to have lent some support to the broader risk-linked galaxy.
Kansas City Federal Reserve (Fed) President Jeffrey Schmid said on Tuesday that the labor market remains in a good place, and he remains concerned about the high cost of living, saying "inflation is frustrating, must be fixed."
Silver (XAG/USD) holds firm on Tuesday, supported by a pullback in the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields. At the time of writing, the metal trades around $61.50, up 0.75% on the day.
San Francisco Federal Reserve (Fed) President Mary Daly said she supported September's rate hike and that additional rate hikes may be needed, depending on external shocks.
Volkmar Baur at Commerzbank highlights China's new anti-dumping probe into EU nitrotoluenes as likely linked to broader trade frictions. A Franco-German non-paper urges tougher EU action on dumping, subsidies and currency manipulation ahead of Trade Commissioner Sefcovic's China trip. Failure to deliver concrete...
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rebounds on Tuesday as shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz keep Oil prices supported despite improving Middle East exports, with US-Iran talks still deadlocked.
There is a little change in the market after the auction resultsThe first leg of the 3 coupon auctions this week including the 3 year, 10 year and 30 year is complete. Summary WI level at the time of the auction: 4.934% High yield: 4.932% WI level at the time of the auction: 4.934% Stop-through: 0.2 basis points vs...
Brent fell below $98 a barrel as Gulf exports picked up, and bond yields in Europe and the US fell with it. France got the most relief, as the extra yield investors want for holding its 10-year debt over Germany's narrowed to about 1.3 percentage points from more than 1.5 on Friday.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) advances about 0.40% on Tuesday as the Greenback retreats from multi-month highs, boosted by hawkish comments from a Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member, while a widening US trade deficit weighed on the Greenback.
Headlines: EUR/USD rebounds as French government takes steps to reduce deficit, narrowing OAT-Bund spread Ethereum consolidates at a major trendline as Glamsterdam hits Sepolia testnet. What's next? The price action in gold remains rangebound as US-Iran stalemate and CPI risk cap the upside Connecting the dots: How...
Societe Generale's Kenneth Broux flags that a surprise upside in Czech inflation to 2.5% has reinforced the Czech National Bank's hawkish stance. With policymakers signalling a possible hold or hike, attention turns to core and services inflation data that could justify a November rate increase.
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight EUR/USD caught between French political-fiscal risks and a potentially capped US Dollar. European bond turbulence is feeding expectations of a more dovish ECB, while US yields rise on economic resilience. Markets still price over three Fed hikes despite...
EUR/USD has slipped to fresh 17-month lows near 1.1160, weighed down by escalating political and fiscal uncertainties across the Eurozone.
United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight that GBP/USD traded sideways on Monday, closing slightly lower near 1.3225, with intraday price action lacking clear momentum. They expect near-term range trading to persist.
Silver price (XAG/USD) holds its recovery move seen in the early European trade from $60.30 to near $61.00 ahead of the opening of United States (US) markets on Tuesday.
Elias Haddad at Brown Brothers Harriman highlights that the Dollar has trimmed some recent gains but retains support from strong US data and Fed expectations. September ISM services and manufacturing indexes point to resilient growth, while Prices Paid suggest intensifying inflation.
Gold (XAU/USD) rebounds on Tuesday as a modest pullback in US Treasury yields weighs on the US Dollar (USD), helping the metal recover after falling to a two-month low of $4,104 during Asian trading hours. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,156, up 0.41% on the day.
MUFG's Lee Hardman highlights that the Euro remains under selling pressure, with EUR/USD testing support at 1.1200 as Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez calls an early election for November 29. Opinion polls point to gains for the People's Party, potentially in coalition with VoX.
France's bond market recently sent a strong message to policymakers. The spread between French and German 10-year government bonds surged above 150 basis points last week, reaching its widest level since the euro-area debt crisis. French borrowing costs approached 5%, while concerns over the country's deficit, debt...
With all that is happening in markets, there are plenty of charts worth watching in Europe right now. However, this in particular may be one of the most important. The gap between French and German 10-year bond yields has surged over the past month, as investors are demanding a much bigger premium for holding French...
The Euro (EUR) posts a mild recovery against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, with the EUR/USD pair trading a few pips below 1.1250 at the time of writing, extending its rebound from the 17-month low, near 1.1160, hit on Monday.
The Indian Rupee (INR) trades lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday due to the continuous surge in global bond yields. The USD/INR pair rises to near 96.43, the highest level seen in over two months.
Solana launches open settlement standard for institutions, with JPMorgan input ICYMI: Citi raises bitcoin target to $113,000 and ether to $3,028 as crypto inflows return Reports that Hormuz crude flows near 76% of prewar levels. Diesel shortage persists. Trump's red diesel order unlikely to cut most pump prices, says...
The Treasurer's warning puts fiscal pressure alongside monetary tightening as a theme for Australian markets, with higher interest costs likely to constrain spending in the mid-year update. A rising debt servicing bill could add to supply concerns for Australian government bonds if deficits widen, keeping upward...
Westpac's call for a November follow-up hike, despite the sentiment slump, signals that inflation risk still outweighs demand weakness for the RBA. That keeps support under Australian short-end yields and should limit downside for the Australian dollar on soft domestic data. Fuel is the key transmission channel, so...
New Zealand's firms are more upbeat and raising fewer prices, and the second half of that matters more for the Kiwi. NZD/USD trades just above 0.5600 after a fresh low beneath it, back near its November 2025 low.
US Treasury yields edged up at the beginning of the week, with the 30- and 10-year yields reaching multi-year highs as inflation expectations rose, as shown in a US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) survey indicating that business activity in the services sector slowed while input prices surged.
Reports that Spain's government was preparing an early election pushed EUR/USD to its lowest since May 2025, and hedge-fund selling in Asia set off option barriers that deepened the fall, traders said. The pair has since recovered more than half of that drop and trades back above 1.1200.
The odds of an October Fed hike have fallen from about two in three in late September to roughly one in five, and GBP/USD hasn't left the range it has traded in since September 24. Monday's range is entirely inside Friday's, and the pair trades just above 1.3200.
Firms widely expect interest rates to rise over the coming year, and signs that spare capacity is shrinking would support that view. Easing cost and pricing gauges, however, give the Reserve Bank of New Zealand some room on the inflation side. Oil is the main swing factor: the renewed US-Iran conflict has lifted fuel...
The Mexican Peso (MXN) posted back-to-back bullish days as USD/MXN edges lower by about 0.34% on Monday amid softer-than-expected US data and a mediocre Nonfarm Payrolls report last Friday. The exotic pair trades at 18.08 after peaking near 18.26.
The Nasdaq composite and NASDAQ 100 leads US stocks higher BoJ's Ueda in focus as markets weigh a back-to-back October rate hike Crude oil technicals: Middle east tension has crude oil futures moving higher.What next technically? You Have to BELIEVE in something: Why I trust the 100 and 200 moving averages ISM non-...
China remains on holiday. Mainland markets reopen on 8 October. During the Tokyo afternoon today we'll hear from Bank of Japan Governor Ueda. I'll get a preview of this posted separately. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Standard Chartered's Edward Lee expects the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to deliver another very slight tightening in October, raising the SGD NEER slope to 1.5% from 1.25% while keeping the band parameters unchanged.
Silver (XAG/USD) price drifts higher by over 1.14% on Monday, even as US Treasury yields rise and the Greenback extends its gains by 0.26%, as per the US Dollar Index (DXY). XAG/USD trades at $61.13, after bouncing off daily lows of $60.36.
United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategist Quek Ser Leang reports USD/CNH slipped to 6.7008 before closing at 6.7041, with intraday price action expected to stay between 6.7000 and 6.7105. For the coming 1 - 3 weeks, he continues to see the pair confined to a 6.6950 - 6.7270 range.
Gold (XAU/USD) prices drift lower on Monday as a strong US Dollar and high US Treasury yields undermine the precious metal, which has failed to rally as investors expect a less hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) and have priced out a rate hike this month.
Traders have taken about one quarter-point hike out of their European Central Bank (ECB) forecasts since mid-September, betting the ECB will stop raising rates because of a French debt selloff.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains on the back foot against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday as the wide yield differential continues to favour the Greenback, while broader structural headwinds weigh on the Japanese currency. At the time of writing, USD/JPY trades around 158.10, up 0.17% on the day.
The US Dollar (USD) has picked up extra pace on Monday, reaching fresh tops on the back of persistent safe-haven demand, while fiscal concerns in Europe continued to weigh on the broader risk complex.
Markets: 10-year Treasury yields flat at 5.277% AUD leads, EUR and NZD lag Gold up 0.3% to $4,153 Brent crude up 0.3% to $102.60 European stocks mostly higher; S&P 500 futures down 0.1% Bitcoin up 0.3% to $86,099 It's a brand new week but same old story for markets. The softer US jobs report on Friday brought some...
MUFG's Lee Hardman notes that unwanted tightening in Euro-zone financial conditions is prompting markets to pare back expectations for further ECB rate hikes.
United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategist Quek Ser Leang reports AUD/USD closed at 0.6951 after a brief spike to 0.6976, with intraday price action expected to stay between 0.6930 and 0.6975.
The British Pound (GBP) claws back some of its early losses against the US Dollar (USD), but is still 0.15% down to near 1.3220 during the European trading session on Monday. The GBP/USD pair recovers slightly as the US Dollar Index retreats after hitting a fresh annual high near 102.53.
DBS strategist Philip Wee explains that EUR/USD's four-week decline reflects shifting risk balances, with renewed Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening overshadowing the European Central Bank (ECB) and France's fiscal issues overshadowing US concerns.
Silver price (XAG/USD) is up 2.3% to near $61.80 during the European trading session on Monday. The white metal starts the week on a strong note as traders have scaled back Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate expectations after soft United States (US) official labor market data for September.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) has retraced previous losses on Monday and trades practically flat against the US Dollar (USD), hardly affected by the bond market turmoil that has crushed investors' appètite for risk.
Gold (XAU/USD) starts the week with a mild positive bias but remains rangebound, caught between easing Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike bets and a stronger US Dollar (USD). US Treasury yields also remain elevated near multi-year highs, limiting demand for the non-yielding metal.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is testing fresh yearly highs near the 102.50 zone, powered by independent Euro (EUR) weakness and relative resilience in the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate path.
ING's Chris Turner says Brazilian assets are set to rally after Sunday's presidential vote, where Flavio Bolsonaro secured 47% versus President Lula's 45%. He expects markets to assume remaining votes lean Bolsonaro, sees currency and bonds benefiting from his fiscal austerity and deregulation agenda, and projects...
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that the US Dollar (USD) has started Q4 2026 on a firm footing, supported by resilient United States (US) growth and hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) risks.
Gold (XAU/USD) trims some losses on Monday but remains trapped within previous ranges, with upside attempts limited below $4,200 and with two-month lows of $4,110 at a short distance.
Eurozone October Sentix investor confidence 2.7 vs 5.0 expected Prior 5.1 The mood among euro area investors has taken a step back in October, with the details being slightly more telling than the headline drop itself. The Sentix investor confidence index fell to 2.7 in October from 5.1 in the month before, missing...
Eurozone September final services PMI 53.0 vs 53.0 prelim Prior 51.6 Eurozone September final composite PMI 53.1 vs 53.1 prelim Prior 52.0 The breakdownThe final numbers reaffirm what we already know from the preliminary estimates, as private sector business activity increased at the quickest rate in nearly...
The Indian Rupee (INR) trades marginally higher against the US Dollar (USD) after an extended weekend. Indian markets were closed on Friday due to Mahatma Gandhi Jayanti.
The softer US jobs report on Friday might have offered markets some much-needed relief before the weekend but I don't think it changes the main thing traders should be watching this week. And that is still the bond market. The September jobs report showed non-farm payrolls rising by just 29k, well below expectations....
Japan officials toughen tone on yen as USD/JPY holds near 158 Nikkei jumps 2.5% to three-month high as AI stocks rally on softer Fed hike bets Saudi Aramco cuts Arab Light price to Asia by $3, widest discount since 2020 Fed minutes preview: one more hike guidance meets softer data as October odds fade Oil slips toward...
Markets are unlikely to react unless the situation escalates, as contacts have so far tested negative and officials insist there is no outbreak. The main risk is confirmation of plague with secondary cases among those under observation, which could stoke broader health-scare headlines and modest safe-haven demand....
The survey leans hawkish for the BOJ despite softer headline growth. Output price inflation near record highs, rising payrolls and building backlogs point to capacity pressure that supports the case for another hike. S&P Global explicitly flags October as possible, which may firm up market pricing for a near-term
Oil is the main channel here. The surge in energy prices tied to the Middle East conflict lifted milk powder and aluminium, the main drivers of September's gains. Combined with a weaker New Zealand dollar, that gives exporters a solid boost in local-currency returns, which supports farm incomes and the terms of trade....
Chalmers's warning on debt servicing costs puts the spotlight on the global rise in bond yields, which is now feeding directly into government budget arithmetic. That keeps fiscal supply and credit concerns on the radar for Australian government bonds ahead of the mid-year update. His focus on energy-driven inflation...
The survey sends mixed signals for the Australian dollar and rates. Slower activity, job shedding and weaker confidence argue against further tightening. Accelerating output price inflation, running above its long-run average, supports the case for the RBA to stay hawkish. On balance, the inflation detail is likely to...
Silver price retreats on Friday, dropping about 0.76% as US Treasury yields edged higher, capping US Dollar depreciation, while investors punished the Greenback following a soft US jobs report. The XAG/USD trades at $60.50 at the time of writing.
The US employment report gave stock buyers something to cheer about on Friday. Payroll growth missed expectations, earlier months were revised lower and wage growth slowed. The initial reaction was lower Treasury yields, a weaker dollar and higher stocks as traders reduced expectations for another October Fed hike....
The Mexican Peso recovers some ground versus the US Dollar, gaining 0.5%, but it remains poised to end the week with a 3% loss as investors exit the "carry trade" amid a narrowing of the interest rate differential between the US and Mexico to its lowest level since 2015.
Gold prices dropped on Friday, with the yellow metal struggling to decisively break the $4,200 milestone. The precious metal is down nearly 1% as US Treasury yields edge higher following a less-than-stellar US employment report.
The new trading week brings a lighter economic calendar, but there are still several events that can move currencies and yields. The main highlights are Monday's U.S. ISM services report, Wednesday's Federal Reserve minutes, Thursday's ECB monetary policy accounts, and Friday's Canadian employment and U.S. consumer...
Chicago Federal Reserve (Fed) President Austan Goolsbee said in an interview with Fox Business that the labor market is steady and that "the inflation side of the Fed's job is more important."
NZD/USD advances on Friday and trades around 0.5610 at the time of writing, up 0.12% on the day. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) benefits mainly from the decline in the US Dollar (USD), which comes under pressure following a significantly weaker-than-expected employment report.
US employers added 29K jobs in September against a forecast of 90K, and July and August were revised down by a combined 60K. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and hourly pay grew 3.0% over the year against a 3.2% forecast.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) rises by over 0.41% against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, as the US Unemployment Rate rises amid a worse-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls report for September. At the time of writing, GBP/USD trades at 1.3250 after bouncing off daily lows beneath 1.3200.
TD Securities' Macro Research's FX team notes the softer US payrolls data is only marginally negative for the Dollar, with the labor market still described as buoyant and neither overheating nor deteriorating.
TD Securities analysts characterize the upcoming September FOMC minutes as largely outdated given subsequent employment and PCE data. The minutes are expected to show disagreement over how much further tightening is needed, but broad consensus that policy should remain more restrictive.
USD/JPY trades around 157.65 on Friday at the time of writing, down 0.28% on the day. The pair briefly dropped to 156.95 following the release of the United States (US) employment report before erasing the entire move and returning to pre-release levels.
Royal Bank of Canada analysts review Canada's September labour report, the first full dataset since U.S. Section 338 tariffs took effect. They estimate around 0.4% of Canada's GDP and employment is tied to tariff-listed US demand.
MUFG analysts Lin Li, Michael Wan, Lloyd Chan and Khang Sek Lee highlight that Asia FX will be driven by the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) finely balanced decision on 7 October.
ABN Amro's Rogier Quaedvlieg notes September US labour market data came in weaker than expected, with payrolls at 29k versus consensus 90k and prior months revised down by 60k. He see the report as mixed but consistent with its base case and reducing pressure for an October Fed hike.
White House NEC Director Kevin Hassett discussed the US jobs report and the administration's economic outlook on Bloomberg TV: The jobs report was broadly in line with expectations, and the data point to a very strong consumer. He expects a strong holiday shopping season. The administration respects the Federal...
Headlines: US jobs report faces a higher bar as bond market tensions raise the stakes What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP? Stocks rebound as bond yields cool, but NFP threatens to reset the mood How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events? Eurozone inflation jumps to 3.8% in...
It's the final countdown to the September non-farm payrolls report. Take a look at: Preview: September non-farm payrolls by the numbers That report highlights the seasonals around this number, which could make it a volatile one. Fed pricing is down to 7.1 bps for this month, which maps to 28%. That could swing on...
Brown Brothers Harriman's Elias Haddad reports EUR/USD has slightly recovered after hitting fresh cyclical lows, with support at 1.1200 and 1.1111.
The Euro (EUR) trades lower against its major currency peers due to mounting fiscal worries in France. In the European trade, the major currency is down 0.35% at around 177.00 against the Japanese Yen (JPY).
Brown Brothers Harriman's (BBH) Elias Haddad warns France's budget crisis is deepening and complicating Eurozone fiscal dynamics. A minority government's deficit-reduction plan faces parliamentary hurdles, while the fiscal watchdog calls assumptions optimistic.
Nordea's Global Macro team of Tuuli Koivu, Jan von Gerich and Anders Svendsen note Euro-area inflation accelerated in September, driven mainly by energy and food.
Brown Brothers Harriman's Elias Haddad notes the recent US Dollar rally and bond selloff have stalled as FOMC officials temper expectations for an October rate hike.
MUFG's Derek Halpenny notes that rising rates volatility is driving a broader unwind of EM FX carry trades, with LatAm currencies under particular pressure. USD/MXN has surged and MXN long leveraged positions are being squeezed as implied volatility jumps.
The Euro (EUR) is practically flat against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, with the EUR/USD pair trading at the mid-1.1200s, still close to the 16-month low of 1.1210 hit on Thursday.
ING's Chris Turner argues that the French debt sell-off has broken the narrative of ever-higher short-term rates and raised doubts about further European Central Bank (ECB) tightening.
Eurozone's preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for September arrives at 3.8% Year-on-Year (YoY), higher than 3.6% estimates and August's final reading reading of 3.2%. On a monthly basis, inflationary pressures grew at a faster pace of 0.6% against the prior release of 0.4%.
Eurozone September preliminary CPI +3.8% vs +3.6% y/y expected Prior +3.2% Eurozone September preliminary core CPI +2.5% vs +2.5% y/y expected Prior +2.4% The breakdownThe headline estimate reaffirms that inflation continues to surge higher in the euro area at the end of the third quarter. That is largely driven by...
The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades higher against the US Dollar (USD) ahead of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for September, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.
The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to release September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data on Friday at 12:30 GMT.
Welcome to another edition of NFP Friday. Typically, the US jobs report starts off with one question for markets. And that is how many jobs did the economy add during the month? But this time around, I would argue the bar is a little higher than that. Markets are heading into Friday's non-farm payrolls report with...
SEC proposes letting investment advisers and funds self-custody Bitcoin and other crypto Dollar hits highest since May 2025 before payrolls; Asia FX slips despite strong data Katayama eyes 7 trillion yen of idle funds as Kiuchi says Japan needs no excessive easing UBS sees three catalysts to steady Treasuries, says...
Kiuchi's remarks reduce the risk of government pushback against further BOJ tightening, which is likely to be read as supportive of an earlier rate hike, coming on the same day Tokyo core inflation jumped to 2.7%. That could add to upward pressure on short-dated JGB yields and offer the yen some support. Katayama's...
US September ISM manufacturing 54.5 vs 55.0 expected Canada Sept S&P Global manufacturing PMI 51.5 vs 53.0 prior US weekly initial jobless claims 197K vs 200K expected Fed's Schmid: Rising long-term rates are starting to strain housing and commercial lending Fed's Jefferson: Weighing more data will allow the Fed to...
Just the data in this post. I'll have more to come on this separately, analysis and implications etc. Japan Tokyo CPI (Sep YY) Headline 2.7% expected 2.5%, prior 1.9% Core 2.7% expected 2.4%, prior 1.8% CPI Ex Food and Energy 3.0% expected 2.5%, prior 2.0% Japan Jobs/applications ratio (August data) 1.18 expected...
Hong Kong's stock market reopens on Friday, October 2, after closing on Thursday for National Day, but mainland China's markets remain shut for the rest of the week-long holiday and will not resume trading until Thursday, October 8. The Hong Kong exchange trades at its usual hours on Friday, 09:30 to 12:00 and 13:00...
The survey adds little to lift the New Zealand dollar, which has fallen to its lowest level in 11 months over the past 24 hours. Softer headline inflation expectations would ordinarily ease pressure on the RBNZ, but the late-month rise in expectations as oil climbed is the more relevant signal for traders, given fuel...
A Tokyo core print at or above 2.4% would reinforce expectations of a follow-up BOJ hike and could support the yen and push short-dated Japanese government bond yields higher, while a miss would give weight to the two board members who argued against the September increase. Because Tokyo leads the national figures by...
Gold price drifted higher, posting modest gains of over 0.40% on Thursday as US Treasury yields dove after Wednesday's inflation data, triggering a trimming of hawkish Fed bets for the October meeting. The XAU/USD trades at $4,175, up 0.4%.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson said Thursday that "inflation has resulted from a cascade of shocks" at the Darden School of Business at the University of Virginia in Charlottesville, Virginia.
The odds of an October Fed rate hike have roughly halved since Monday, and the Dollar Index has risen on every one of those days. It trades near 102.10, its highest since April 2025. The index is moving with Crude Oil and the Euro rather than with the odds for the Fed's next meeting.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) rally gathers pace on Thursday, climbing to a fresh year-to-date high as resilient US economic growth, a firm labour market and stubborn inflation support expectations of further monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed).
Minneapolis Federal Reserve (Fed) President Neel Kashkari said on Thursday he is unsure about an October rate hike but added that he is "open-minded about how fast the Fed should raise interest rates."
Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Philip Jefferson said on Thursday that the Fed "is fully committed to returning inflation to 2% target" and that future interest rate decisions "should be driven by data."
What's expected: Consensus estimate +910K (range +35K to +180K) August +162K July +21K Private consensus estimate +85K Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 4.1% vs 4.1% prior Participation rate 61.6% prior Prior underemployment U6 prior 7.7% Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.2% y/y vs +3.1% prior Avg hourly earnings m/m...
A Bank of Mexico (Banxico) survey of private economists revised down headline and core inflation forecasts, updated projections for the USD/MXN exchange rate, and revised projections for future interest rates set by the Mexican institution.
The Mexican Peso (MXN) collapses on Monday, extending its depreciation by over 1.50% as the Greenback strengthens sharply amid growing fears that the Middle East conflict will be prolonged, keeping energy prices under pressure.
The US Dollar (USD) has advanced further on Thursday, trading in levels last seen in early April 2025 on the back of the marked improvement in the sentiment surrounding the US Dollar, geopolitical uncertainty and renewed concerns over the French economy.
USD/JPY reverses its earlier gains on Thursday as traders hesitate to push the pair higher amid the risk of intervention by Japanese authorities. This allows the Japanese Yen (JPY) to regain some ground even as the US Dollar (USD) climbs to a fresh year-to-date high.
A report that the Pentagon is sending a third aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East has added a second leg to Thursday's rally in Crude Oil.
Headlines: Stocks feel the pinch as 10-year Treasury yields hit 5.33%, highest since 2002 US dollar hits three-month high as Treasury yields surge, EUR/USD cracks key support Oil shoots higher as the market starts to lose patience with the prolonged US-Iran stalemate Trump tells TIME the U.S. could resume or intensify...
Brown Brothers Harriman's Elias Haddad highlights a resilient US economy underpinning Dollar strength, with the DXY at new cyclical highs. Upward revisions to US Q2 GDP and strong Q3 estimates from the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model support the constructive outlook.
Gold (XAU/USD) treads water on Thursday as a stronger US Dollar (USD) and soaring US Treasury yields limit the upside. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,167, up 0.26% on the day, as the precious metal struggles to build on its early recovery.
Gold (XAU/USD) treads water on Thursday as a stronger US Dollar (USD) and elevated US Treasury yields limit the upside.
Here are comments delivered by United States (US) Donald Trump in an interview with Time Magazine.
According to the interview with TIME , Trump initially expected the conflict to last only four to six weeks, but seven months later there is still no clear end in sight. The conflict has disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, pushed energy prices higher and created significant economic and geopolitical...
The British Pound (GBP) heads lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, with the GBP/USD pair hitting three-month lows just below 1.3200 ahead of the US session opening.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades higher against its risky peers, but is down versus safe-haven peers during the European trading session on Thursday.
Brown Brothers Harriman's Elias Haddad highlights a deepening global bond market selloff driven by tighter expected policy paths and rising real term premia.
UOB Global Economics & Markets Research reports WTI crude settled at $90.42 per barrel and Brent at $103.53 per barrel on Wednesday, both extending strong year-to-date gains.
Societe Generale's Kit Juckes argues that recent US policy proposals around diesel exports and higher yields are reinforcing a stronger Dollar outlook. He notes that talking down the Dollar has failed since the Federal Reserve raised rates, and that capital inflows driven by higher US yields should keep supporting the...
UOB Global Economics & Markets Research highlights USD/JPY reversed intraday losses to close flat at 157.41. The Japanese Yen weakened after Ministry of Finance data confirmed no FX intervention between 27 August and 28 September, following July's record coordinated US-Japan operation.
The Euro (EUR) extends losses for the fourth consecutive day against the US Dollar (USD), reaching levels below 1.1300 for the first time since May 2025.
Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid describes severe stress in US Treasuries, with 10-year and 30-year yields pushing to post-2000s highs despite dovish PCE revisions.
According to UOB Global Economics & Markets Research, Gold spot eased to close at $4,157 per ounce after earlier trading as high as $4,219. Elevated real yields continue to limit bullion's upside, leaving Gold softer despite broader macro uncertainty and strong moves in other commodities. The report underscores how...
US-based employers announced 43,281 job cuts in September, down 18% from August and 20% from a year earlier. This marks the lowest total for the month since 2022, when 29,989 job cuts were recorded. Tech continues to lead layoffs, posting 10,799 cuts in September - up 77% from August. But through the first nine months...
Eurozone September final manufacturing PMI 52.9 vs 52.7 prelim Prior 52.7 The breakdownEurozone manufacturing ended the third quarter on a stronger footing, with the headline PMI rising to 52.9 in September from 52.7 in August - marking its highest level in more than four years. Of note, production and new orders both...
France September final manufacturing PMI 50.6 vs 50.3 prelim Prior 51.1 The breakdownThe final revision higher still marks a decline in French manufacturing activity in September compared to the month before. There was a further slowdown as as new orders continued to decrease, purchasing activity was reduced and price...
Spain September manufacturing PMI 51.0 vs 50.1 expected Prior 49.5 Spain's manufacturing economy returned to growth territory in September, although the sector's underlying performance remained subdued. The details show that production increased but overall new work continued to decline amid ongoing uncertainty and...
UK September Nationwide house prices -0.2% vs 0.0% m/m expected Prior +0.2% UK September Nationwide house prices +0.8% vs +1.3% y/y expected Prior +1.6% The breakdownIt's a softer report across the board. Annual house price growth halved to 0.8%, its weakest pace since December 2025, while prices also slipped 0.2% on...
For years, 2027 has loomed over the Taiwan story as the point by which China wants its military to be capable of taking the island by force. However, the latest US assessment suggests that doesn't necessarily mean an invasion is just around the corner. The latest report from Reuters today says US officials are...
Oil executives expect WTI near $88 by year-end, below current prices, Dallas Fed survey shows ICYMI: BOJ opinions and tankan both point to more rate hikes after September's move Australia's August trade surplus shrinks to A$495M as data center equipment imports surge Australia: RBA dice que la mayoría de los...
Softer inflation gave markets some breathing room early Wednesday. But by the end of the session, Treasury yields were higher, the dollar had strengthened against most major currencies, and the stock market's gains were concentrated in the Nasdaq indices. The economic picture was mixed. August PCE inflation came in...
Hong Kong will trade on October 2, 5, 6 and 7 without Stock Connect flows in either direction, which may leave China-focused and dual-listed shares on thinner, more offshore-driven liquidity. With the onshore yuan market shut, offshore yuan carries price discovery with less depth, and mainland commodity and financial...
The Fed Governor Lisa Cook crossed the wires on Wednesday and said she is committed to returning inflation to the Fed's 2% goal while preserving the strength of the labour market.
In a TruthSocial post, Donald Trump is calling for Jerome Powell to resign from the Fed Board over alleged mismanagement and cost overruns in the Federal Reserve headquarters renovation. He says he has asked Attorney General Todd Blanche to review an inspector general's report and determine what action to take. Trump...
The Mexican Peso (MXN) prolongs its agony, extending losses by over 0.11% against the Greenback for the third straight day on Wednesday, while USD/MXN continues to trade above the psychological level of 18.00 as the carry trade loses its appeal.
The US Dollar (USD) has traded with marginal gains, coming under pressure following daily tops near 101.50 as investors evaluated softer-than-expected PCE data in August and trimmed some bets on extra tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the following months.
Comments from US President Trump on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz: US has almost total control of the Strait of Hormuz. You will see things happening very soon (regarding Iran); there has been historic flows of oil out of Hormuz in the last three days. Analysis: Trump's message is that the US has control of the...
EUR/USD remains on the defensive on Wednesday as a broadly stronger US Dollar (USD) weighs on the pair, leaving the Euro on track for a loss of more than 2% in September. At the time of writing, EUR/USD trades around 1.1337, close to Tuesday's low of 1.1312, its weakest level since May 2025.
Gold prices (XAU/USD) retreated on Wednesday, down 0.6%, after US inflation data came in above the Federal Reserve's (Fed) 2% goal but below estimates, prompting investors to price in a less hawkish central bank than expected. The XAU/USD trades at $4,155 at the time of writing.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil rebounds on Wednesday and remains on track for a monthly gain of around 5.5%. The lack of progress in US-Iran negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz keeps geopolitical risks elevated, even as Middle East supply conditions improve.
European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said that France's debt situation is "serious at 120% of GDP and without a path to lowering it."
European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Isabel Schnabel said Wednesday that high costs are passed through to consumers more quickly when the economy is resilient.
AUD/USD declines 0.41% on Wednesday and trades around 0.6960 at the time of writing, having fully erased its initial rebound following the release of softer-than-expected United States (US) inflation data.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades under pressure on Wednesday even as traders reduce bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates again in October following softer-than-expected US PCE inflation data.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) posts solid gains versus the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, edging up 0.42% as the latest US inflation figures were below estimates, reaffirming New York Federal Reserve (Fed) President John Williams' comments that the Fed is in no rush to tighten monetary policy.
Headlines: European stocks slip back as oil and bond yields edge higher from session lows Gold extends the recovery amid renewed US-Iran deal hopes and dovish Fed's Williams comments French inflation jumps in September as HICP rises to 3.4% German state CPI readings point to inflation climbing back above 3% in...
Gold (XAU/USD) trades little changed on Wednesday, consolidating the previous day's gains after recovering from a seven-week low touched on Monday.
Gold (XAU/USD) reverses its earlier gains on Wednesday after briefly climbing above $4,200 in reaction to softer-than-expected US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data. The initial move fades as the US Dollar (USD) trims its losses and US Treasury yields resume their advance.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) holds onto its early recovery move at around 0.6970 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Wednesday. Still, the Aussie pair is down 0.19% to near 0.6970.
The US Dollar (USD) is showing a moderately softer tone on Wednesday, weighed down by the recent pullback in US Treasury yields and some dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams.
Brown Brothers Harriman's Elias Haddad notes the Dollar has eased from recent highs as lower Oil prices and comments from New York Fed President John Williams temper rate expectations. However, upcoming US August PCE and September ADP data are expected to show sticky inflation, stronger consumer spending and resilient...
Kit Juckes at Societe Generale highlights Japanese Yen outperformance in G10 as markets anticipate further USD/JPY intervention. He argues that strong intervention expectations are driving reluctance to be short Yen, with EUR/JPY likely sold on rallies. However, he cautions that another spike in Oil prices could...
MUFG's Lee Hardman highlights that European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde has pushed back against expectations for another back-to-back ECB rate hike, stressing higher long-term yields and the need for a measured response.
Societe Generale's Kit Juckes notes a softer Dollar as Oil and bond yields edge lower and equities firm, with month-end flows likely in play.
Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid and team highlight a sharp intraday reversal in Brent Oil, with front-month prices dropping even as longer-dated contracts grind higher.
DBS Group Research economist Eugene Leow assesses USD Rates ahead of the October FOMC meeting, noting investors see a near-even chance of a back-to-back Fed hike.
Societe Generale's FX team reports USD/JPY trading between 156.38 and 157.52 overnight, with the pair mildly offered on dovish New York Federal Reserve President John Williams comments and fiscal half‑end repatriation flows.
The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Research Institute will release September's monthly report on private-sector employment creation on Wednesday.
The United States (US) Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will publish the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for August on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT.
Well, the latest German state CPI readings are starting to paint a fairly clear picture ahead of the national report later today. The state readings released around the same time: Bavaria September CPI +3.2% vs +2.9% y/y prior Saxony September CPI +3.3% vs +2.9% y/y prior North Rhine Westphalia September CPI +3.3% vs...
Germany September unemployment change 12k vs 1k expected Prior 4k Germany September unemployment rate 6.4% vs 6.4% expected Prior 6.4% The breakdownGerman unemployment rose significantly more than expected in September as the jobless figure grew by 12,000 to 3.01 million in seasonally adjusted terms. Despite that, the...
France September preliminary CPI +3.0% vs +2.8% y/y expected Prior +2.4% France September preliminary HICP +3.4% vs +3.1% y/y expected Prior +2.6% The breakdownThe pickup in French inflation was fairly broad, although energy remains the standout driver. Energy prices accelerated to +21.2% y/y from +16.7% in August,...
Germany August retail sales +1.3% vs +1.5% m/m expected Prior -3.4% The breakdownThe rebound here is notable, even if it misses on forecasts by a little. It at least substantiates that the drop in July ties much to a heavy decline in petrol station sales, following the end of the fuel discount that was in effect...
Germany August import prices +1.0% vs +0.7% m/m expected Prior +0.2% Germany August import prices +8.3% vs +8.0% y/y expected Prior +6.8% The breakdownImport prices rose another 1.0% on the month in August, pushing the annual rate up sharply to 8.3% from 6.8%. This marks the strongest annual increase since December...
UK Q2 final GDP +0.5% vs +0.4% q/q prelim Prior (Q1) +0.6% UK Q2 final GDP +1.4% vs +1.2% y/y prelim Prior (Q1) +0.9% The breakdownIt is a mild revision higher to the initial estimate, reaffirming a more resilient UK economic picture in the second quarter. The services sector in particular held up relatively well,...
German inflation will be one of the main economic data points to watch out for in European trading today, with the September reading expected to show a further pick up in price pressures. Here's what markets are looking for: CPI +3.1% y/y expected; Prior +2.9% HICP +3.2% y/y expected; Prior +2.9% The August report...
Goldman: Persian Gulf oil exports back at 2025 average after doubling in September USD/JPY slips to around 156.4 as half-year-end flows and Fed comments weigh China official manufacturing PMI returns to growth at 50.1, non-manufacturing 50.2 RatingDog China manufacturing PMI 52.1 tops forecast, services 51.6 also...
A return to growth in the official manufacturing survey, alongside a jump in the non-manufacturing index, gives China-sensitive assets a supportive final data point before the holiday. Factory strength matters for industrial commodities, including oil, and RatingDog's finding that manufacturers' input costs are being...
Stronger readings from both surveys, ahead of a week-long Chinese holiday, give China-sensitive assets a supportive last data point before mainland markets close. The rise in manufacturers' input costs, driven by metals and oil, is the detail most relevant to commodity markets, since it suggests firms are absorbing...
The Australian dollar is the most direct read-through. A print at or above forecast would strengthen the case for further tightening and could support the currency and short-dated yields. A softer result, particularly in trimmed mean, would invite doubts about how far the central bank needs to go. Because the RBA has...
A move in the official manufacturing PMI back above 50 would be read as a modest positive for China-sensitive assets, including the Australian dollar, the yuan and industrial metals. For oil, the question is whether the data changes the view on Chinese fuel demand, and a soft non-manufacturing print would keep demand...
It's a packed data agenda during the Asian timezone today with Chinese data releases ahead of the week long holiday that begins tomorrow along with inflation data from Australia (following the RBA rate hike yesterday ) and much more. I'll come back with previews of the Chinese and Australian data separately. This...
JOLTS job openings 7.079M vs 7.225M estimate Sept US consumer confidence 81.9 vs 89.2 expected US July CaseShiller 20-city house price index +2.5% vs 2.2% expected Canada July GDP 0.0% vs 0.0% expected Deutsche Bank sees a copper crunch coming - and says $10/lb may be needed to fix it US offers up to 40 million...
Gold (XAU/USD) price registers solid gains of over 1.30% on Tuesday despite hawkish rhetoric from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, after hitting a multi-week low near $4,110 on Monday. The XAU/USD pair trades at $4,170 after bouncing off daily lows of $4,113.
Tuesday's two Canadian catalysts, a flat July for the economy and a later start to Bank of Canada (BoC) bond buying, didn't move USD/CAD. The pair went above 1.4200 for the first time since early July and fell back twice.
New York Federal Reserve (Fed) President John Williams spoke at the University of Buffalo and said that "price stability is foundational for the economy," adding that "determining how restrictive monetary policy is is hard."
The US Dollar Index (DXY) extends gains on Tuesday, approaching its year-to-date high as expectations of further Federal Reserve (Fed) interest-rate hikes drive strong demand for the Greenback.
The New York Fed Governor John Williams said that he "sees no need for urgency after September rate hike," a dovish statement that pushed the US Dollar Index (DXY) modestly lower, though it remains positive in the day.
Chicago Federal Reserve (Fed) President Austan Goolsbee, a voter in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in 2027, said Tuesday that "the fact that we have been 5 ½ years above inflation target is playing with fire," adding that "massive deficits" can overheat the economy.
The US Dollar (USD) has accelerated its recovery, adding to the positive start to the week and clinching new multi-week tops, always helped by the persistent advance in US Treasury yields and unabated geopolitical concerns.
St. Louis Federal Reserve (Fed) President Alberto Musalem crossed the wires on Tuesday, saying that central bankers needn't make promises but should tell the public how and why the central bank makes policy decisions.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Michael Barr said Tuesday that he sees "elevated wage rates in the skilled trades," and added that the resilience of the US economy is "striking."
Silver (XAG/USD) retreats on Tuesday and trades around $60.75 at the time of writing, down 0.38% on the day.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Michael Barr said on Tuesday that "there is a need to recalibrate policy" and that the base case is that "further policy adjustments" are likely needed.
Alexander DeMarco, the Governor of the Central Bank of Malta and member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB), crossed the wires on Tuesday, saying that "stronger core inflation" could be a reason for the central bank to act, and that he supports a rate hike in October.
Oil prices dipped briefly after The Atlantic reported that President Trump supports a plan to exchange the release of political prisoners for sanctions relief . The initiative, led by Trump's envoy John Coale, is still in its early stages, and Trump had reportedly expressed support for the concept several months ago....
Headlines: Zcash remains supported by idiosyncratic catalysts, but macro headwinds limit further gains. What's next? Euro area economic sentiment slips in September as inflation expectations rise Silver remains at risk of further downside as US-Iran talks take centre stage AUD/USD risks bigger breakdown below 0.7000...
The Australian Dollar (AUD) came under immediate downside pressure following the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) decision to raise its official cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% - marking its fourth interest rate increase in 2026.
The British Pound (GBP) claws back some of its early losses, but is still 0.14% down at around 1.3235 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Tuesday.
NZD/USD declines to around 0.5650 at the time of writing on Tuesday, down 0.25% on the day, and remains close to its lowest level since late June.
Gold (XAU/USD) steadies on Tuesday after suffering a sharp sell-off at the start of the week. The move appears to be a corrective bounce, as the broader narrative remains tied to expectations of further Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes.
The Euro (EUR) keeps heading lower on Tuesday as a mix of high US Treasury yields, strong US macroeconomic data, and hopes of further Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes underpins speculative support for the US Dollar.
Brown Brothers Harriman's Elias Haddad notes the Dollar is edging higher against major currencies, with the DXY index approaching its June 24 high near 101.80.
Societe Generale's Latam strategy notes the Mexican Peso (MXN) is heading for its worst month since August 2024, with losses nearing 5% versus the Dollar as higher US yields weigh on risk sentiment.
Standard Chartered Global Research discusses the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to raise the cash rate to 4.60% in a unanimous move, noting a dovish tone from Governor Bullock.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) underperforms its major currency peers during the European trading session on Tuesday. The antipodean is down almost 0.4% below 0.7000 against the US Dollar (USD).
TD Securities' Macro Research maintains a negative stance on the Australian Dollar relative to the New Zealand Dollar following the Reserve Bank of Australia's September decision. With the cash rate at 4.60% and no further hikes expected this year, they see AUD underperformance persisting.
USD/JPY trades around 157.40 on Tuesday at the time of writing, virtually unchanged on the day.
The latest euro area sentiment readings are out: Economic sentiment 97.9 vs 99.0 expected; Prior 98.4 Industrial sentiment -3.8 vs -4.7 expected; Prior -5.0 (R) Services sentiment 6.1 vs 6.5 expected; Prior 5.6 (R) Consumer inflation expectations 35.2; Prior 33.0 Selling price expectations 20.3; Prior 16.9 (R) The...
Spain September preliminary CPI +4.9% vs +4.6% y/y expected Prior +4.3% Spain September preliminary HICP +5.0% vs +4.9% y/y expected Prior +4.6% The breakdownThe numbers are running hotter than expected with headline annual inflation climbing to 4.9%, its highest since February 2023. Meanwhile, core annual inflation...
The Indian Rupee (INR) slides to a fresh two-month low against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, with the USD/INR pair jumping to near 96.13. The pair strengthens as the Indian currency underperforms due to fears of persistent energy supply disruption.
Singapore to allocate US$1.1 billion to five asset managers to boost its equities market Japan's Katayama says undervalued yen is problematic, agrees with Bessent on cooperation Australian household spending flat in August, missing forecasts ahead of RBA decision PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.7411 (vs. estimate...
The yen is the main read-through. Katayama's line that an undervalued yen is problematic, paired with her promise of close US Treasury contact, adds to verbal pressure on USD/JPY (around 157 in recent sessions) after August's joint intervention. Her denial that the government is reflationary and her stress on...
The BRC gauge is a narrow, backward-looking snapshot, so the market is likely to look past the small dip in shop prices and focus on the official inflation path, which is forecast to climb above 4% next year. Energy is the swing factor: oil and gas prices tied to the Iran conflict feed directly into retailers' costs...
A software bug at Boeing (BA) cost the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) more points than a record $150 billion buyback at Nvidia (NVDA) put back. The index closed just under 51,500 on Monday, handing back about two-thirds of Friday's rally.
A relatively quiet calendar but we do have an expected Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike. I'll get a preview posted but for how: RBA preview: A 25 bps rate hike is priced in, but what comes after that? This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Gold (XAU/USD) begins the week on the back foot, tanking over 3.4% on Monday as US Treasury yields soar and Oil prices remain elevated despite falling from daily highs amid mixed news headlines about a potential US-Iran deal. The XAU/USD trades at $4,139 after peaking at $4,280.
Trump: We will win the Iran war very soon and gas prices will come tumbling down Trump prepared to ease sanctions and release frozen funds for nuclear progress - report Iran foreign minister's stay in NY has not been extended September Dallas Fed manufacturing business index 9.8 vs 11.6 prior ECB's Lagarde: We view a...
Had a very respectful meeting with China's Xi It's hard to take anything Trump says about Iran seriously. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
USD/JPY trades little changed around 157.25 on Monday as the US Dollar (USD) also holds steady near recent highs, with traders weighing Middle East developments and the risk of Japanese intervention.
The US Dollar (USD) has stated the week with slight gains, resuming its recent uptrend and leaving behind Friday's hiccup.
US Treasury yields climb on Monday as energy prices remain high, amid US President Donald Trump's rejection of a peace agreement with Tehran.
Trump will make an announcement in the Oval Office today. The scheduled time is 2 pm ET but White House events never happen on time. The topic is a $15 billion steel mill in Iowa but reporters will be there and will surely ask him about Iran. In all likelihood he will have the usual rhetoric but it's something to keep...
President Donald Trump's rejection of Iran's seven-day plan for the Strait of Hormuz lifted Crude Oil to its best level since Thursday, and the whole rise was gone after a Saudi pipeline restart and a US offer of sanctions relief.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Lisa Cook said in a speech in Oakland, California, that the number and magnitude of future adjustments to the Fed funds rate will depend on inflation and labor market data.
Al Jazeera reported on Monday that US President Donald Trump is prepared to ease sanctions on Iran and to unfreeze its assets in exchange for progress on nuclear talks.
Rabobank's RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets FX Strategy team notes that USD net long speculative positions were broadly unchanged, with both longs and shorts rising modestly. The Federal Reserve raised its overnight policy rate by 25bp on September 16, matching expectations.
Perhaps diplomacy isn't dead. Al Jazeera reports that diplomacy is continuing, citing a US official, and that Trump is prepared to ease sanctions and release frozen funds for progress on the nuclear issue. There isn't much detail on the report but it's starting to get a wider viewing and it's moving markets. The...
The Pound Sterling (GBP) registers modest gains of 0.18% on Monday even as US Treasury yields soar, with the US 10-year T-note rising over 10 basis points, underpinning the Greenback. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD pair trades at 1.3252.
Silver (XAG/USD) falls around 5% on Monday, slipping to its lowest level since early August.
Irib reports -- and it was confirmed by an Iranian spokesman -- that Aragchi's New York stay has not been extended. he met with mediators today but I imagine they relayed that the US hadn't accepted their proposal and hadn't offered anything constructive back. Oil shot higher on the report. This article was written by...
Diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran could resume as early as Monday or Tuesday, with mediators expected to hold separate discussions with both sides, according to an official briefed on the negotiations. Iranian Foreign MinisterAraghchi and Qatari mediators are expected to remain in the US as the talks take...
Headlines: Gold price breaks below $4,200 as surging Treasury yields deepen the technical damage Gold collapses as Trump rejects Iran's proposal to reopen Strait of Hormuz and signals new bombings Japanese yen jumps as top currency diplomat Mimura reiterates strong currency alliance with the US US jobs report could...
United Kingdom (UK) Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey said during the European trade on Monday that the administration will maintain control of Britain's finances while speaking about the upcoming fiscal budget this year.
The British Pound (GBP) trades higher against its major currency peers, except the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Monday. In the European trade, the British currency is up 0.13% to near 1.3256 against the US Dollar (USD).
Lee Hardman at MUFG highlights that Oil has been one of the biggest movers, with prices rising back towards recent highs around USD110/barrel.
The Euro (EUR) is dropping sharply against the British Pound (GBP) on Monday, with EUR/GBP bears testing support at the 0.8570 area, reversing last week's gains in a day following rejection at the 0.8610 resistance area.
The Deutsche Bank Early Morning Reid details a sharp rise in US Treasury yields, with the 10-year reaching its highest level since 2007 and the 30-year touching levels last seen in 2004. The move is driven by strong data and increased odds of a Federal Reserve hike in October.
Gold (XAU/USD) starts the week under heavy selling pressure, sliding nearly 3% as Oil-driven inflation concerns reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could raise interest rates further. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,156, its lowest level since August 5.
Gold (XAU/USD) remains under strong selling pressure on Monday, down over 3.5% as elevated Oil prices reinforce expectations of further Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,121, its lowest level since August 5.
Silver (XAG/USD) falls sharply on Monday, losing 4.53% on the day to trade around $61.40 at the time of writing. The precious metal faces heavy selling pressure as elevated United States (US) Treasury yields and growing expectations of further interest rate hikes weigh on non-yielding assets.
Elias Haddad at Brown Brothers Harriman argues the Dollar can keep benefiting from widening US-G6 rate differentials and higher US real yields.
Oil appreciates firmly on Monday, following US President Donald Trump's refusal of Tehran's latest proposal to cease hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil barrel is trading at $94.60 at the time of writing, up nearly 3.5% on the day so far.
Bank of England (BoE) Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden said on Monday that risks to the inflation outlook have become increasingly tilted to the upside, according to Reuters.
BBH's Elias Haddad highlights that the Dollar is broadly firmer, but intervention warnings from Japanese officials are supporting the Japanese Yen.
Japan is maintaining a close watch on the yen, with its top currency diplomat, Mimura, reiterating that authorities remain concerned about the currency's underlying moves and are prepared to respond if necessary . Mimura said that Japan, the finance minister and the US have sent a clear message regarding the yen,...
It's only Monday but it feels like markets already have plenty to digest this week. Geopolitical tensions remain up in the air. Higher oil prices. Surging bond yields. Stocks and gold under threat again. It's all to play for with month-end and quarter-end volatility also set to kick into gear. But in terms of macro...
The Indian Rupee (INR) starts the week on a negative note against the US Dollar (USD) due to significant gains in oil prices over the weekend. As of writing, the USD/INR pair is up 0.18% to near 95.99.
Nikkei gives up early gains as Nasdaq futures slip before Micron earnings Treasury's $202 billion settlement is routine, not a Bitcoin trigger Goldman: US diesel export ban would cut US prices about 4%, lift European cost (d'uh) China industrial profits rise 4.2% in August, weakest monthly gain this year China and
The slowdown in August puts the focus back on how much support Beijing will offer to protect corporate earnings, and economists quoted in the reports expect it to lean harder on stimulus. Any move would matter for Chinese and broader Asian equities, particularly industrial and materials names exposed to weak domestic...
An extended truce lowers the risk of a tariff flare-up in the near term, which tends to support risk sentiment across Asian equities and China-linked currencies. The agriculture working group and the comments on U.S. coal point to possible demand for American farm and energy exports, though no volumes or purchase...
Societe Generale notes the Korean Won has been one of Asia's standout performers, with USD/KRW slipping from around 1,390 to 1,360 as local exporters sold Dollars ahead of the Chuseok holiday.
Trump will meet with Xi again in November Xi: US-China relationship will be one of strategic stability based on respect, fairness and reciprocity September final UMich consumer sentiment 48.1 vs 47.6 expected USTR's Greer: We have reached agreements with China on a sub-set of goods we can trade US August durable goods...
UOB's Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann describe USD/CNH as consolidating after a move to 6.7200, with momentum slowing in the very near term.
US Treasury yields turned mixed on Friday as the long-end of the curve, the 20s and 30s, posted gains while the short-end and the belly of the yield curve retreated to multi-year high levels. The US 10-year Treasury yield holds firm at 5.20% after peaking at a 19-year high of 5.228%.
US Treasury yields turned mixed on Friday as the long-end of the curve, the 20s and 30s, posted gains while the short-end and the belly of the yield curve retreated from multi-year high levels. The US 10-year Treasury yield holds firm at 5.20% after peaking at a 19-year high of 5.228%.
ING's Asia-Pacific research notes that South Korea's upcoming data should show stronger industrial production and a widening trade surplus, even as export and import growth moderates. Technology and semiconductor exports are expected to underpin the surplus.
Societe Generale describes a limited impact from President Xi's US visit, with no new tariff cuts or AI dialogue mechanism agreed as the trade truce was only extended to January.
Cleveland Federal Reserve (Fed) President Beth Hammack said on Friday the two sides of the Fed's dual mandate are not in conflict. She said that "high inflation complicates economic planning," and that she doesn't see current policy as restraining the economy.
UOB's Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note USD/SGD held steady around 1.2800 after Wednesday's surge, with the Singapore Dollar (SGD) supported by expectations of further MAS tightening.
European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Boris Vujcic said on Friday that the ECB started a tightening cycle and sees a "risk of higher for longer energy prices." He added that diesel prices will stay high for a long time, feeding into inflation.
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong report that Asian FX traded broadly softer as higher Oil prices and rising US Treasury yields hurt risk sentiment, with Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) underperforming and Philippine Peso (PHP), Indian Rupee (INR) and Thai Baht (THB) also weaker.
The Cleveland Federal Reserve (Fed) President Beth Hammack said on Friday that "the biggest risk with inflation is the formation of an inflationary mindset", in a panel discussion hosted by the Cleveland Fed, with Vujcic, the Vice President of the European Central Bank (ECB), and Bank of Mexico's (B
Silver (XAG/USD) holds firm on Friday, supported by a modest pullback in the US Dollar (USD) after its strong weekly rally. At the time of writing, Silver trades around $64.30 but remains on track for a weekly loss.
Gold (XAU/USD) price holds firm on Friday after two days of losses, as US bond yields remain high and inflationary concerns mount, increasing the likelihood of further tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and other major central banks.
Trump says he will meet with Xi again in November and then again at the G20 in DDecember in Miami. Trump said the meeting was one of friendship, strength and success for both the USA and China. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
USD/CHF holds firm on Friday even as the US Dollar (USD) pulls back slightly after a strong weekly rally. The move has done little to lift the Swiss franc (CHF), with the pair hovering around 0.8285, near levels last seen in May 2025. USD/CHF is on track for a fourth consecutive weekly gain.
UOB's Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/CHF has surged over the past two days, with strong momentum pointing to further Dollar strength. However, they stress that deeply overbought conditions are likely to cap upside to the 0.8305 - 0.8330 area.
Al Jazeera's bureau chief in Tehran, Nourddine Dgheir, citing sources in the city, says the atmosphere around talks is increasingly positive. He writes that Iran-U.S. negotiations, which are ongoing in New York, have moved beyond initial diplomatic contacts into a more detailed technical phase, with technical experts...
Xi: Agreed with Trump to add new substance to US-China relationship Trump on China: We've made tremendous strides for both countries in meetings We will be speaking a lot It's not like we're breaking any new ground here but this is a nice departure from the constant China fighting that has characterized much of...
Speaking on CNBC, Greer said the US will release on Monday the details of negotiations between China and the US. I wouldn't expect to be overwhelmed but at least it's all on the rails. Meanwhile Trump is tweeting. It seems we're at the stage of his Presidency, where he's all about re-naming things. Very productive...
Headlines: USD/JPY falls below 158.00 as Takaichi says Trump flagged weak yen pressure Crude oil falls on reports of potential phased US-Iran deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz Trump-Xi summit extends the trade truce but leaves the biggest market questions unresolved How have interest rate expectations...
Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey said on Friday that the pass-through from higher energy prices remains "quite subdued" so far, while stressing that it is still early days.
Commerzbank's India section notes September flash PMIs pointing to stronger end-Q3 activity, with both manufacturing and services indices well above 50. Domestic demand is robust, but elevated input and output prices, especially in manufacturing, keep upside inflation risks high.
Gold (XAU/USD) is trimming some losses on Friday, trading just below the $4,300 level after bouncing from support in the $4,230 area on Thursday.
Deutsche Bank strategists highlight a sharp rise in Brent Oil as geopolitical tensions and Iranian rhetoric fuel concerns about an extended conflict. Brent briefly spiked above $108 before retracing on reports of potential US - Iran negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) kept rates at 0% and toned down its FX intervention language, signalling more tolerance for a firmer Swiss Franc but not a hawkish shift.
UOB's Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight that EUR/USD extended its recent slide to 1.1358, leaving conditions deeply oversold.
The British Pound (GBP) recovers some of its early losses against the Japanese Yen (JPY) during the European trading session on Friday, but is still down around 0.17% to near 209.45.
ING strategist Frantisek Taborsky reports that volatility in core rates and high Oil and gas prices are driving elevated tightening expectations across CEE, with roughly 125bp priced for Poland and the Czech Republic.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) ticks up against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday but remains on track to a 1.3% weekly decline, to complete a three-week losing streak.
Commerzbank's Tatha Ghose notes the National Bank of Hungary paused cuts at 5.50% but lowered its medium‑term inflation target to 2.5% while simultaneously lifting 2027 inflation forecasts.
Spain Q2 final GDP +0.7% vs +0.7% q/q expected Prior +0.6% The breakdownThe final estimate confirms that the Spanish economy grew by 0.7% in the second quarter, accelerating slightly from 0.6% growth in Q1. Domestic demand remains the main engine of the economy, contributing 1.1% to quarterly GDP growth. By aggregate...
Germany October GfK consumer climate -30.6 vs -27.4 expected Prior -26.6; revised to -26.8 The breakdownThat is a notable miss on estimates as German consumer sentiment weakens more sharply than expected heading into October. The main culprit is rising energy prices and that is weighing on purchasing power of...
The Indian Rupee (INR) gains a temporary ground against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday after remaining under pressure in the past few days. The USD/INR pair struggles to extend gains above 95.96 on the likely Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) intervention.
And so the Trump-Xi summit this week delivered what markets probably needed most. That being no fresh escalation between the two largest economies in the world. But beyond that, there wasn't much of any breakthrough either. The clearest takeaway is the extension of the existing US-China trade truce by another two...
The selloff in the bond market isn't showing much sign of letting up. 10-year Treasury yields have pushed up to 5.18%, extending the breakout above 5% and putting another important technical area firmly into view. The next major hurdle on the chart sits around the 5.25% to 5.30% region, roughly where yields topped out...
Nikkei gains 1.2% as chip stocks and dividend buying lift Tokyo, SoftBank slips on Oracle Goldman stays bullish on AI as cloud giants' spending heads towards $1.2 trillion Katayama says Trump raised weak yen concerns with Takaichi, USD/JPY eases below 158.50 Recession signal flashes on Oxford Economics' US indicator,...
A recession signal against a backdrop of strong data makes it a useful counterpoint for bond markets. It gives Treasury bulls an argument just as 10-year yields sit above 5.2% and Fed hike odds are rising. Markets are unlikely to react much for now, because Oxford itself plays down the signal and current data points...
AUD is the most exposed of the major currencies. It usually trades partly as a proxy for China, and with onshore markets shut it loses that anchor and has to lean more on oil, Treasury yields and the RBA. With Dalian iron ore futures closed, iron ore price discovery shifts to the Singapore contract, which is thinner....
A two-month extension avoids a November tariff cliff, but it gives markets no lasting relief, and the January 10 deadline now becomes the next risk event for trade-sensitive assets. The Australian dollar , as a liquid proxy for China's growth, is likely to take its lead from progress at the Shenzhen and Miami summits...
US stocks finish mixed as Meta's Muse rally helps mask the losers. Iran's Pezeshkian wants a deal with the US before the midterm elections, NBC reports Meta shares approach all-time highs as the Muse rally begins yet another leg higher US treasury sells $44 billion of 7 year notes at a high yield of 5.085% US/Iran...
Brown Brothers Harriman's (BBH) Elias Haddad highlights that the Norwegian Krone (NOK) outperformed after Norges Bank delivered a hawkish 25 basis point hike to 4.50%.
The Mexican Peso extended its losses against the US Dollar on Thursday after the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) held the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.50%, disregarding the interest rate differential as a primary factor in setting monetary policy.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian spoke briefly with NBC News and other news organizations on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly: "We wish Americans to return to the MOU before the midterms." "We don't want it to get to the midterm elections." Analysis: The timing is the message. Pezeshkian is...
The Dollar Index has won back about 90% of what it lost between the late-July top and the August low. It reached 101.40 on Thursday, its highest since late July, and is heading for a fourth straight gain.
On Thursday, the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) held interest rates unchanged at 6.50% for the third time, as expected, in a unanimous decision.
Commerzbank's Dr. Henry Hao and Moses Lim note that Singapore's August headline and core inflation both climbed to the upper half of the Monetary Authority of Singapore's 2026 forecast range, with services, retail goods, food and utilities all contributing.
The US Dollar (USD) has traded with gains for the fourth consecutive day on Thursday, managing to revisit levels last seen in late July.
USD/JPY extends its advance for a fifth consecutive day on Thursday as broad US Dollar (USD) strength and persistent pressure on the Japanese Yen (JPY) keep the pair firmly supported.
Brown Brothers Harriman notes the Swiss Franc underperformed as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) kept its policy rate at zero for a fifth straight meeting and resisted market expectations for future hikes.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Euro (EUR) remains soft as front-end spreads widen and European Union (EU) concerns persist over a possible US diesel export ban, despite official denials.
WI level at the time of the auction: 5.078% High yield: 5.085% Tail: 0.7 basis points vs the average of 0.2 basis points Bid to cover: 2.42X vs the average of 2.49X Directs: 30.27% vs the average of 23.3% Indirects: 57.2% vs the average of 64.6% Dealers: 12.53% vs the average of 12.1% Auction grade: C− The auction was...
US and Iranian negotiators are discussing a phased agreement to end the conflict, Reuters reported on Thursday.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) drops for the fourth straight trading day versus the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, down 0.21%, as Federal Reserve (Fed) officials remain hawkish and US jobs data shows labor market strength.
The 30-year Treasury yield rose to its highest since 2004 on Thursday while the two-year yield barely moved, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is falling with the long one. The index dropped as far as 51,100, its lowest since June, and is on track for a third losing session in a row.
Reuters, citing sources, reports on discussions over a phased arrangement between Washington and Tehran: Gulf states reject Iranian control of the strait. Iran signals flexibility on fees, not on the Strait of Hormuz. Neither side wants to surrender leverage driving diplomacy. A senior Iranian official said the most...
President Donald Trump is hosting Chinese President Xi Jinping at the White House during Xi's three-day U.S. state visit. The leaders are expected to discuss trade, technology, Taiwan and the war with Iran. No outcome from today's talks should be assumed yet. Trade starts from a better position than it did a day ago....
Headlines: Brent crude above $100 and 10-year Treasury yields above 5% give markets a double test SNB leaves policy rate unchanged at 0% in September meeting, as widely expected USD/JPY races to three-week high above 158 as buyers eye a technical break higher Gold prices slide toward last week's lows as 10-year...
Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Swati Dhingra struck a dovish tone on Thursday, highlighting signs of easing price pressures and weakness in the United Kingdom (UK) labour market, according to Reuters.
Societe Generale analysts, including Kenneth Broux, note that USD/MXN has broken above a multi-month descending trend line and reclaimed its 200-day moving average for the first time since April 2025.
The People's Bank of China (PBoC) said on Thursday that it will step up counter-cyclical adjustments and continue to implement an "appropriately loose" monetary policy, according to Reuters.
Francesco Pesole at ING argues EUR/USD's break below 1.140 has pushed the pair into stretched undervaluation versus their short-term fair value model, as rate differentials moved in favour of the Euro.
MUFG's Derek Halpenny notes the US Dollar (USD) is strengthening as US fixed income sells off, driving global bond weakness and higher yields across the curve. A poor 5-year UST auction and strong US and global PMIs are reinforcing hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) rhetoric.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is gaining ground for the fourth consecutive day and trading around 101.20 during European hours on Thursday.
Rabobank's Mauricio Une and Renan Alves note that the Federal Reserve (Fed) raised rates by 25 bps and signaled a more restrictive stance, while Copom cut the Selic rate to 13.75%. The Brazilian Real (BRL) weakened slightly to BRL 5.1462 per USD but still outperformed most emerging peers.
The Euro (EUR) holds gains against the British Pound (GBP) on Thursday, as the EUR/GBP flirts with the 0.8600 area, just below three-month highs, at 0.8607, following a 0.3% appreciation so far this week.
The Euro (EUR) faces slight selling pressure against the US Dollar (USD), retreating from intraday high of around 1.1400 to near 1.1380 as the Greenback rises, following hawkish remarks from New York Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank John Willams, who is a permanent voting member.
Germany September Ifo business climate index 89.9 vs 89.1 expected Prior 88.8 Germany September Ifo business expectations 90.4 vs 89.3 expected Prior 89.1; revised to 89.0 Germany September Ifo current assessment index 89.5 vs 89.0 expected Prior 88.5 Things are looking on the up in Germany as the latest business...
The latest business and household confidence data released today: France September consumer confidence 86 vs 85 expected Prior 86 France September business confidence 96 vs 97 expected Prior 98 French consumer sentiment is seen holding steady in September, although still keeping well below the long-term average...
The Indian Rupee (INR) extends its losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday.
This week has basically revolved around two questions for broader markets. The first being can oil prices keep below $100? And the second being can 10-year Treasury yields stay below the 5% mark? Today, we are starting to get an answer to both. And by the looks of it, neither is going in the direction that markets...
From 500 jets to salvage mode: Boeing's China hopes shrink ahead of summit Google readies Gemini 4 launch as it seeks to regain ground in the AI model race AUD little changed: Australia jobless rate hits 4.6%, highest since 2021, participation outpaces jobs beat Australian jobs data for August 2026. Unemployment rate...
The muted reaction in AUD/USD reflects a report that offers something for both sides: headline hiring was strong, but a higher jobless rate and a fall in full-time roles temper the hawkish read. Rates markets are likely to treat the unemployment rise as a supply-side story, driven by participation, which keeps the...
With mainland markets and Stock Connect shut on the final day of the Trump-Xi summit, Hong Kong equities and the offshore yuan become the main channel for pricing any China-related headlines. Thinner cross-border flows can amplify moves in Hong Kong-listed China names, since southbound mainland buying is absent. The...
Australian Employment Change 39.5K expected 20K, prior -15.8K Full Time Employment Change -6.3K prior 6.3K Part-Time 45.8K prior -32.2K Participation Rate 67.1% expected 66.9%, prior 66.9% --- Background: Australia jobs preview: NAB leans to 4.4% unemployment on 20k gain in a close call Australia jobs preview: CBA...
The EUR/USD pair loses ground to near 1.1380 during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday. The major pair extends its downside as hawkish signals from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) boost the US Dollar (USD) against the Euro (EUR).
Sticky price pressures and the strongest hiring since February keep the inflation side of the Bank of Japan's case intact, even as activity growth slows. The survey's explicit link between cost pressures and the weak yen may add to policymakers' sensitivity to further currency weakness. For JGBs, already under...
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the United States (US) and China have agreed to extend a bilateral trade truce that was set to expire in November through January 10, Blomoberg reported on Wednesday.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Kyiv remains ready for a bilateral "energy ceasefire" with Russia after holding separate talks with the leaders of the United States (US) and the United Kingdom (UK) in New York City, CNBC reported on Wednesday.
Iran President Masoud Pezeshkian said that the country won't allow freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz while sanctions and a US blockade remain in place, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday.
Tuesday's peak just under 1.2500 was the highest for AUD/NZD since early 2013. The cross is trading just above 1.2400, on track for a second straight down day.
Gold price (XAU/USD) tumbles to near $4,290 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The precious metal loses momentum as hawkish signals from Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers bolstered rate hike expectations, weighing on non-yielding bullion.
The Aussie Dollar stumbles over 1% against the US Dollar on Wednesday as US Treasury yields soar, with the US 5- and 10-year T-note yields surpassing the 5% threshold amid investor confidence in further Federal Reserve tightening. The AUD/USD trades at 0.7039 after peaking at 0.7118.
The bottom of NZD/USD's range since April is about 0.5600, and the pair is back in the lower part of it. It is trading just under 0.5700, its lowest since early July, which is about where it was before the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) began raising rates on July 8.
Holding up the Yen is costing Japan more each time and working for less time. USD/JPY is trading above 158.00, on track for its first daily close above its 200-day average since September 2.
Europe's September business surveys were the strongest since April 2023, and the Euro fell to its lowest since late July on the day they came out. The eurozone's flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) composite reading came in at 53.1 against a 51.5 forecast, with services at 53 against 51.7.
The extension removes a near-term cliff risk for Asian assets, with the truce otherwise due to expire in November, and should underpin the yuan and China-sensitive currencies such as the Australian dollar. Because an extension was widely signposted, the bigger swing factor is whether the summit produces the broader...
Wednesday's flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) surveys showed US business growing at its fastest pace since July 2021 and British business slowing.
A dip to 4.4% would reinforce the view that Australia's labour market remains tight relative to RBA projections, likely supporting the Australian dollar and front-end yields as traders weigh the inflation trade-off the central bank has flagged. A steady 4.5% with modest job gains would largely match the RBA's own path...
Australia will release the August monthly employment report on Thursday at 01:30 GMT. Ahead of the announcement, analysts expect the country to have added 20K new jobs in the month, while the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain steady at 4.5%.
Previews of the Australian jobs data are here: Australia jobs preview: CBA sees 15,000 gain, unemployment steady at 4.5% Australia jobs preview: employment seen rebounding in August, jobless rate at 4.5% AUD looks ready for a bounce back if the jobs data is strong. I'll have more to come on this separately. In the...
US September S&P Global flash services PMI 58.7 vs 56.0 expected US treasury sells $70 billion of 5 year notes at a high yield of 5.033% Iranian president says Iran is open to diplomacy but will defend its interests in Hormuz Iranian official says reopening the Strait of Hormuz was discussed in U.S. talks Fed's Barr:...
The Treasury sold $70 billion of five-year notes at a high yield of 5.033%, compared with a when-issued (WI) yield of 5.002% just before the auction. That is a 3.1-basis-point tail, well above the six-auction average of 0.6 basis points. Bid-to-cover: 2.21X versus the 2.33X average Direct bidders: 29.92% versus the
US Treasury yields are trading at highs across the curve. The 10-year yield is above 5.09%, and the 30-year is near 5.39%. The question for traders is whether yields can stay at these levels as the market weighs strong growth against the risk of more inflation. At the time of the yield snapshot: 2-year: 4.8952%. The...
A senior Iranian official told Reuters about Tuesday's indirect talks with the United States: Reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the U.S. blockade were discussed. Iran's key priorities are permanently ending hostilities and lifting the U.S. naval blockade. Still many differences remain between Iran, US...
It is Iran's turn at the UN with Iran Pres. Pezeshkian taking the stage today. Note that US officials walked out of the UNGA hall ahead of his speech. In summary, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran needs nuclear energy, not a nuclear bomb, and argued that the nuclear issue cannot be settled on the...
Headlines: Oil slips below $100 as US-Iran talks put crude prices and Treasury yields at a crossroads The selloff in oil prices stalls as Trump pours cold water on expectations of an earlier end to the conflict Gold falls back to the major $4,300 support ahead of key US data as traders await new US-Iran developments...
Brown Brothers Harriman's (BBH) Elias Haddad reports EUR/USD is weaker on broad Dollar strength, but Eurozone data and European Central Bank (ECB) expectations cushion the downside. September Eurozone Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) beat forecasts, supporting additional ECB hikes.
Gold (XAU/USD) retraces Tuesday's gains on Wednesday and drifts lower, approaching the $4,300 area as the US Dollar Index (DXY) rallies further amid high US Treasury yields.
United Overseas Bank's (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann describe AUD/USD price action as range-bound around 0.7115, with intraday expectations for 0.7095 - 0.7125.
ING strategist Francesco Pesole notes the Dollar's resilience despite lower Oil prices and improved global risk sentiment, highlighting that hawkish Federal Reserve communication is keeping the Dollar supported.
GBP/JPY trades around 209.90 on Wednesday at the time of writing, virtually unchanged on the day with a modest 0.05% decline.
Commerzbank's Antje Praefcke reviews the Hungarian Central Bank decision to keep the key rate at 5.50% while lowering its medium-term inflation target to 2.5% from 2028. The MNB slightly raised its 2027 inflation forecast and will move to eight policy meetings per year.
EUR/CAD halts its four day-winning streak, trading around 1.6090 during the European hours on Wednesday. The currency cross is under pressure as the Euro (EUR) holds losses following the release of the latest HCOB Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for Germany and the broader Eurozone.
The Euro (EUR) remains on its back foot against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, extending its decline to two-and-a-half-month lows after dropping about 0.5% so far this week.
DBS Group Research economist Philip Wee expects the Swiss National Bank to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0% at the September 24 meeting, despite higher energy prices and a modest uptick in headline inflation.
Eurozone September flash services PMI 53.0 vs 51.5 expected Prior 51.6 Eurozone September flash manufacturing PMI 52.7 vs 52.6 expected Prior 52.7 Eurozone September flash composite PMI 53.1 vs 51.7 expected Prior 52.0 Following the stronger showings in both France and Germany earlier, the more robust business...
France September flash services PMI 51.4 vs 48.3 expected Prior 48.0 France September flash manufacturing PMI 50.3 vs 50.9 expected Prior 51.1 France September flash composite PMI 51.2 vs 48.7 expected Prior 48.5 That is a strong read as French business activity moved back into expansion territory (>50.0) in...
We will be getting the preliminary PMI data for September for France, Germany, and the overall Eurozone later today. In terms of key estimates, markets are looking for: Manufacturing PMI: France 50.9 (prior 51.1), Germany 54.0 (prior 54.3), Eurozone 52.6 (prior 52.7) Services PMI: France 48.3 (prior 48.0), Germany...
The Indian Rupee (INR) trades lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday after rising in the past few trading days.
A China inflation forecast below 1% for both this year and next underlines how little price pressure the world's second-largest economy is generating, keeping deflation risk in view and leaving room for further policy support from Beijing. That contrasts with much of the rest of the region, where energy costs tied to...
Australia jobs preview: CBA sees 15,000 gain, unemployment steady at 4.5% Morgan Stanley prefers Nokia as it turns bearish on Ericsson Australia jobs preview: employment seen rebounding in August, jobless rate at 4.5% Gold edges up or goes nowhere? Headlines clash as rates and oil pull in opposite ways PBOC sets USD/...
With CBA below consensus and Westpac above it , the major banks bracket the market's 20,000 forecast, so a result anywhere in that band is unlikely to move rate expectations much ahead of next week's widely expected RBA hike. The bigger swing factor is the unemployment rate: CBA's view that it needs to drift higher to...
The data land days before the Reserve Bank of Australia's 29 September meeting, where a rate increase is widely expected, so a result near or above forecasts would do little to shift near-term pricing but could firm expectations for further tightening in November. A second straight fall in employment, or a jump in...
The survey hands the RBA a mixed signal days before its 29 September decision: softer demand and job cuts argue for caution, while faster growth in output prices keeps the inflation case for a hike alive. With markets already heavily priced for a move, the data may do more to shape expectations for November than for...
The findings reinforce the structural case against Germany's export-heavy industrial base, a headwind for autos, machinery and capital goods names that a cyclical recovery may only partly offset. For the ECB, cheaper Chinese imports are a potential source of downward pressure on goods prices, which could complicate...
Recap: US and Iran meet in New York on UNGA sidelines, Hormuz conditions on the table Trump and Bessent talk about a diesel export ban. Also says spoke with Iran for 3 hours Fed's Barkin says he thinks the hiking cycle could be like the Greenspan "mid-cycle adjustment" US treasury sells $69 billion of two-year notes...
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that the Taiwan Dollar (TWD) has extended gains, briefly strengthening near 31.71 versus the US Dollar (USD), supported by strong foreign portfolio inflows and domestic equity outperformance tied to tech and AI themes.
Gold (XAU/USD) price retreats from daily highs of $4,376 on Tuesday as US Treasury yields rise and the US Dollar continues to strengthen, with investors pricing in further Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening towards year-end. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,337, down 0.14%.
MUFG's Michael Wan notes that improved risk sentiment and AI optimism around Meta's Muse supported a slightly stronger Dollar and stable DM yields.
The US Dollar (USD) has extended its recovery on Tuesday, climbing to new multi-week highs on the back of steady bets for extra Fed tightening, while increasing hopes of a potential deal to unlock the US-Iran-Hormuz conflict seem to have been ignored by market participants.
United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann expect USD/CNH to edge lower intraday but stay confined to a narrow 6.6890 - 6.6960 range, with a clear break below 6.6890 seen as unlikely. Over one to three weeks, they see downside extending toward 6.6820 as momentum builds.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil extends its decline on Tuesday as traders assess fresh Middle East developments, keeping energy prices under pressure for a fifth straight day. At the time of writing, WTI trades around $89.50, near a two-week low.
US President Donald Trump is figuring out a solution to end the war between Russia and Ukraine, after meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Furthermore, he added that Russian President Vladimir Putin is willing to meet to end the war.
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong report that the Korean Won (KRW) strengthened alongside gains in tech equities, lower Oil prices and strong export data, including a surge in semiconductor shipments.
The Dollar Index trades near 100.70, its highest level since late July. It has climbed through five straight sessions of falling Crude Oil, the opposite of how the war has moved it for most of this year. The Fed is the reason.
Richmond Federal Reserve (Fed) President Thomas Barkin said on Tuesday that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to raise interest rates last Wednesday because inflation risks outweighed those to maximum employment.
High yield of 4.787% WI level at the time of the auction 4.785% Tail 0.2 basis points versus average of 0.1 basis point Bid to cover 2.63X average of 2.61X Directs 29.2% versus average of 28.3% Indirects 57.79% versus average of 58.6% Dealers 13.19% versus average of 13.1% Auction grade: C The auction was close to...
The Pound Sterling (GBP) dives over 0.17% against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday amid newswire reports that Tehran intends to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the United States meets certain conditions. At the time of writing, GBP/USD trades at 1.3343 after peaking at 1.3387.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose on Tuesday to its highest level since September 14 before the opening bell, then turned lower once trading started in New York. It trades near 51,800, below Monday's close. The NASDAQ Composite tested record highs and the S&P 500 is barely changed.
Headlines: Fars news denies reports of Iran ready to reopen Strait of Hormuz if the US eases blockade Oil prices extend decline as Saudi Arabia restarts East-West pipeline, prepares to resume crude exports Silver remains supported amid growing Middle East de-escalation hopes as Iran offers to reopen Hormuz Oil prices...
Reports of potential negotiations between Iran and the US and the possibility of the Strait of Hormuz reopening pushed oil prices lower earlier in the session, but Iranian sources are now denying the claims via Fars News. Kyodo and Reuters reported earlier, citing Iranian sources, that Tehran could be prepared to...
Saudi Arabia is preparing to resume crude oil exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu as early as Tuesday, according to people familiar with the matter, in another sign that the kingdom is gradually restoring its disrupted oil export infrastructure. Several Asian refiners have reportedly been informed by Saudi Aramco...
Gold (XAU/USD) trades lower for the second consecutive day on Tuesday, extending its decline to levels below $4,320 during the European session, as the recovery attempt from last week's low was capped at $4,400.
ING's Frantisek Taborsky expects the National Bank of Hungary to pause its mini easing cycle at 5.50% and possibly outline a two-step cut in its inflation target from 3.0% to 2.0%.
Brown Brothers Harriman's (BBH) Elias Haddad notes the US Dollar (USD) is extending gains after the latest hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) hike, even as reopening prospects for the Strait of Hormuz temper the move and weigh on Oil.
MUFG's Lee Hardman highlights the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as the main overnight mover, boosted by hawkish guidance from Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Breman. His comments on higher Oil-driven inflation have reinforced expectations for a third consecutive 25 bps hike next month.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, retreats slightly after hitting a fresh high since July 30 during the early European session on Tuesday. The index, however, lacks follow-through and currently trades just below mid-100.00s, unchanged for the day.
United Overseas Bank's (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann see AUD/USD consolidating around 0.7120 after a brief spike to 0.7140. Intraday price action is viewed as part of a 0.7105 - 0.7135 range.
According to a report from Kyodo news, a senior Iranian official has said that Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint to almost 20% of global energy supply, within seven days if the United States (US) takes initial steps toward easing military pressure.
Iran has offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the United States takes steps to ease military and economic pressure on Tehran, according to a senior Iranian government official cited by Kyodo News . The proposal was reportedly conveyed to Washington through intermediaries as diplomatic efforts...
The Euro (EUR) is failing to draw any support from the moderate risk appetite triggered by the recent pullback in Oil prices and extends losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, hitting fresh seven-week lows below 1.1450.
Silver price (XAG/USD) is down 1.75% to near $64.85 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The white metal is under severe selling pressure as Federal Reserve (Fed) officials warn that strong demand is also fuelling upside inflation risks alongwith higher oil prices.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) extends its losing streak after losing daily gains, trading around $90.20 per barrel during the European hours on Tuesday.
John Velis at BNY Markets argues that current US inflation is being driven by non-rate-sensitive components of core PCE, limiting how effective further Federal Reserve tightening can be.
After all the hype and talk about the Fed, somehow stocks are finding some breathing room again. The Nasdaq closed at a record high on Monday as AI optimism returned, while the S&P 500 also posted a strong rebound. Lower oil prices and a mild retreat in Treasury yields have helped improve the mood after last week's...
The Indian Rupee (INR) opens higher again versus the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday but later gives back its early gains. The USD/INR pair flattens at around 95.82 ahead of meeting between leaders from the United States (US) and Gulf nations regarding the energy supply through the Middle East.
RBA's Bullock says supply shocks hard for policy to manage, flags second round risk Low expectations set for Trump-Xi meeting as trade truce set to be extended RBNZ's Breman says higher oil prices point to firmer near-term inflation ICYMI: Bessent says all Iranian airlines will be shut down worldwide from September 23...
With both sides signalling modest ambitions, markets are unlikely to see a major trade breakthrough from this week's meeting, reducing the odds of a sharp risk on move tied to US-China relations specifically. The expected extension of the Busan trade truce, due to expire in November, removes a near term tail risk of...
The rules add a fresh layer of regulatory cost and complexity for data centre developers operating in Victoria, potentially slowing approvals or raising build costs for companies required to source dedicated renewable energy and non-drinking water supplies. Because the changes are not retrospective, already approved...
Fed's Collins pencils in second hike this year, then expects rates on hold in 2027 Nasdaq Composite closes at a record as Meta and chip stocks surge Trump proposes USD 5 billion fund to help rebuild Gulf energy sites - WSJ St. Louis Fed's Musalem: Interest rates likely need to rise further to tame inflation Meta...
On Monday, Boston Federal Reserve (Fed) President Susan Collins said the resumption of hostilities in the Middle East was a key reason for supporting the increase in the Fed funds rate last week.
UOB's Jester Koh assesses Singapore's soft labour market and its implications for Monetary Authority of Singapore policy. The Labour Market Pressure Index shows rising slack, which UOB links to weaker passthrough of supply-side shocks into inflation.
Gold price retreats on Monday, down over 0.6% following last week's Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike. That 25 bps hike initially pushed US bond yields higher, but the US Dollar Index (DXY) has recovered some ground on Monday despite Treasury yields falling in the back half.
OCBC's Christopher Wong notes that Indonesia's appointment of Finance Minister Suahasil Nazara signals fiscal continuity and discipline, helping to reduce domestic risk premia for the Rupiah.
The Trump administration's proposal was reported by the Wall Street Journal, citing U.S. and Middle Eastern officials and documents: The Trump administration has proposed investing USD 5 billion in a new fund that would help Middle Eastern countries rebuild energy infrastructure battered in the Iran war and reduce...
ING strategists Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note ICE Brent and WTI started the week lower despite persistent supply risks and elevated speculative length. They highlight Saudi Aramco's curtailed allocations after pipeline damage, tighter European crude markets, and strong bullish positioning.
Commerzbank's Henry Hao and Moses Lim highlight that Singapore's August NODX growth was the strongest since 1998, driven by surging electronics and robust AI-related demand. They expect NODX to stay firm but moderate as base effects fade.
St. Louis Federal Reserve (Fed) President Alberto Musalem said interest rates likely need to rise further to tame inflation that is both demand- and supply-driven.
AUD/USD reverses its earlier gains on Monday as a broadly firmer US Dollar (USD) and hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations cap the upside.
OCBC's Christopher Wong comments that USD/KRW eased as Korean equities rebounded and foreign investors briefly turned net buyers, but warns this may not mark a lasting shift.
The US Dollar (USD) has started the week on a positive footing, rapidly leaving behind two daily drops in a row and refocusing on the upper end of its recent range amid steady bets for extra rate hikes by the Fed and reignited geopolitical tensions.
The Bank of Canada Governor, Tiff Macklem, said that he expects inflation to "drift up a little higher in the coming months," and commented that "a new era of uncertainty is not going away any time soon," as he spoke in Halifax.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) trades near 51,900 on Monday after its worst week since March. Crude Oil fell back under $100 after President Donald Trump told Fox News he'd probably be open to meeting Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian at the United Nations General Assembly this week.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hit the news circuit today and followed up with a post on X touting economic gains under the administration. Meanwhile, President Trump has been posting a mix of combative press criticism, upbeat trade/policy announcements, and walked back escalatory war rhetoric on Iran - a pattern...
Comments from Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem cross the wires: If new US tariffs remain in place, Q4 growth could be roughly halved to below 1% If oil prices stay near $100 a barrel, we'd expect inflation to edge up in coming months Fuel prices have risen more than we'd normally expect, reflecting damage to...
Reuters -- citing two sources -- reports that Yemen's President spoke to US President Donald Trump on Sunday. Yeme's President asked for miliary help but Trump made no pledges. Oil is down $3.38 to $92.77 today on hopes for a new round of diplomacy to find a way for the US and Iran to end hostilities. That move is...
Headlines: Crude oil falls on de-escalation hopes as focus shifts to the US General Assembly. What's next? Brent crude cools from recent highs, but $100 oil keeps bond markets on edge USD/JPY intervention risk grows as Japan holiday leaves yen exposed in thin liquidity Gold (XAU/USD) analysis: Consolidation ahead of...
AUD/USD edges higher on Monday, trading around 0.7130 at the time of writing, up 0.06% on the day. The Australian Dollar (AUD) benefits mainly from strengthening expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could raise interest rates again at its monetary policy meeting next week.
Gold price (XAU/USD) is down 0.61% to near $4,350 during the European trading session on Monday. The yellow metal is under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) remains broadly firm amid solid expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hike interest rates again this year.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) nurses minor losses against the US Dollar (USD) to pare some of the previous two trading days' recovery.
MUFG's Lee Hardman notes that the Japanese Yen initially weakened sharply after the latest BoJ policy update, with USD/JPY briefly above 158.00 before retreating towards 157.00.
Crude prices extend their decline for the fourth consecutive day on Monday, pushing the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil to levels just below $94.00 during the European session.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) broadly unchanged on Monday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $66.22 per troy ounce, broadly unchanged 0.05% from the $66.26 it cost on Friday.
OCBC's Christopher Wong notes that the US Dollar Index (DXY) has held a firmer tone after the FOMC's 25 bp hike and a higher rate path, supported by elevated US Treasury yields.
ING's Francesco Pesole explains that despite political noise in Germany and an additional ECB hike now expected in December, ING keeps its EUR/USD profile unchanged with a 1.160 year-end target.
EUR/CAD extends its gains for the third successive day, trading around 1.6090 during the European hours on Monday. The currency cross remains stronger as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) struggles amid lower oil prices.
According to Xinhua news agency, China has now put a firm date on its next major political gathering. The fifth plenary session of the 20th Central Committee will reportedly run from 26 to 29 October in Beijing. The agenda is expected to centre again on strengthening self-governance, but I'd still expect markets to...
Gold (XAU/USD) maintains its offered tone through the first half of the European session on Monday and currently trades around $4,350, down over 0.50% for the day.
US president Trump and China president Xi will be meeting in Washington on 24 September this week. And from a markets perspective, I think the most interesting part isn't necessarily what gets signed. It is instead the position in which both leaders are negotiating from. On the one hand, China president Xi looks...
Trump flips twice on Houthi airstrikes after call with Saudi crown prince ICYMI: JPMorgan says Middle East oil flows holding up despite Saudi pipeline outage Blackstone's Gray says India is its best private equity market, nearing a tipping point All four major Australian banks now forecast RBA hike to 4.60% on...
The tone is constructive, but the reported outcomes are procedural and no tariff rates or purchase volumes have been given, so markets are unlikely to treat this as a breakthrough. US energy and agricultural exporters are the obvious sentiment beneficiaries if goods in those categories end up on the final Board of...
OCBC strategist Christopher Wong highlights that Taiwan's CBC kept its policy rate at 2% for a tenth straight quarter with a mildly hawkish tone, sharply raising 2026 growth and inflation forecasts while flagging sticky services inflation.
Commerzbank's Charlie Lay and Henry Hao report that Taiwan's CBC kept its policy rate at 2.0% for a tenth straight meeting, signalling a patient stance.
OCBC strategist Christopher Wong notes that the Korean Won remains under pressure as foreign selling of Korean equities persists and elevated US yields after the FOMC continue to weigh. Large-cap technology stocks are at the centre of outflows, though the broader KOSPI has held up.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Japanese Yen (JPY) is down sharply versus the US Dollar (USD) after a dovishly delivered 25 bps Bank of Japan (BoJ) hike and Governor Ueda's cautious guidance.
OCBC's Christopher Wong highlights that Singapore's August NODX surged 46.2% year-on-year, far above consensus, with electronics exports jumping on AI-related demand and broad-based strength across markets.
The Aussie Dollar is poised to end the week on a positive note versus the US Dollar, up 0.21% as improved risk appetite keeps AUD/USD trading near 0.7124, closing near Friday's highs.
Chang Wei Liang at DBS Group Research highlights that USD/CNH is easing toward 6.70 despite a stronger Dollar, with the Renminbi (RMB) supported by a lower USD/CNY fixing below 6.76.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) turns negative on Friday, down 0.11% against the US Dollar (USD), in a week that saw the Federal Reserve's (Fed) first rate hike in three years, which underpinned the Greenback against most G8 FX currencies.
United Overseas Bank's (UOB) Quek Ser Leang notes that USD/SGD has slipped into a short-term range phase after a sharp pullback, with intraday trading expected between 1.2735 and 1.2775.
US industrial production 0.0% versus 0.3% expected Kansas City Fed's Schmid: recent data suggest inflation trending above 3% Japan conducted an FX rate check earlier - report How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events? Markets: Gold up $41 to $4381 US 10-year yields up 6 bps to 5.01% WTI...
Christopher Wong at OCBC writes that the Malaysian Ringgit weakened during Thursday's Asian session on a firmer US Dollar and higher US Treasury yields after the FOMC, with USD/MYR briefly trading above 4.10 in an orderly move.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret highlight that the British Pound (GBP) is only marginally firmer versus the US Dollar (USD) despite stronger-than-expected August retail sales.
WTI crude oil on the November contract is trading down $1.64 to $95.60. That's something of a win for the bears, as it finished last week at $95.94. Since then, we've had a mixed series of updates on the pipeline attacks in Saudi Arabia but the latest ones say they're doing bypasses of the damaged pumping stations and...
US Treasury yields rise on Friday, boosted mainly by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) decision to increase rates on Wednesday, while the Bank of Japan (BoJ) added its name to the list of major central banks focused on preventing inflation from getting out of control.
Rabobank strategists Bas van Geffen and Elwin de Groot highlight that sharply higher Oil and natural gas forecasts will lift headline Eurozone inflation by about 0.5 percentage points in 2026 and 2027.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report the Euro (EUR) is posting a small gain versus the US Dollar (USD) as EUR/USD extends Thursday's modest recovery and attempts to stabilize after the latest FOMC meeting.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades on the front foot on Friday as the US Dollar reverses its intraday gains, with traders booking profits following the Greenback's strong weekly advance.
Gold (XAU/USD) price extends its gains on Friday, edging up 0.89% as Oil prices eased despite renewed concerns of supply shortages and despite a week that featured a rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed), which pushed the yellow metal to a nearly two-month low of $4,235.
USD/CHF turns lower on Friday as the US Dollar (USD) loses momentum heading into the weekend, with traders booking profits after a strong weekly advance driven by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish interest-rate hike.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its rate to 1.25% on Friday and the Yen weakened anyway. The Dollar Index ran to its highest level since late July on that and has given the move back, trading just above 100.30.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average trades near 51,500, back at the level where Wednesday's selling stopped, which means Thursday's rebound is gone. The selling ran one way down from the session high, and every level that looked like a floor turned into a step.
USD/JPY advances sharply on Friday, trading around 156.95 at the time of writing, up 0.63% on the day. The pair has pulled back after reaching a daily high of 158.06 earlier in the day.
On Friday, Kansas City Federal Reserve (Fed) President Jeffrey Schmid said he supported the rate hike, as "recent data suggest inflation trending above 3%." Schmid added that tightening policy is a step toward achieving the Fed's 2% goal, that inflation has broadened across a set of goods and servic
The Pound Sterling (GBP) retraces on Friday after reaching a daily high of 1.3375 on upbeat UK data, as headlines suggest that an Oil supply shock has sent crude prices higher and reignited investors' fears of high inflation. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD pair trades at 1.3356, down 0.03%.
Headlines: USD/JPY jumps to 157 after BOJ rate hike as dovish dissents weigh on yen BOJ governor Ueda says will continue to tighten policy in response to economic, price developments BOJ governor Ueda says spring wage talks key to judging inflation trend ECB president Lagarde pushes back on automatic rate hikes as...
Gold (XAU/USD) extends gains for the second consecutive day on Friday as the pullback in US Treasury yields has offset the negative impact of the hawkish hike delivered by the Federal Reserve (Fed) earlier this week.
United Overseas Bank's (UOB) Quek Ser Leang notes that AUD/USD has rebounded after an oversold slide, with intraday price action now expected between 0.7095 and 0.7130.
OCBC strategist Christopher Wong observes that the US Dollar (USD) has eased modestly as UST yields and Oil retraced from their post-FOMC spikes. He sees the move as consolidation, with further USD gains likely needing another leg higher in UST yields.
ING's Francesco Pesole highlights that recent European Central Bank commentary remains broadly hawkish, with limited pushback from the dovish camp.
Danske Bank's Danske Research Team highlights that the Bank of England left Bank Rate at 3.75% with a 6-3 vote, disappointing hawkish market expectations and triggering GBP weakness and lower rates.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, regains positive traction on Friday and maintains its bid tone through the first half of the European session.
The British Pound (GBP) is up 0.1% at around 1.3372 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday. The GBP/USD pair gains as the British currency rises, following the release of the surprisingly upbeat United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales data for August.
The US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil is heading for its first weekly decline in the last three weeks, as prices near the $95 level after hitting fresh four-month highs at 102.07 last Tuesday.
MUFG's Derek Halpenny notes that the Bank of Japan's 25bp hike to 1.25% fell short of hawkish market pricing, triggering an initial Yen sell-off as expectations for larger moves proved overdone.
United Overseas Bank's (UOB) Quek Ser Leang notes USD/CHF remains in a consolidation phase after a sharp rally, with intraday trading expected between 0.8225 and 0.8265.
UK August retail sales +0.5% vs -0.2% m/m expected Prior -0.5% UK August retail sales +2.4% vs +1.9% y/y expected Prior +1.6%; revised to +1.2% UK August retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +0.6% vs -0.2% m/m expected Prior -0.9% UK August retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +2.7% vs +1.9% y/y expected Prior +2.3%; revised to...
The Indian Rupee (INR) opens sharply higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, with the USD/INR pair correcting to near 95.75 from an over seven-week high of 96.10 posted the previous day.
Yen weakens on BoJ hike as two dissents temper hawkish read Alt headlines: Bank of Japan (BOJ) raises policy rate by 25bp, as expected Re Airbus, Pratt & Whitney: French airline has grounded a newly upgraded aircraft Goldman keeps $5,400 gold forecast intact despite Fed hike UBS sees two more RBA hikes to 4.85%...
Just the data here, I'll have more to come on this separately. August y/y headline CPI 1.9% expected 2.0%, prior 1.9% CPI Ex-Food and Energy (AKA core-core CPI) 1.7% expected 2.0%, prior 1.8% Ex-Food CPI (AKA core CPI) 1.7% expected 1.8%, prior 1.8% Background: Preview: BoJ rate hike bet stays intact as Japan awaits...
New Zealand August data. Trade Balance -1349mn Expected -1775mn, Prior -2118mn Annual Trade Balance -5.44bn Imports 8bn Prior 9.33bn Exports 6.66bn Prior 7.22bn --- Food Prices (y/y) 1.9% Prior 1.9% for the m/m +0.3% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
US September Philly Fed business index +37.8 vs +30.5 expected US August housing starts 1.275m vs 1.309m expected US initial jobless claims come in at 196K vs 208K estimate Canada August producer price index +1.3% m/m vs +0.6% prior BOE's Bailey: Decision on rates will get more difficult the longer the Iran conflict...
OCBC strategist Christopher Wong highlights that Singapore Dollar (SGD) remains largely driven by the broader Dollar story after the FOMC, given its high sensitivity to USD moves.
MUFG's Lloyd Chan remains cautious on the Thai Baht, keeping the USD/THB forecast at 34.00 by year-end.
The US Dollar (USD) is ending Thursday softer. The US Dollar Index (DXY) hovers just above the 100.00 mark after climbing to a seven-week high earlier in the week. The sideways action follows Wednesday's decision by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise interest rates for the first time since 2023.
Silver (XAG/USD) surges to five-day highs above $66.00 on Thursday as traders digest the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike on Wednesday. Meanwhile, a drop in US Treasury yields is undermining the Greenback, which clings to early gains but has barely changed.
The Fed has set out to tackle inflation and they certainly have the tools to get the job done. How aggressively they use those tools and how the economy responds is less certain, so is the geopolitical backdrop. At the moment, the market is pricing in the thinnest rate hike in US history so the consensus is that...
Gold (XAU/USD) rallies on Thursday, up by more than 2% as investors digest the latest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed), while a fall in Oil prices pushed the US Dollar and US yields lower.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades near 111.00 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) near 89.50 on Thursday, both a little higher and both a long way below where they were in August.
Commerzbank's China-focused FX Research highlights that PBoC Governor Pan Gongsheng framed weaker loan growth as part of structural upgrading, signalling no imminent credit-driven stimulus.
Crude Oil trades near $97.50, which is where it opened on Thursday, after a drop to $94.50 and a full recovery. Saudi Arabia is offering Asian refiners extra cargoes handed over outside the Strait of Hormuz, and the price treated that as more oil.
EUR/GBP is trading higher on Thursday, climbing toward the 0.8600 barrier and touching its highest in several days. The Pound has slipped across the board after the Bank of England (BoE) held interest rates and struck a more cautious tone than much of the market had priced in.
United Overseas Bank's (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note USD/SGD surged to 1.2784 and closed at 1.2783, its largest one-day gain in three months, with strong momentum despite overbought conditions.
Societe Generale's technical team notes USD/BRL's decline stalled near 4.88 in May and the pair has since traded within a base. Price action struggles above the 200-day moving average, signalling weak upside momentum.
USD/JPY trades cautiously on Thursday as attention shifts to the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) monetary policy decision on Friday after the Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered a widely expected 25-basis-point rate hike on Wednesday.
US President Trump told Axios he is at a "critical juncture" regarding the war in Iran: The officials say Trump needs to decide soon on the way forward, partly because the US military can't stay in its current holding pattern much longer. "At some point you have to decide what is the end game." Trump and Hegseth have...
China has privately asked Iran to use its influence over Yemen's Houthis to help contain the group's military campaign, according to three Iranian sources familiar with the matter . The request reportedly followed an appeal from Saudi Arabia to Beijing as Houthi forces rapidly expanded their control along Yemen's Red...
Headlines: BOE leaves bank rate unchanged at 3.75% in 6-3 vote Long-end Treasury yields stay calm as markets digest the Fed Was the Fed really that hawkish or the market just overreacted? An objective overview Oil prices ease as Saudi Arabia projects to restore half pipeline capacity within days and Trump plans...
EUR/JPY falls 0.25% on Thursday, trading around 178.70 at the time of writing and snapping a three-day winning streak. The strengthening Japanese Yen (JPY) weighs on the cross as investors anticipate another interest rate hike from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) on Friday.
The Euro (EUR) consolidates losses at one-and-a-half-month lows on Thursday, with the US Dollar (USD) still buoyed by the hawkish message sent by the Federal Reserve (Fed) after Wednesday's monetary policy meeting.
MUFG's Derek Halpenny notes the US Dollar is holding most of its post-FOMC gains after a 25bps hike and hawkish guidance from Fed Chair Warsh. The Fed's projections imply only gradual disinflation and a higher long-run rate, but market pricing had already anticipated more tightening.
Societe Generale sees scope for the British Pound (GBP) to outperform its G10 peers outside the US Dollar (USD), as accelerating UK growth and inflation strengthen the case for a more hawkish Bank of England (BoE).
EUR/CAD appreciates after posting modest losses in the previous day, trading around 1.6050 during the European hours on Thursday. The currency cross holds its ground, driven by a stronger Euro (EUR) following the release of the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for August.
United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight that EUR/USD has fallen for five straight sessions, closing at 1.1464 after a sharp 0.68% drop.
Commerzbank's Michael Pfister expects the Czech National Bank (CNB) to keep rates unchanged today, in line with Bloomberg consensus and market pricing. Despite firmer inflation, officials still see policy as sufficiently restrictive, with a hint of future hikes.
Eurozone August final CPI +3.2% vs +3.3% y/y expected Prior +2.9% Eurozone August final core CPI +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y expected Prior +2.5% The breakdownThe final estimate shows a mild revision lower to headline annual inflation, recording 3.2% in August. The monthly estimate still reaffirms a 0.4% move higher in...
OCBC strategist Christopher Wong writes that USD/JPY climbed after the FOMC as front-end US yields rose and the US Dollar (USD) strengthened. He says markets expect a 25bp BoJ hike to 1.25%, with focus on Governor Ueda's guidance on further normalisation.
Crude prices are trading lower for the second consecutive day on Thursday, with the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil trading just below $97, down from the four-month highs above $102.00 hit earlier this week and drawing closer to the bottom of the weekly trading range around $96.00.
The AUD/USD pair gains some positive traction on Thursday, snapping a three-day losing streak to the 0.7075 area, or a nearly one-month low, touched the previous day.
There are plenty of ways to pick apart the market reaction to the Fed, but I think the one that matters most right now is happening in the bond market. More specifically, at the long-end of the curve. 10-year Treasury yields are still hovering just below 5% after the Fed raised interest rates by 25 bps and delivered...
After the EU talked about pulling Canada closer to its orbit yesterday, it was only a matter of time before we see Trump respond with his distaste and displeasure over the situation. And you can probably guess what his go-to response was to that. Yes, tariffs. Again. The EU opened the door for Canada to become the...
The Bank of England (BoE) is set to reveal its latest monetary policy decision on Thursday, coinciding with its sixth rate-setting meeting of 2026.
Nikkei, Kospi gain as expected Fed hike and lower oil ease market nerves TD forecast a Federal Reserve (FOMC) rate hike in October and January Goldman ditches one and done call, now sees a second Fed hike in October Saudi crude reroute via Oman pulls oil off four month highs PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.7580...
New Zealand Q2 GDP +2.6% y/y expected +2.3%, prior +1.7% +0.2% q/q expected +0.1%, prior +0.9% I'll have more to come on this separately ... added, here: NZ Q2 GDP beats forecasts at 2.6% y/y, easing RBNZ growth concerns This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
A cancelled or downgraded summit would likely revive the trade friction narrative that had eased since the two leaders' May meeting in Beijing, with implications for sectors tied to that fragile detente, including agricultural exporters awaiting the Chinese soybean and grain purchases promised earlier this year, and...
NZD/USD reaction is likely to hinge less on the more upbeat bank forecasts and more on how far the actual print diverges from the RBNZ's own flat, 0.0% q/q baseline, since that is the figure underpinning the central bank's current policy guidance. A print in line with or above that flat forecast would likely be read...
You know the people who think they are cool 'cause they have contrarian "hot takes" (after the event, of course ;-) )? Well, here's my effort: This is a boring week, nothing unexpected happened. Clarity bill failed - expected! FOMC hike - expected! NZ GDP the main info item today, I'll be back with a preview soon....
Spot Gold (XAU/USD) is closing Wednesday with losses, trading around $4,250 after hitting an intraday high of $4,366.
Fed's Warsh: The economy appears to be strengthening Fed dot plot signals another 2026 rate hike as growth strengthens and inflation remains elevated The full statement from the Federal Reserve Board for September 2026 FOMC rate decision: Fed hikes for the first time in three years BOC summary of deliberations:...
Silver (XAG/USD) trades under pressure on Wednesday as a stronger US Dollar (USD) and rising US Treasury yields weigh on the non-yielding metal following the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy decision. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $62.68, down 1.56% on the day.
The US Dollar (USD) has navigated a positive range on Wednesday, gathering extra pace after the Federal Reserve (Fed) hiked its Fed Funds Target Rate (FFTR) by a quarter percentage point, as widely anticipated.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh is holding a press conference following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision to raise the Funds Target Range to 3.75% - 4.00%, as expected.
The Federal Reserve's (Fed) latest dot plot projections, released by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Wednesday, show policymakers now expect interest rates to stand at 4.1% by the end of 2026, up from 3.8% in June.
The Loonie trades at its weakest since early August, with USD/CAD just under 1.4000 after a 71-pip rise and a 0.51% gain. The Fed raised its rate a quarter-point to 3.75-4.00% and the Bank of Canada did not, which takes the distance between them from 1.375 points to 1.625.
AUD/USD extends losses on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve (Fed) raised interest rates and released a hawkish set of policy projections. The pair slides more than 20 pips in the immediate reaction and trades around 0.7093 at the time of writing.
The Dollar Index broke above 100.00, back above both of its long-run averages. The quarter-point that took the Fed to 3.75-4.00% was fully priced and worth nothing on its own.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) trades just above 51,500 on Wednesday, down 576 points and 1.11%, its worst session of the month.
The Pound trades just under 1.3400, 91 pips lower and down 0.68%. The Fed took its rate to 3.75-4.00% and, measured at the midpoint of the new range, American money now pays more than British money for the first time this year.
The Euro (EUR) trades just under 1.1500 against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, through the pair of long-run averages that had held it up since early August.
This section below was published at 18:00 GMT to cover the Federal Reserve's policy decisions and the immediate market reaction.
Headlines: FOMC preview: The question is not whether the Fed hikes today, but how much tightening it signals Fed rate decision: Warsh walks credibility tightrope as markets brace for rate hike Why markets have left the Fed little choice but to hike rates UK headline inflation tops 3% again in August, but core prices...
US officials held talks with Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis in Oman over the weekend, according to five sources familiar with the matter cited by Reuters . The meeting comes as the Houthis have expanded their control along Yemen's Red Sea coast, increasing the strategic importance of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and putting...
Danske Research Team notes that the US Dollar (USD) remained firm, pushing EUR/USD modestly lower as risk sentiment weakened. In the euro area, Germany's September ZEW survey showed a sharp improvement in current conditions, while expectations disappointed.
Societe Generale highlights GBP/USD trading just above its 200-day moving average, with the August trough around 1.3440 - 1.3420 acting as a key support zone.
AUD/JPY trades around 110.55 on Wednesday at the time of writing, virtually unchanged on the day.
MUFG's Lloyd Chan notes that the US Dollar has strengthened modestly as US Treasury yields climb, with the US 10-year yield reaching 5.00% and the 2-year at 4.66%.
UOB's Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report USD/JPY has extended its rebound to around 155.08, with modest upward momentum suggesting scope for a test above 155.50, while 156.30 remains a distant cap.
The Eurozone industrial sector activity declines 0.1% in July, according to data published by Eurostat. The industrial output was expected to decline but at a faster pace of 0.2%. In June, the data also contracted by 0.1%, revised lower from 0%.
The GBP/USD pair attracts fresh sellers following an intraday uptick to the 1.3500 neighborhood and drops to the lower end of its daily range during the first half of the European session on Wednesday.
ING's Francesco Pesole highlights that the Federal Reserve announcement could push EUR/USD towards the 1.150 target.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price depreciates after posting nearly 3% gains in the previous day, trading around $100.00 per barrel during European hours on Wednesday.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) turns flat against the US Dollar (USD) at around 155.00 in the European trading session on Wednesday after recovering its early losses.
This is a rather bold proposal coming from European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, in her her annual state of the European Union address in Strasbourg. She has opened the door for Canada to become the first "associate member" of the EU, backing Canadian prime minister, Mark Carney's pitch for a more...
UK August CPI +3.1% vs +3.1% y/y expected Prior +2.9% UK August core CPI +2.6% vs +2.6% y/y expected Prior +2.6% The main readings are all within estimates, with UK headline inflation seen picking up again in August - jumping above 3% for the first time since March. Higher energy prices was the biggest contributor,...
The Indian Rupee (INR) holds onto over-a-week long losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday.
The UK inflation report for August today is going to be the main highlight in terms of economic data releases in the European session later today. With it coming just a day before the BOE rate decision tomorrow, it is the last meaningful piece of the puzzle for policymakers before they cast their votes. To start off,...
OpenAI in talks for funding round above $1.2 trillion valuation Ethereum retests broken resistance near $2,470 as exchange supply keeps shrinking Triple good news for Solana, sell the fact for SOL price PBOC's Pan signals shift away from China loan growth targets, looks to stabilise debt Staking and ETFs drain ether...
The improved but still below-trend reading gives the Reserve Bank some room to hold at its September meeting without abandoning its tightening bias, consistent with Westpac's own call for a very hawkish hold ahead of a further rate rise later this year. For AUD, the report's signal cuts both ways: firmer momentum and...
The soft machinery orders print undercuts the case for near term Bank of Japan tightening, as a weaker leading capex signal suggests the investment side of the economy may be losing steam just as the BoJ weighs its next move on policy normalisation. I suspect, along with most everyone else that a rate hike this week...
The core of the US proposal is a hard cap on how much of an AI server, chip or related piece of hardware can be built from parts sourced outside North America, which would directly hit the assembly model many firms have used to route Chinese made components through Mexico. That threshold, once set, would raise costs...
I think we can all agree it's a wating day for the FOMC. The Fed battleground is no longer Wednesday's meeting, but the ones afterwards Calendar for the session ahead: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Explosions heard in Saudi Arabia Canadians continued to spend through August - RBC spending tracker shows US 20-year bond auction tails by 2 bps Bessent: For a nominal amount, the US Treasury was able to signal support for Japanese policies Senate leader Thune: I am open to considering an export ban on diesel Oil...
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil trades just above $100.00, up about 3% on the day. It is on track for a third straight weekly gain.
Commerzbank's Volkmar Baur notes that Chinese growth remains export-led as domestic demand stays soft, with investment and retail sales under pressure and car sales slumping.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) gained to 99.60 mark on Tuesday, and the bond market drove the move.
UOB's Quek Ser Leang notes USD/SGD extended gains toward 1.2725 as the US Dollar strengthened broadly and Singapore Dollar (SGD) Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) stayed around 1.65% above its mid-point.
The Euro (EUR) extends its losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, sliding below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1555, opening the door to further downside, with sellers setting their sights on Monday's low of 1.1523.
USD/JPY trades near 155.20 on Tuesday, rising for a second straight day and pulling away from the roughly seven-month low it set last week. A firmer US Dollar (USD) is doing the work, helped by a sharp jump in Oil that has pushed US Treasury yields higher.
Standard Chartered economists Hunter Chan and Shuang Ding assess China's July-August data and conclude that domestic demand weakened while production held up.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tumbles against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday for the second straight day this week, down 0.37% as risk appetite sours, with AI company CEOs expressing concerns about the rapid pace of evolution and as high energy prices push markets to expect further tightening by the
The US Dollar Index (DXY) holds firm near a two-week high on Tuesday as traders prepare for the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy decision on Wednesday. At the time of writing, the index trades around 99.66, up 0.17% on the day.
Gold (XAU/USD) price holds firm on Tuesday, capped on the upside by solid resistance at the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,328, while broad US Dollar strength and elevated US bond yields weighed on the non-yielding metal.
Commerzbank's FX analysts Charlie Lay and Moses Lim note that the Korean Won has rallied nearly 15% against the Dollar since late June, driven less by the current account surplus and more by structural shifts in flows.
USD/CAD extends its advance for a fifth consecutive day on Tuesday, hovering near a two-week high as the US Dollar (USD) stays firmly supported ahead of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday.
The Canadain dollar is down for the fifth consecutive day as USD rises across the board on an expected Fed rate hike. Below the surface, Prime Minister Mark Carney is trying to lay the groundwork for an investment boom. He's hosting an investment summit in Canada this week and that's included a series of announcements...
Headlines: USD/INR erases all RBI intervention gains as surging oil prices weigh on the Indian Rupee Oil remains supported as supply risks intensify and diplomatic progress stalls Bill Lipschutz's scale trading strategy: Why smart traders don't go all in at once Managing Currency Exposure With OANDA's Forex Trading...
Standard Chartered's Chong Hoon Park and Nicholas Chia expect the Bank of Japan to hike its policy rate by 25bps to 1.25% at the 17-18 September meeting.
ING economist James Smith argues that recent United Kingdom (UK) jobs data underline a cooler labour market and weaker wage dynamics, reducing the risk of another inflation surge.
The Euro (EUR) remains on the defensive against the US Dollar (USD) as investors brace for the first interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) after three years.
UOB's Quek Ser Leang highlights renewed EUR/USD weakness after a sharper-than-expected drop below 1.1565 to 1.1522. He sees scope for a further test of 1.1520 intraday, with 1.1490 as the next key support over the coming weeks.
Rabobank's Senior Energy Strategists Joe DeLaura and Florence Schmit revise their Brent outlook higher as Middle East disruptions tighten supply routes.
Germany's ZEW Survey Economic Sentiment rose slightly to 34.7 in September from 34.2 in August, although the reading falls short of market expectations of 37.
OCBC strategist Christopher Wong notes the US Dollar Index (DXY) around 99.5, supported by higher Oil, elevated UST yields and softer risk sentiment. He highlights tentative bullish daily momentum and two-way risks, with resistance near 99.80 - 100.30 and support around 99.30 - 98.00.
Germany September ZEW survey current conditions -47.1 vs -52.1 expected Prior -61.1 Germany September ZEW survey economic sentiment 34.7 vs 40.0 expected Prior 34.2 The breakdownThe uptick in the current conditions index is encouraging, as it is a beat on estimates. However, the economic sentiment indicator only...
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - the benchmark US Crude Oil price - catches fresh bids following the previous day's two-way price swings and sticks to its strong intraday gains through the first half of the European session on Tuesday.
MUFG's Lee Hardman says the Pound is holding up better than expected despite the worsening energy price shock.
AUD/JPY gains ground for the second consecutive day, trading around 110.40 during European hours on Tuesday. The currency cross appreciates as the Japanese Yen (JPY) faces headwinds from rising global oil prices, which significantly inflate import costs for Japan's energy-dependent economy.
ING's Frantisek Taborsky explains that a surge in energy prices, a jump in US 10-year yields to 5% and a stronger Dollar have hit CEE currencies and pushed local rates higher.
The key details: July ILO unemployment rate 4.9% vs 5.0% expected Prior 4.9% July employment change 67k vs 67k expected Prior 83k July average weekly earnings +3.9% vs +3.9% 3m/y expected Prior +4.1%; revised to +4.2% July average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +3.5% vs +3.5% 3m/y expected Prior +3.5% August payrolls...
If there's one thing to note from the way we are starting off the week, it is that the bond market isn't waiting around for the Fed. 10-year Treasury yields have now pushed up to 5.02%, continuing what has been a relentless climb in recent weeks on the back of stubborn inflation, higher oil prices, and the prospect of...
The data reinforces a now familiar pattern in China's recovery: export-facing industry holding up while domestic demand and investment lag, a mix that tends to support producer-heavy sectors and China-exposed exporters more than domestically focused consumer names. The investment miss, alongside retail sales...
I'll be back with details and implications soon. Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (YoY) (Aug) -7.2% expected -7.2%, prior -6.7% Retail Sales (YoY) (Aug) 0.4% expected 0.8%, prior 0.6% Industrial Production (YoY) (Aug) 5.2% expected 4.8%, prior 4.5% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
The modest easing in the annual rate of decline, from a 3.2% drop in July to 3.0% in August, is unlikely to shift the broader narrative that China's property correction remains a persistent drag on domestic demand rather than a market approaching stabilisation. With real estate historically representing a large share...
AI and chip stocks tumble as weekend warnings challenge the sector's growth assumptions Trump: AI will be the greatest economic development engine in history US seeks "step-by-step" agreement with Iran citing Pakistani sources Trump: Military conflict with Iran "will not be long" Zelensky says Trump's deal to stop...
The USD/CHF extends its gains for the seventh straight trading session, up a minimal 0.05% after registering a one-month high of 0.8195, shy of cracking the 0.8200, but ultimately the pair is poised to end the session at around 0.8169.
China's National Bureau of Statistics is due to release August industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment data at 0200 GMT on Tuesday, September 15, offering the next read on whether Beijing's economy is stabilising or losing further ground. Economists polled ahead of the release expect industrial...
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades near $98.00, about 1.4% higher on the day. It was more than 4% higher shortly after 12:30 GMT and had given nearly all of that back by 19:00.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) held firm at the start of the week, staying above the 99.00 mark and trading near 99.40, still short of the 100.00 threshold.
Silver (XAG/USD) price resumes its downtrend on Monday, keeping the head-and-shoulders pattern alive as the white metal struggles to clear the neckline in the $64.10-$64.20 range, increasing the chances of further losses. The XAG/USD pair trades at $63.60, down over 1.50%.
Gold (XAU/USD) begins the week on the wrong foot, down some 0.85% on Monday after reaching a one-month low of $4,253, in a week that will feature the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy decision. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,310.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the US Dollar (USD) is firm at the start of FOMC week as swaps now price an 85% chance of tightening on Wednesday.
Brown Brothers Harriman's (BBH) Elias Haddad expects the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to deliver a 25 bps hike to 3.75%-4.00%, its first move since July 2023, justified by above-target inflation and a solid labor market.
USD/CAD edges higher on Monday as Fed rate hike expectations lift the US Dollar (USD) to a nearly two-week high, while rising Oil prices provide little support to the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD).
US President Donald Trump posted the following comments on artificial intelligence: Says AI and data centers will be "the Greatest Economic Development Engine in History - Bigger than Oil, Gold, Diamonds, or even the Internet" Says the development of AI "will not be stopped" Says he is unhappy that Google reportedly...
There has been a steady improvement in the mood in risk markets today and stocks are now at sessions highs, though still solidly negative. The S&P 500 is down 17 points after falling by as many as 66 points. The change in mood comes as oil gives back some gains and 10-year Treasury yields retreat from 5.00%. The news...
EUR/GBP slides on Monday, trading around 0.8560 as the Euro (EUR) side of the cross is underpinned by a European Central Bank (ECB) that remains hawkish. The pair hit a two-week low of 0.8554 earlier in the day before the Pound (GBP) gained some ground.
Headline news is helping to push oil back down. Below is some of those headlines: The US is seeking a "step-by-step" agreement with Iran, according to ILNA, citing Pakistani sources. Washington's efforts could provide a path toward negotiations with Tehran without abandoning military and economic pressure. US...
The British Pound (GBP/USD) tested five-week lows of 1.3464 and trimmed some of its earlier losses on Monday, but it remains in the red, down 0.23% amid a light economic docket in the US and the UK as both countries' central banks get ready to release their monetary policy decisions on Wednesday and
EUR/CAD declines to around 1.6060 on Monday at the time of writing, down 0.17% on the day. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) benefits from the sharp rise in Oil prices, while the latest Canadian inflation data do little to alter the near-term monetary policy outlook.
I'm starting to get the sense that Trump saw some bad polls this morning. I hope everyone realizes that price increases throughout America were caused by Sleepy Joe Biden and the Biden Administration, not by "TRUMP." Even Oil was higher under Biden than it is right now, and we prevented Iran from having a Nuclear...
The Dollar Index trades near 99.50, up 0.4% on the day, and it made the whole of that gain while America was asleep. A 5% Treasury yield sounds like the best thing that could happen to the Dollar, and New York has spent the morning selling it.
Trump won't be swayed by talk of AI doom. He writes: The only control or "guardrails" that AI needs is a STRONG AND SMART (High IQ!) PRESIDENT, and the U.S.A. has that, in spades! The Trump Administration has stopped AI "people" from doing bad, or potentially bad, "things," like Dario (Anthropic!), who is now...
The big question in energy markets this week is how long it will take to restore flows through the Saudi east-west pipeline. For background, this was the pipeline that was put into use at the start of the war and it directs oil across the country and to the Red Sea. However on Thursday morning, attacks -- purportedly...
Headlines: Fed rate hike bets surge as Wall Street analysts converge on September move Oil prices climb again as Hormuz disruption and Saudi pipeline attack deepen inflation fears Gold tests the major $4,300 support again, as rate hike bets and rising oil threaten a breakdown Gold price risks deeper drop on break...
Rate hikes by year-end BoE: 51 bps (57% probability of no change at the next meeting) 2027: 111 bps Fed: 50 bps (87% probability of rate hike at the next meeting) 2027: 91 bps BoJ: 43 bps (76% probability of rate hike at the next meeting) 2027: 111 bps RBA: 38 bps (85% probability of rate hike at the next meeting)...
India's retail inflation accelerated further in August, with headline CPI inflation rising to 4.82% y/y, up from 4.45% in July. Food inflation was even stronger, with the Consumer Food Price Index rising 5.95% from a year earlier. Rural inflation stood at 5.23%, while urban inflation was 4.31%. The August reading puts...
US Dollar (USD) appreciates for the fourth consecutive day against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) on Monday, as rising bets of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike on Wednesday offset the traditional positive impact of higher Oil prices on the Canadian Dollar.
UOB's Quek Ser Leang notes GBP/USD rebounded from 1.3479 to close at 1.3535 after an overdone drop, with intraday price action expected to consolidate between 1.3485 and 1.3540.
OCBC strategist Christopher Wong notes that JPY has extended gains, pushing USD/JPY near recent lows despite firmer Fed hike pricing and higher US front-end yields. Markets are positioned for a 25bp Bank of Japan (BoJ) hike, with speculative positioning now net long JPY.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, extends its opening gains in the European trading session on Monday, trading almost 3% higher slightly above $99.50.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) keeps trading lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, as investors brace for a quarter-point interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) later in the week, and Oil prices consolidate above $100.00.
Danske Bank's Danske Research Team highlights a sharp move higher in Brent as escalating Middle East tensions threaten key supply routes. The report notes Brent's jump above USD 107/bbl and warns that closure of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline could endanger up to 4% of global Oil supply.
EUR/JPY edges higher on Monday and trades around 178.40 at the time of writing, up 0.12% on the day. The pair remains supported despite growing expectations of further monetary tightening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), while the European Central Bank (ECB) policy outlook remains uncertain.
USD/JPY rebounds after posting modest losses the previous day, trading around 154.60 during European hours on Monday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) gains amid rising oil prices and growing Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets.
ING's Francesco Pesole highlights that EUR/USD has broken below 1.1600, with the bank maintaining a downside bias consistent with its constructive Dollar view.
The GBP/USD pair comes under heavy selling at the start of a new week and drops to the lower end of its monthly range, near the 1.3480 region during the first half of the European session.
Gold (XAU/USD) sticks to intraday losses through the first half of the European session, though it holds above the $4,300 mark and Friday's swing low. The downside seems cushioned as traders keenly await this week's key central bank events before placing fresh directional bets on the commodity.
The heads of US frontier AI labs are terrified of China Anthropic, OpenAI and Google held talks on AI safety body, report says Ripple's RLUSD supply hits fresh all-time high as XRP price lags behind PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7698 (vs. estimate at 6.7083) CICC warns $100 oil could bring demand...
The report adds substance behind the wave of public safety commentary from AI industry leaders that surfaced over the weekend, suggesting the coordination is more advanced than a single essay or public statement implied. For markets, a credible move toward shared testing and auditing standards could be read two ways....
This is a longer horizon structural story rather than an immediate market mover, but it speaks to the ongoing repricing of Canada's trade relationships since the tariff dispute with Washington escalated. A deeper EU tie-up, if it advances, would represent a meaningful diversification of Canadian trade exposure away...
The data adds to a modest but building case that New Zealand's services sector is stabilising, which matters for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's read on domestic demand heading into upcoming policy decisions. A third consecutive month of expansion, with the three month moving average also climbing, gives some...
The AUD/USD ended the day in the green but finished the week 0.45% lower amid growing bets that the Fed will raise rates next week, boosting the US Dollar. Nevertheless, on Friday, the pair traded at 0.7171, up a decent 0.38%.
United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/SGD has rebounded strongly, with short-term momentum pointing higher but key resistance at 1.2705 expected to limit gains.
US stocks rebound sharply, but major indices still close lower for the week Bitcoin sellers regain the short-term advantage ahead of weekend trading Why the Saudi Arabian pipeline strike is such a big deal JPMorgan now sees the Fed hiking in September and December US August Federal budget deficit $167 billion vs $404...
The USDCHF climbs over 0.40% on Friday after US consumer inflation data, coupled with Thursday's PPI, pushed investors to price in a Fed interest rate hike at next week's meeting. The pair trades at 0.8165 after rebounding from daily lows of 0.8124.
DBS Group Research expects Taiwan's central bank to keep its policy rate unchanged on September 17, before raising it to 2.125% in December.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades near $97.00, about 3.4% lower and on track for its first down session in five.
United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann reports that USD/CNH has bounced sharply to 6.7153, with intraday gains likely capped near 6.7200.
Silver price registers gains of over 1%, yet it is trading below the 'head and shoulders' neckline, an indication that the overall trend in the short-term may be tilted to the downside. The XAG/USD trades at $64.24, after bouncing off daily lows of $62.94.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) closes the week near the 99.00 zone, little changed on the day and holding the ground it clawed back after a brief wobble on Thursday's US inflation release.
ING analysts Chris Turner and Padhraic Garvey argue the Bank of Japan is likely to hike 25bp to 1.25% and then proceed cautiously.
US Treasury yields fall during the North American session on Friday following the release of US inflation data, but are poised to finish the week higher. The US 10-year Treasury yield is down one basis point to 4.951% but has gained over 16 basis points, or 3.49%, this week.
MUFG's Michael Wan notes that Asia FX and rates have stayed relatively stable despite sharply higher US Treasury yields, but he warns this resilience may not last in the near term.
USD/JPY is trading around 153.70 on Friday, down for the day after briefly spiking above 154.50 following the US inflation release.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) reverses earlier gains on Friday as a pullback in longer-dated US Treasury yields outweighs support from the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates next week.
Gold (XAU/USD) price bounces off daily lows beneath $4,300 on Friday and reclaims the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $4,335 following the release of US inflation data, which fueled speculation that a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike next week is almost certain.
EUR/GBP is easing on Friday and slipping toward the 0.8580 area. The cross had pushed to the top of its recent range in the high 0.8590s before running out of steam.
Silver (XAG/USD) rebounds sharply on Friday, trading around $64.30 at the time of writing, up 1.13% on the day. The white metal recovers after briefly falling to a three-week low of $62.94 in the immediate reaction to the latest United States (US) inflation figures.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average trades just beneath 52,600, roughly 510 points higher, after four sessions of losses. The inflation print was worth about 100 points at 12:30 GMT, and the rest of the advance arrived in the afternoon once the long end of the Treasury curve turned.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil comes under heavy selling pressure on Friday as traders lock in profits following a sharp rally that pushed the US benchmark to its highest level since May 21. At the time of writing, WTI trades around $96.50, down roughly 4% on the day.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) climbs slightly against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, up 0.10%, as the latest US consumer inflation report came in line with forecasts, and although money markets have increased the odds of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike next week, traders faded the initial reaction.
Today is an anniversary. Anniversaries are often days of celebration. They are also days of remembrance. Today is not a day to celebrate. It is a day to pause and remember - to remember all those who "slipped the surly bonds of Earth" and touched the face of God. I personally knew three people who died that day....
I'm increasingly conviced that the trade in AI is no longer the model makers or the vendors, but at the user level. This is the RAMP trade that I've been writing about since last year (real assets, margin potential). Today we get some insight into how it will unfold and the potential. At this point, you don't need to...
Headlines: Gold falls back into the major $4300 support ahead of US CPI, as surging oil prices increase rate hike bets Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis have completed the takeover of Bab el-Mandeb Strait Bitcoin trades at a major support ahead of the US CPI report. What to watch next? What is the distribution of forecasts...
Gold (XAU/USD) rebounds on Friday, reversing most of the previous day's losses as a pullback in the US Dollar, US Treasury yields and Oil prices supports the precious metal.
ING analysts David Havrlant and Frantisek Taborsky say the Czech market is being driven mainly by global factors and high energy prices, but EUR/CZK still reacts to Czech National Bank (CNB) meetings and guidance.
Gold (XAU/USD) nudges higher on Friday, as the US Dollar's (USD) recovery stalls ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, due later in the day.
Michael Pfister at Commerzbank notes the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a second rate hike this year and raised its inflation projections above 2%, which their economists see as pointing to another hike in December.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) underperforms its major currency peers on Friday. The North American currency faces selling pressure as Oil prices have retreated sharply after posting a fresh four-month high.
Danske Research Team explains that Sweden's July Gross Domestic Product (GDP) indicator was weak, but underlying domestic activity appears stronger, with solid services and consumption data.
MUFG's Lee Hardman highlights that the stronger United States (US) Producer Price Index (PPI) data has reinforced expectations for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike, with around 18 bps now priced for next week's FOMC meeting.
The GBP/USD pair struggles to capitalize on its modest intraday gains and trades near the 1.3500 psychological mark during the first half of the European session on Friday.
United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann flag a sudden AUD/USD selloff to 0.7156, with intraday momentum pointing to further losses toward 0.7140, though 0.7120 is seen as strong support for now.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Friday. The report is expected to show a small decline in annual core inflation.
after capturing strategic points in the Red Sea, according to the AFP. Bab el-Mandeb connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and provides a key maritime route between the Indian Ocean, the Suez Canal and Europe. Around 10% of global trade passes through this waterway. That leaves global energy flows facing pressure...
The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market's reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be...
Oil prices have surged above $100 a barrel this week as the market started to price in a prolonged disruption to energy flows after Trump's midterm comments . Brent climbed as high as around $109 yesterday, while WTI moved above $104, with both benchmarks on track for their strongest weekly gains in months. Iran's...
The Indian Rupee (INR) extends its downward spiral against the US Dollar (USD) for the fourth trading day on Friday, with the USD/INR pair rising to near 95.80.
BOJ hike next week is a given, the real question is pace and terminal rate Houthis claim total control of Bab el-Mandeb, but wires haven't confirmed it ANZ sees ECB hiking again in December, lifting deposit rate to 2.75% Preview: August CPI due Friday to decide odds of first Fed hike since 2023 Coming up: What Lagarde...
August's corporate goods price index reinforces what markets had already priced in, that the Bank of Japan is close to certain to raise rates to 1.25% at next week's meeting, so the immediate surprise value for JPY crosses is limited. The more interesting detail is the import price index, up 24.8% year on year, which...
ADDED: Follow up post with more here Japan wholesale inflation stays hot in August, cements case for BOJ hike This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
The August reading confirms New Zealand's manufacturing sector is still growing, but the pace is clearly moderating, a signal that may feed into the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's broader read on domestic activity alongside employment and price data. The flat employment sub-index, sitting right at the 50.0 breakeven...
The US Treasury bought $5.187 billion in 10-20 year notes US treasury sells $22 billion of 30 year bonds at a high yield of 5.308% EIA weekly US crude oil inventories -391K vs -1554K expected US wholesale inventories +1.3% in line with expectations US August existing home sales 3.98m vs 3.98m expected ECB's Lagarde:...
Silver (XAG/USD) price erases Wednesday's gains and forms a bearish head-and-shoulders chart pattern on Thursday after the white metal tanks and breaks a support trendline around $64.00-$64.15, exacerbating the decline below $63.50. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $63.72, down over 5.30%.
UOB's Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann keep a negative stance on USD/CNH around 6.7060, though recent price action has been confined to 6.7033 - 6.7074. They see current moves as range trading between 6.7030 and 6.7100 intraday.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) fails to clear a confluence of key Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) and dives below 0.5800 on Thursday, printing a near two-month low of 0.5797. At the time of writing, NZD/USD is down 0.65% and poised to test lower levels if it closes below 0.5800.
Commerzbank notes USD/MYR has risen to 4.07, marking a fourth consecutive session of Ringgit weakness, weighed by foreign portfolio outflows from Malaysian equities.
The next Treasury buyback is Sept 24. I wouldn't read too much into this result because it's the first one in the series so the market might be feeling it out. That said, the market was disappointed this week at only $6 billion and $5.187 billion is even lower than that. US 10-year yields hit the highs of the day...
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil rallies nearly 5% on Thursday, climbing to its highest level since May 21 as escalating tensions in the Middle East raise fears of further disruption to already tight supplies. At the time of writing, WTI trades around $99 and is up about 10.50% so far this week.
According to Reuters sources, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to further tighten monetary policy in the months ahead and could raise rates in October.
Gold price retraces by about 0.90% on Thursday as traders price in a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) following the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for August.
EUR/JPY rises above the 179.00 mark on Thursday in the aftermath of the European Central Bank (ECB) raising its deposit rate by a quarter point to 2.50%, its second hike since the US-Iran war broke out.
The European Central Bank (ECB) increased the Deposit Facility Rate to 2.50%, the Refinancing Rate to 2.65% and the Marginal Lending Facility to 2.90%, effective from September 16.
The U.S. Treasury has auctioned off $22 million and 30 year bonds at a high yield of 5.308% WI level at the time of the auction 5.335% Tail -2.7 basis points versus 013 basis points average Bid to cover 2.61X versus average of 2.38X DIrects (domestic buyers) 18.3% versus 22.1% average Indirects (international buyers)...
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret highlight that USD/JPY is edging higher as the Japanese Yen trades defensively after its sharp late-August rally. The Bank of Japan's messaging is described as unequivocally hawkish ahead of a widely anticipated 25 bps hike on September 18.
USD/CAD pares earlier gains on Thursday as the US Dollar (USD) loses momentum after staging a modest recovery, despite US Producer Price Index (PPI) data showing that producer inflation picked up again in August. At the same time, higher Oil prices offer support to the Canadian Dollar (CAD).
TD Securities analysts Ryan McKay and Bart Melek report that Copper's recent rally has been driven mainly by supply-side factors linked to tariff-induced inventory depletion.
U.S. wholesale inventories increased strongly in July, while sales rebounded following June's decline. Inventories grew faster than sales during the month, pushing the inventories-to-sales ratio modestly higher. Wholesale inventories July inventories: $958.9 billion Month over month: +1.3% versus 1.3% expected Year...
Headlines: Oil prices above $100 continue to lift bond yields as inflation fears grow European stocks edge higher as investors brace for ECB decision Stock movers today: Meta leads AI optimism while ServiceTitan and Navan show the cost of missing expectations Oracle earnings preview: AI spending, cloud growth and a...
The rise in long-term bond yields is being blamed on a growing list of factors, but there is a much simpler explanation sitting in plain sight: oil prices are the main driver of the rise in long-term yields, and the Iran war is the reason oil is rising. Brent crude has pushed back above $100 a barrel as the US-Iran...
ING's Frantisek Taborsky notes that the Czech National Bank (CNB) blackout period has started, with Deputy Governor Zamrazilova signalling a preference to keep rates unchanged at next week's meeting.
MUFG's Lee Hardman notes that the US Dollar has softened over summer as the US Treasury's announcement to at least double long-term bond buybacks undermined confidence while inflation risks rise.
Deutsche Bank's Henry Allen and colleagues note Brent Oil has broken above $100 per barrel for the first time since July as US-Iran strikes escalate and concerns grow over the Strait of Hormuz reopening.
Societe Generale's Kenneth Broux expects a second 25bp ECB depo rate hike, stressing that wage dynamics and updated staff forecasts will determine how far tightening goes.
GBP/USD remains stronger for the fourth successive day, trading around 1.3550 during the European hours on Thursday. The pair is maintaining a modest bullish bias as it holds above both the nine- and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).
The USD/JPY pair seesaws between tepid gains and minor losses through the first half of the European session on Thursday, consolidating its recent heavy losses to a nearly seven-month low, touched earlier this week.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) has given back previous daily gains against the US Dollar (USD) in a calm trading session on Thursday, as the USD/CHF pair returned above 0.8100, although it remains halfway through the weekly trading range.
The Euro (EUR) trades in a tight range at around 1.1640 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Thursday. The major currency pair consolidates as investors await the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy decision, which will be announced at 12:15 GMT.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise the interest rate on the Main Refinancing Operations and the Deposit Facility by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.65% and 2.50%, respectively. The ECB will announce the decision on Thursday at 12:15 GMT.
Germany August final CPI +2.9% vs +2.9% y/y prelim Prior +2.8% Germany August final HICP +2.9% vs +2.9% y/y prelim Prior +2.8% Germany August final core CPI +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y prelim Prior +2.4% The breakdownThere are no changes to the preliminary data as headline annual inflation in Germany nudges up in August. That...
Just last week, I highlighted the tectonic shift taking place in the global bond market in arguing that markets may have to get used to an era of structurally higher yields. And yesterday's announcement from the US Treasury offers another interesting test of that argument. The Treasury said that it will buy back as...
The Indian Rupee (INR) extends its losing run against the US Dollar (USD) for the third trading day on Thursday. The USD/INR pair posts a fresh 10-day high at 95.31 as the ongoing rally in oil prices continues to batter the Indian currency.
Earnings season is turning more defensive, but the weakness is not everywhere Bank of Korea links Kospi's wild swings to leverage both at home and abroad Korea Exchange to launch real time trading through to 8pm from September 14 Trump ties $5,000 payment promise to a full Republican midterm sweep Weak yen, oil costs...
A pledge of this scale, if it were ever legislated, would represent a meaningful debt expansion at a moment when concerns about the deficit and Treasury issuance are already weighing on bond markets. For now, the promise is conditional on a Republican sweep in November and carries no funding mechanism or legislative...
US stocks close lower for the third consecutive day as oil and yields rise USD/JPY and the "I am the House now" trade Gold Technicals: Buyers and sellers battle between key support and resistance as the market awaits the next shove Trump says oil prices won't come down until after the midterms US sells 10-year notes...
The economic calendar for Asia today does not show impactful data releases. We will, of course, have ongoing war developments to deal with, along with specualtion ahead of US inflation reports due Thursday (PPI) and Friday (CPI - what Goldman Sachs expect ('benign') here ). This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan...
The Mexican Peso clings to gains against the US Dollar on Wednesday following the presentation of Mexico's government fiscal package in Congress, while traders await the release of US inflation data. The USD/MXN trades at 16.89, down 0.09% near yearly lows.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) settled just above $94.00, up better than 2% and at its best level since May 22.
Commerzbank highlights that Taiwan's August CPI undershot expectations due to favourable food base effects, but core inflation remains above the CBC's forecast. The bank sees scope for a modest rate hike as growth stays robust and inflation risks persist.
Societe Generale's Dev Ashish reports that the Central Bank of Chile kept the monetary policy rate at 4.50% in September, as weak domestic growth offsets rising external inflation risks. The bank highlights disappointing activity, deteriorating labour markets and anchored inflation expectations.
Silver (XAG/USD) price makes a U-turn on Wednesday and rises over 3.40% as the Greenback weakens, putting the confirmation of a 'head-and-shoulders' chart pattern on hold, which has formed since mid-August. The XAG/USD pair trades at $68.00 after rebounding off $65.31.
EUR/USD struggles to extend its earlier gains on Wednesday as the US Treasury's bond-buyback announcement sparks a brief bout of volatility, pushing Treasury yields higher and helping the US Dollar (USD) trim its losses.
The US Dollar (USD) navigated a bearish range on Wednesday, gathering some pace soon after the US Treasury announced a buyback of up to $6 billion in 10- to 20-year T-bonds.
Gold (XAU/USD) rises over 1% on Wednesday, even as the US Dollar (USD) trims some of its earlier losses, after the US Treasury Department announced a bond buyback for the September 10 auction of 10- and 20-year instruments.
ING economists Carsten Brzeski and Franziska Biehl argue that while German inflation is set to rise above 3% and stay elevated into year-end, a repeat of 2022's double-digit surge is unlikely.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average trades roughly 440 points lower and under 52,400, and its session high sits within two points of the opening print.
AUD/USD stabilizes around 0.7220 at the time of writing on Wednesday, after hitting a fresh four-month high at 0.7237 earlier in the day. The Australian Dollar (AUD) loses some momentum as the US Dollar (USD) rebounds, supported by rising US Treasury yields.
USD/JPY remains on the back foot on Wednesday but lacks follow-through selling as the US Dollar (USD) recovers following the Treasury's announcement of a larger bond buyback. The pair trades around 153.50 after briefly falling below 153.00, its lowest level since February.
Headlines: Oil prices close in on $100 as US-Iran tensions persist, but the real risk comes after it gets there European stocks slide as $100 oil revives inflation fears ahead of ECB The Nasdaq consolidates at key resistance as traders await the US CPI report AI infrastructure stocks surged while software fell. Does...
AUD/JPY declines 0.27% on Wednesday and trades around 110.80 at the time of writing.
Gold (XAU/USD) trims losses on Wednesday, with price action returning to the $4,400 area during the European morning session, after bouncing from $4,345 lows on Tuesday.
Societe Generale's Kenneth Broux and colleagues expect the NBP to keep rates unchanged at 3.75%, with Governor Glapiński emphasising flexibility and data dependence.
USD/CAD extends its losses for the third consecutive day, trading around 1.3780 during the European hours on Wednesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the pair is falling within the descending channel pattern, signalling a persistent bearish bias.
ING's commodities team notes Copper has surged to fresh records on the LME, with three‑month futures nearing $14,800/t, as traders position for potential US tariffs on refined Copper imports.
The USD/CHF pair reverses modest intraday losses and climbs to the top end of its daily range during the first half of the European session on Wednesday.
EUR/CAD gains ground after two days of losses, trading around 1.6030 during the European hours on Wednesday.
DBS Group Research economist Eugene Leow argues that upcoming US CPI data will be crucial for the FOMC's September decision on policy.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) resumed its uptrend on Wednesday, with the US Dollar (USD) losing ground against its main peers despite the dismal market mood, while the rebound in Chinese inflation eased concerns about domestic demand.
The Euro (EUR) is down 0.27% to near 178.50 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) during the European trading session on Wednesday, closer to its almost 10-month low of 177.85 posted the previous day.
Dow Jones futures edge lower by 0.04% to trade near 52,800 during European hours on Wednesday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures gain by 0.07% to trade near 7,690, while Nasdaq 100 futures advance 0.22% to trade around 29,600.
ING's Chris Turner describes EUR/USD near 1.1600 as mid-range since April, noting Euro terms-of-trade deterioration should weigh more on the pair. ING expects a dovish ECB hike that fails to validate additional tightening priced by markets.
Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley says speculation over a structural shift in Japanese Yen (JPY) valuation is challenging traditional carry trade assumptions and Japanese investors' appetite for foreign assets.
TD Securities' Molly Brooks analyzes how US rates markets are pricing the September Federal Reserve meeting, highlighting unusually high uncertainty around a potential hold or 25bp hike.
Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, September 9:
The Indian Rupee (INR) extends its decline against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday after a sharp correction the previous day. The USD/INR pair jumps marginally above 95.00 as surging energy prices have battered the Indian currency significantly.
China inflation rebounds on energy costs, but the demand story hasn't changed - recap KOSPI tops 7,000 on AI optimism even as Middle East risk weighs Iran claims strikes on US destroyers, tankers crossing Hormuz Central bank buying keeps UBS bullish on gold's long game Gold's Iran-war paradox: why bullion keeps...
Gold (XAU/USD) maintains its bid tone above the $4,400 mark through the first half of the European session on Wednesday and, for now, seems to have snapped a three-day losing streak.
Both readings landing in line with or above forecast removes the immediate deflation-scare risk that was in play after July's shortfall, but the composition of the beat matters more than the headline. NBS attributing the CPI rebound to rising energy prices rather than a broad pickup in consumption keeps the underlying...
China August 2026 inflation data. CPI YY 0.8%, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) cite rising energy prices expected 0.8%, prior 0.5% CPI MM 0.4% expected 0.3%, prior -0.1% PPI YY 3.8% expected 3.7%, prior 3.5% PPI MM +0.4% I'll have more to come on this separately, details and implications for markets. ADDED: China...
The stronger Reuters Tankan reading adds to the case for continued Bank of Japan policy normalisation, with manufacturer sentiment now at its best level since December 2021 and both current and forward-looking indexes pointing higher. A steady, broad-based improvement rather than a single-sector spike gives the BOJ...
A rebound in headline CPI toward consensus would ease immediate deflation concerns without altering the broader policy picture, given the move is expected to be driven by a food price base effect rather than a genuine demand recovery. A miss, echoing July's shortfall against forecasts, would revive questions about the...
Intel shares are soaring by 10% in trading today. Several explosions heard on Kharg Island - report Oil gives back gains as the breakout fails to sustain U.S. Treasury sells $58 billion of 3 or notes at a high yield of 4.474% Flights reportedly suspended at Jeddah airport in Saudi Arabia NY Fed survey: Expectations...
Inflation data from China is due today. I'll get a preview of this posted separately. It was an active day of news from China yesterday: China exports match forecast in August, imports fall short as domestic demand stays soft China's Rio Tinto ore purchasing halt appears set to take effect. AUD down. This article was...
OCBC's Christopher Wong reports USD/CNH briefly fell to its lowest level since February 2023 before rebounding after the PBoC set a higher-than-expected daily fix.
UOB's Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note GBP/USD edged higher to around 1.3545, with no significant build-up in momentum but a modest upside tilt toward 1.3565 in the near term.
TD Securities economists Oscar Munoz, Eli Nir, Gennadiy Goldberg and Molly Brooks expect August Core CPI to rise 0.19% m/m, with services driving gains and core goods offsetting. They project Core CPI at 2.3% y/y and Headline CPI steady at 3.4% y/y.
The Mexican Peso remains unchanged against the US Dollar on Tuesday as market participants await the release of Mexico's Fiscal package, which will be delivered to the Mexican Congress for approval. At the time of writing, the USD/MXN trades at 16.91 flatlined.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note that the Japanese Yen (JPY) is modestly firmer, with USD/JPY extending losses through prior intervention lows near 155, a move seen as technically significant and potentially pointing to further Yen gains.
There is a Mehr News report that says: According to Mehr correspondent based on Kharg Island, the sound of several explosions was heard in parts of Kharg Island a few minutes ago The sound of explosions was heard from the area of the Kharg anchorage This is regime-affiliated news service so take it with a grain of...
UOB's Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann describe USD/CHF price action as largely directionless, with the pair closing near 0.8090 after trading in a narrow intraday range.
Deutsche Bank's UK Chart Of The Week, authored by Sanjay Raja, Shreyas Gopal and Maui Brennan, argues that UK fiscal consolidation since the 2024 election is primarily tax-driven and heavily backloaded.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret highlight a mixed US Dollar (USD) as markets weigh rising Oil prices, Japanese Yen (JPY) strength, and escalating US trade tensions.
Gold (XAU/USD) registers losses of over 0.44% on Tuesday amid a light economic docket in the US, due to a narrative dominated by the US-Iran conflict, higher Oil prices and traders bracing for the release of US inflation reports, with the PPI expected on Thursday, followed by the next day's CPI.
UOB's Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann analysts report that EUR/USD was little changed around 1.1620 on Monday, but note a slight pickup in upward momentum.
EUR/GBP rebounds on Tuesday after slipping to a six-day low earlier in the day. The recovery comes as the British Pound (GBP) weakens against most of its major peers following cautious remarks from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey.
Brown Brothers Harriman's (BBH) Elias Haddad highlights that USD/JPY briefly hit a seven‑month low near 152.89 before rebounding above 154.00, with support around 152.00 and resistance at 155.00.
The 1st coupon auction of the week was met with average demand. The US treasury sold $58 billion of 3 or notes at a high yield of 4.474%. The WI level at the time of the auction was just above that level at 4.75% creating a tale of -0.1 basis points. Bid to cover 2.72X was higher than the average of 2.62X Domestic...
There were reports that flights have been suspended at Jeddah Airport in Saudi Arabia . There is other reports of explosions in Jazan region of Saudi Arabia with explosions heard in Saudi Arabian oilfields. Alerts have also been activated in Saudi Arabia is Jazan region but reports are that the danger has passed....
The latest monthly survey from the NY Fed: One-year inflation expectations unchanged at 3.6% Three year inflation expectations to 3.2% vs 3.3% prior Five year inflation expectations unchanged at 3% Expectations for higher unemployment at worst since April 2020 Labor market expectations were 'mixed' overall Consumers...
Headlines: Bitcoin swings wildly as volatility in Fed expectations increases ahead of US CPI and FOMC decision Today's trade idea for oil traders Bitcoin has already won its battle, whereas Ethereum is only starting its own How oil prices influence inflation, inflation expectations and monetary policy The bond market...
ING strategist Francesco Pesole reports that Sterling gained modestly, helped by Chancellor John Healey's first major speech stressing fiscal discipline and keeping long-end gilt moves aligned with global bond selling.
MUFG's Teppei Ino notes that USD/JPY has fallen below the bank's 155 forecast floor, briefly trading under 154.50 and testing key Fibonacci retracement levels.
Michael Pfister at Commerzbank highlights that the Mexican Peso has strengthened, with USD/MXN back below 17, helped by a weaker Dollar and Mexico's strong performance among major currencies.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is down 0.13% to near 0.7210 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Tuesday. The Aussie pair comes under pressure as the US Dollar turns positive after a weak start.
Dow Jones futures fall by 0.92% to trade near 52,950 during European hours on Tuesday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures decline by 0.41% to trade below 7,700, while Nasdaq 100 futures lose 0.24% to trade below 29,500.
Societe Generale analysts note EUR/HUF is trading within a base formation but continues to struggle with the 200-day moving average around 371, seen as crucial resistance.
The GBP/JPY cross continues to lose ground for the second straight day - also marking the fourth day of a fall in the previous five - and drops to the 207.00 neighborhood, or a fresh year-to-date (YTD) low earlier this Tuesday.
The New Zealand Dollar extends losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, weighed by the risk-off mood amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and rising Oil prices.
Danske Research Team reports that softer-than-expected Swedish August inflation reduced market pricing for a September Riksbank rate hike. CPI, CPIF and CPIF-XE all undershot the bank's forecasts, with the downside surprise described as broad-based.
It's a new week but once again we are starting to see bond yields push higher again. And if this keeps up, it will be increasingly more difficult for broader markets to ignore. 10-year Treasury yields are touching 4.80% again, its highest levels since 2023, while 30-year yields in the US are starting to nudge back...
Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis launched a series of attacks against targets in southern Saudi Arabia, including energy facilities, military sites and other strategic locations, in a fresh escalation in regional tensions. The Saudi Energy Ministry said several energy facilities and installations in the kingdom's southern...
France July trade balance -€6.67 billion Prior -€5.85 billion; revised to -€5.75 billion The breakdownThe French trade widened in July as exports grew a little to €54.68 billion from €54.49 billion in June. Meanwhile, imports grew by more to €61.35 billion from €60.24 billion in the month before. This continues to...
Germany July trade balance €21.3 billion vs €15.9 billion expected Prior €15.4 billion Germany July exports -0.8% vs +0.1% m/m expected Prior +0.9% Germany July imports -5.7% vs -0.9% m/m expected Prior +4.4% The breakdownThe German trade surplus widened in July but it comes as both exports and imports falling on the...
The Indian Rupee (INR) retreats from its two-month high against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday.
Gold (XAU/USD) turns lower for the third straight day after a modest intraday uptick and slides below the $4,400 mark during the first half of the European session on Tuesday.
RBA's Hunter flags deliberate cooling in housing and broader growth China exports match forecast in August, imports fall short as domestic demand stays soft Kospi surges past 7,130 on chips, Nikkei ekes out modest gain China August trade balance shows imports below expectations China's Rio Tinto ore purchasing halt...
The headline numbers land close to consensus but the details matter more than the surface read. Exports hitting the forecast exactly, while accelerating from July, confirms the export-led growth pattern that has defined China's year so far, with high-tech goods, cars and semiconductors doing the heavy lifting. The...
China August: Trade balance $+119.09 bln (Reuters poll +$119.05Bn, prior +112.5bn) Dollar-denominated exports +25% y/y (Reuters poll +25.0% y/y, prior +23.9%) Dollar-denominated imports +28.2% y/y (Reuters poll +30.0% y/y, prior +27.5%) Background: Preview: China trade data due today, a beat could firm up AUD as a...
The story itself isn't new, Reuters first reported the directive on August 6, but its relevance sharpens now that September has arrived, the month CMRG specified as the effective start for the halted negotiations. Rio Tinto had been viewed as relatively insulated from CMRG's pressure campaign given Chinalco's stake in...
The news headline for the data is here ICYMI: Japan wages data, July 2026: Headline earnings +4.7% y/y (expected +3.9%, prior +4%) Since then we've had: Japan revised Q2 GDP: +1.4% y/y (preliminary 1.1%) I'll have more to come on that GDP data, but for now, wrappoing up the wages data. --- This is about as clean a...
Just the data points this post. I'll have more to come on this separately, details and implications, etc. ADDED: Japan GDP revision cements BOJ hike bets, yen and Nikkei in focus revised Q2 GDP: +1.4% y/y (preliminary 1.1%) and +0.4% q/q (prelim 0.3%) Background here: Preview: Japan revised Q2 GDP set to test BOJ...
Just the data on this post. July 2026. Average Cash Earnings YY 4.7% expected 3.9%, prior 4.0% Real wages + 2.4% y/y biggest increase since May 2021 seventh consecutive month of gains ADDED, details here: Japan wage growth strongest since 1997, cementing BOJ hike case Coming up soon: Preview: Japan revised Q2 GDP set...
GDP data from Japan and the trade data from China due today. I'll have more to come on both of these separately, previews, posted soon. The preliminary GDP from Japan was three weeks ago, quite a solid miss on this: Japan Q2 GDP growth undershoots forecasts, complicating BOJ's hike timeline This article was written by...
Commerzbank's Vietnam update highlights rising inflation and a narrowing trade deficit, with strong manufacturing-led imports and resilient exports. The bank notes elevated CPI and external deficits limit scope for aggressive easing, but robust activity persists.
The Mexican Peso loses some ground versus its North American counterpart, the US Dollar, as the USD/MXN rises over 0.25% at 16.93, even though the Greenback edges lower against a basket of six currencies, the so-called US Dollar Index.
BNY's Geoff Yu highlights that a stronger US Dollar (USD), higher Oil prices and rising global yields are pressuring Asian currencies and assets.
Crude oil technicals: Buyers test key resistance near $93.50 European major indices close mixed on the day Copper reaches a new record high on the LME Kickstart the North American FX session. The USDJPY is the big mover. The EUR and GBP are down modestly investingLive European session wrap: Oil climbs, yen surges amid...
Gold (XAU/USD) price dives over 0.40% on Monday following last Friday's US jobs report, which ignited speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might resume its tightening cycle if inflation reaccelerates late this week, while the labor market remains solid.
Crude Oil trades just under $91.00 after adding 1.6% on Monday. The grind has run roughly $10 from the $81.00 area in nine sessions, and not a barrel has stopped being produced in any of them.
ABN AMRO's Chief Economist Germany, Alexander Krüger, notes that German economic output is rising and the bank has raised its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast for 2026 to 1.3% and for 2027 to 1.1%.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, extends its decline on Monday as a sharp rally in the Japanese Yen (JPY) outweighs support from elevated geopolitical tensions and Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike expectations.
The US Dollar (USD) has started the week on the back foot, rapidly leaving behind Friday's uptick and refocusing on the downside.
EUR/USD holds above 1.1600, seven pips above where Monday opened. The pair has had three chances to move over four sessions and has taken none of them. Both central banks are priced to raise rates this month for the same energy shock, and a rate gap that is not moving does not move a currency.
TD Securities expects US output growth to move sideways in 2026 as the prior Oil shock lingers and the Iran conflict poses stagflationary risks. GDP is forecast to end 2026 at 2.1% Q4/Q4, with unemployment around 4.2%. The bank assigns a 25% probability to a US recession over the next year.
USD/JPY trades just above 154.00 after giving up close to two Yen on Monday, its weakest in six months. Nothing confirms an intervention, and Tokyo has no level left to defend at six-month Yen highs.
Headlines: Reminder: US markets are closed for Labor Day - what traders need to know USD/JPY tumbles lower, breaks below 155 for the first time since February Oil prices climb as US-Iran missile strikes keep Hormuz risks elevated Saudi Aramco facility attacked again; extent of the damage still being assessed Gold...
Saudi Aramco's oil facilities in Jizan were targeted on Monday in new wave of strikes, raising concerns over risks to Saudi oil supplies, according to the Financial Times. The extent of the damage is still being assessed. According to people familiar with the incident, the latest strike was similar in scale to the...
The Japanese Yen (JPY) resumes its uptrend against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, as the dust from a bright US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report settles, and Japanese officials hint at some steepening of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) tightening cycle ahead.
EUR/JPY falls 1.11% on Monday and trades around 179.45 at the time of writing. The sharp decline in the cross mainly reflects the strong appreciation of the Japanese Yen (JPY), supported by growing expectations of monetary policy tightening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
Brown Brothers Harriman's (BBH) Elias Haddad expects Chile, Poland, Peru and Türkiye to keep policy rates unchanged at upcoming meetings.
Commerzbank's Tatha Ghose notes that Czech August CPI matched expectations and CNB forecasts, keeping inflation within target and allowing rates to stay unchanged on 17 September.
RaboResearch notes that the ECB's Transmission Protection Instrument provides a backstop for Eurozone government bonds during stress not justified by fundamentals.
TD Securities economists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir expect August Consumer Price Index (CPI) to prove subdued enough to keep the Federal Reserve (Fed) on hold in September, with the CPI-to-PCE translation also pointing to contained underlying inflation.
United Kingdom (UK) Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey signaled in a scheduled speech during the European trading session on Monday that the government will continue focusing on maintaining fiscal discipline, in an attempt to contain higher borrowing costs.
Danske Bank's Danske Research Team notes Brent crude trading near USD 97 as renewed US-Iran strikes around the Strait of Hormuz raise concerns over prolonged disruptions to Middle East energy flows.
Dow Jones futures are down by 0.32% to trade near 53,270 during European hours on Monday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures steady near 7,720, while Nasdaq 100 futures advance by 0.31% to trade around 29,660. The US stock market will be closed Monday for the Labor Day holiday.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, turns upside down to near $89.50 during the European trading session on Monday.
Eurozone Q2 final GDP +0.6% vs +0.4% q/q second estimate Prior (Q1) 0.0% The breakdownThe positive revision is definitely a welcome boost for euro area policymakers. That especially after the more stagnant momentum seen in Q1. The annual growth of euro area GDP even increased to 1.2%, beating the second estimate of...
Eurozone September Sentix investor confidence index 5.1 vs 2.0 expected Prior 0.9 The breakdownThat's a solid beat on estimates as the index has now risen for five straight months and reached its highest level since February 2022. The rise was driven by both better current conditions and stronger expectations going...
Germany July industrial production -1.1% vs +0.1% m/m expected Prior +0.2%; revised to 0.0% The breakdownThat's a big miss on estimates as the weak July print was driven heavily by a sharp albeit partly temporary auto-sector slump. That being said, the broader industrial picture was also soft on the month. Of note,...
The Indian Rupee (INR) gains against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the week.
It'll be a quieter session up ahead in the US today as we will see key market closures in observance of the Labor Day weekend. Both the NYSE and Nasdaq are shut, so there will be no regular trading in US equities today. Besides that, the options market is also closed for the holiday with normal trading only resuming...
Dutch and French gold moves fuel debate over Trump-era confiscation risk Stocks - Chip rally lifts Nikkei and Kospi, but Japan's rally story looks shaky How rate hikes, and expectations of them, ripple through stocks and gold People's Bank of China sets yuan reference rate at 6.7795 (vs. estimate at 6.7086) Gold sold:...
Iran's latest warning puts oil supplies and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz back in focus for traders. Crude oil is the most direct market to watch, followed by gold and stock-index futures. Bitcoin and Ethereum can provide an earlier weekend indication of risk appetite, although their movements cannot reliably...
OCBC's Christopher Wong notes that Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) kept the OPR at 2.75% and struck a slightly firmer tone, with growth expected to stay resilient into 2027. The economist still projects an OPR normalisation to 3.00% in January 2027.
The Mexican Peso appreciates against the US Dollar, testing two-year highs near 16.85 as the USD/MXN sets aside a strong US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which was ignored by the Peso's bears.
Commerzbank highlights that Bank Negara Malaysia kept the OPR at 2.75% but shifted to a more hawkish bias, removing language that policy is "appropriate" and signalling vigilance on cost pressures.
The USD/CHF registers modest gains of over 0.30% as the Greenback is boosted by a solid US Nonfarm Payrolls report, pushing the pair above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) to reach a daily high of 0.8126. At the time of writing, trades at 0.8098.
OCBC's Christopher Wong notes that USD/IDR has pulled back as a softer Dollar and lower UST yields support the Indonesian Rupiah. He highlights Bank Indonesia Governor Destry Damayanti's emphasis on a stability-first approach, prioritizing Rupiah and macro stability while still supporting growth.
Trump: Witkoff and Kushner will bring proposal to Putin to end the war Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack is sounding decidedly hawkish on monetary policy Trump tells Fed: Lower the rate or I'll stop trading with countries with which we have a deficit Canada Employment change for August -41,7K vs 15.0K estimate US...
Commerzbank says China's August Services PMI rebound highlights some resilience in private-sector activity, but weak retail sales, soft inflation and higher unemployment still point to fragile domestic demand.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) retreats some 0.09% against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday as the latest US inflation report reaffirmed Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh's view that the labor market is "consistent with full employment." GBP/USD trades near the open at 1.3512.
DBS Group Research economist Chua Han Teng notes that Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) held the Overnight Policy Rate at 2.75% while dropping language that the current level is appropriate. DBS expects rates to remain unchanged through 2026 but sees risks tilted towards a one-off policy normalisation.
OCBC's Christopher Wong notes that strong foreign-currency inflows linked to the RBI's special measures have bolstered the Indian Rupee (INR) and strengthened the central bank's FX buffer.
President Trump is trying to solve a difficult economic problem in the beef market and in the process is creating another problem (nothing new honestly). US ranchers have been slaughtering cattle faster than they are rebuilding their herds. That has pushed the cattle supply to a 75-year low and sent beef prices higher...
Nordea expects Eurozone inflation dynamics to stay persistent, with headline inflation projected above the ECB's target at least until spring 2027.
Trump confirms that Kushner and Witkoff are headed to Moscow and Kyiv this weekend with a new proposal to end the war. We will have to see where that leads. Trump also says they may hit Pickaxe mountain very soon. Pickaxe Mountain is a heavily fortified underground nuclear facility being built by Iran inside the...
Cleveland Federal Reserve (Fed) President Beth Hammack said on Friday that the current monetary policy stance is not restrictive, emphasizing that inflation is too high.
ING's Muhammet Mercan notes the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) has normalised liquidity via weekly repo auctions, bringing effective funding costs down to the 37% policy rate.
AUD/USD resumes its advance on Friday after a brief bout of weakness following a stronger-than-expected United States (US) employment report.
Gold (XAU/USD) price retreats by about 0.80% on Friday, after registering losses of over 2% following the release of an upbeat US jobs report.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average trades just short of 53,400, roughly 325 points or 0.6% lower on Friday, after August Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) printed 162K against a 56K forecast at 12:30 GMT and pushed the probability of a September hike above 60%.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades around $66.20 at the time of writing on Friday, down 1.18% on the day, after recovering part of its sharp post-Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) decline.
EUR/USD sees sharp two-way price swings on Friday after a stronger-than-expected United States (US) employment report triggers fresh volatility. The pair initially fell to an intraday low of 1.1585 before recovering as the US Dollar (USD) struggled to sustain its gains.
Commerzbank's Commodity Research team, led by Barbara Lambrecht, notes that uncertainty over crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz and conflicting transit data are clouding the outlook for Brent.
Rabobank's Senior Macro Strategist Bas van Geffen expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to hike its deposit rate by 25bp to 2.50% next week and then hold at that level for an extended period.
Here is the latest rant from the President following today's jobs report: Great jobs number just announced, breaking all estimates (except mine!) by double and triple - And you haven't seen anything yet! EMPLOYERS ADDED 162,000 JOB IN AUGUST. Lower the interest rates because the U.S.A. is a much stronger credit than...
It's the final countdown to jobs Friday with both the US and Canadian numbers due up at the bottom of the hour. USD/JPY remains in focus as it's now more than 100 pips from yesterday's low and we had some more turbulence in Asia. I would imagine macro traders avoid that pair in the aftermath of the report. Otherwise,...
Commerzbank's Dr. Christoph Balz expects the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged, but highlights a significant risk of another 25 bps hike.
MUFG's Michael Wan highlights a sharp strengthening in the Japanese Yen, with USD/JPY dropping from 160 to around 155.30 as the Dollar broadly weakened and Asian FX gained.
The US Dollar (USD) is marginally up on Friday ahead of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for August, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.
Silver (XAG/USD) consolidates with marginal losses on Friday following back-to-back daily gains, as traders avoid taking large positions ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) holds minor losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, as the USD/CAD pair trades just above 1.3800 after bouncing from two-week lows at 1.3765.
How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events? Eurozone retail sales fall in July as consumer spending softens Stop making this mistake when looking at the economic calendar What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP? USD/JPY bounces near the major 155.00 support; pullback or the start...
ING's Chris Turner notes that dovish comments from Federal Reserve official Christopher Waller have pushed US yields and the Dollar lower, while supporting equities and high-yielding FX.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades marginally higher at around 0.7203 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday. The Aussie pair is broadly firm as the US Dollar remains under pressure, with traders reassessing Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate expectations.
Gold (XAU/USD) moves quietly on Friday after two straight days of gains, as traders appear reluctant to take fresh positions ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report at 12:30 GMT.
Rate hikes by year-end ECB: 46 bps (99% probability of rate hike at the next meeting) 2027: 73 bps BoJ: 42 bps (75% probability of rate hike at the next meeting) 2027: 111 bps Fed: 33 bps (50% probability of rate hike at the next meeting) 2027: 46 bps RBA: 30 bps (69% probability of rate hike at the next meeting)...
The British Pound (GBP) has retreated from session highs just below 1.3550 against the US Dollar (USD) during the London trading session, returning to levels near 1.3520 and turning negative on the daily chart.
Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey said on Friday that monetary policymakers have some discretion over how quickly they bring inflation back to target, while stressing that returning inflation to the target remains imperative.
Commerzbank analysts Norman Liebke and Michael Pfister report that the Bank of Canada kept its policy rate at 2.25% but adopted a more hawkish tone as inflation risks rise from higher energy prices and trade tensions with the US.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades flat at the $4,470 area on Friday, as the previous two days' rebound from $4,280 failed to find acceptance above the $4,500 psychological area.
OCBC's Christopher Wong notes that the Dollar Index (DXY) has eased alongside lower UST yields after Fed Governor Waller signalled a preference to keep rates unchanged in September if disinflation persists.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Friday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $66.67 per troy ounce, down 0.46% from the $66.98 it cost on Thursday.
Societe Generale strategists note that the Indian Rupee (INR) rallied to its strongest level against the US Dollar (USD) since late June, helped by active RBI intervention and sizeable FX mobilisation flows.
Full report here Retail sales in the Eurozone declined in July, pointing to softer consumer demand. The volume of retail trade fell by 0.6% m/m in July, reversing the 0.2% increase recorded in June. Across the broader European Union, retail sales declined by 0.4% after also rising 0.2% in the previous month. On an...
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, drops to near $88.65 while struggling to move above the $90 mark during the European trading session on Friday.
MUFG's Lee Hardman notes that the Japanese Yen (JPY) has strengthened sharply, pushing USD/JPY back towards the 155.00 support level that has held several times this year.
Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley highlights that the British Pound (GBP) is vulnerable as global bond market pressure focuses on high-debt countries facing elections or budget talks.
Eurozone Retail Sales contracted at a 0.6% pace Month-on-Month (MoM) in June, while they were anticipated to rise by 0.3%. June's data revised higher to 0.2% from -0.3%.
ING's Chris Turner writes that EUR/USD is grinding higher as markets reverse the earlier sell-off triggered by Kevin Warsh's speech, with the pair moving back toward 1.1650. A softer Dollar backdrop versus EMFX and pro-growth G10 currencies supports the Euro.
The GBP/USD pair attracts some buyers for the second straight day, though it lacks follow-through and remains capped near mid-1.3500s through the early European session on Friday.
The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to release the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for August on Friday at 12:30 GMT.
The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to release the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for August on Friday at 12:30 GMT.
Commerzbank's Tatha Ghose highlights a sharp Forint rally after a Bloomberg report suggested the National Bank of Hungary may pause rate cuts on 22 September and consider lowering its inflation target. While unconfirmed, this aligns with the bank's less dovish August message.
The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market's reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be...
The Euro (EUR) remains hovering between 1.1600 and 1.1630 against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, hardly affected by the release of a disappointing Eurozone Retail Sales report earlier in the day.
The Indian Rupee (INR) reflects strength against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, trading close to its two-month high of 94.29 posted the previous day.
The Indian Rupee (INR) jumps almost 1% higher against the US Dollar (USD) this week. On Friday, the USD/INR pair trades close to its two-month low of 94.29 posted the previous day.
RBNZ signals December, not October, for its next rate hike Diesel crunch, hot ISM data point to entrenched inflation risk: gold, equity risks JPMorgan flags a $103 bn yen short position, unwind could push USD/JPY to 142 Gold's week of whiplash sets up a payrolls-driven Friday PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for...
Japanese Household Spending July: -3.6% y/y, biggest drop since January 2024 expected -1.6% ,prior -3.3% --- September BOJ hike is near-fully priced (~87%), driven mainly by rising inflation and yields, not consumption strength. Weak household spending is a known, ongoing theme, not new information, and doesn't touch...
Deutsche Bank: The dollar is now leveraged to the AI race Vance: We're not talking to Iran unless they stop shooting at ships Preview: August non-farm payrolls by the numbers ISM non manufacturing PMI for August 55.4 versus 54.2 estimate. Stronger than expectations Feds Waller: Finally seeing some signs of...
Data due from South Korea, Japan and Singapore. These are not marked as priority items and unless something is way off expectations are unlikely to move markets too much upon release. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Commerzbank's Singapore-based team highlights robust Singapore manufacturing and electronics PMIs, supported by an AI-driven semiconductor cycle, alongside upgraded MAS Survey GDP and export forecasts.
United Overseas Bank (UOB) analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann see USD/CNH confined to tight ranges in different time frames. For the next 24 hours, they expect the Dollar to trade between 6.7130 and 6.7230.
The USD/CHF pair tumbles nearly 0.80% on Thursday as the US Dollar (USD) weakens on rumors of a potential intervention in the FX markets to boost the Japanese Yen. Consequently, the pair fell from around daily highs of 0.8131, extending its losses to the current exchange rate near 0.8065.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, slides below 99.00 to its lowest level in over a week on Thursday. At the time of writing, DXY trades around 98.90, down 0.67% on the day, after reaching 99.86 on Wednesday.
Gold (XAU/USD) rallies more than 2% on Thursday following dovish comments by Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller, who advocated holding rates steady if inflation data shows the disinflation process continues.
ING's Warren Patterson says European gas prices have climbed above EUR70/MWh as lower Persian Gulf LNG supply and strong Asian spot buying cut EU LNG imports by about 16% year-on-year between April and July.
What's expected: Consensus estimate +56K (range -25K to +121K) July -23K June +63K Private consensus estimate +45K Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 4.1% vs 4.1% prior Participation rate consensus 61.4% prior Prior underemployment U6 prior 7.9% Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.0% y/y vs +3.2% prior Avg hourly...
HSBC's Willem Sels highlights that accelerating AI adoption, resilient growth and broadening earnings are supporting global equities into Q4 2026. The bank has recently added exposure to global stocks, favouring the US and Asia, while keeping sector diversification.
The US Dollar (USD) has added to Wednesday's pullback, receding to multi-day lows and breaching below its key 200-day SMA.
BNY's Geoff Yu highlights strong Japanese Yen flows and a declining USD/JPY as markets hesitate to challenge Japanese and U.S. authorities. He argues that heavy post-intervention selling has largely run its course and that around 160 in USD/JPY now acts as a practical intervention ceiling.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) trades on Thursday near 53,750, up 1.3% and on track for its strongest session since early August, after a Federal Reserve (Fed) governor said he would be inclined to support holding rates at the September 15-16 meeting if the inflation data due over the next
Bank of England (BoE) Chief Economist Huw Pill reiterated on Thursday his support for raising the Bank Rate to 4%, arguing that policymakers cannot wait for uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict and energy prices to resolve before acting.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) rises against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday as Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller favors holding rates unchanged, shifting to a more neutral stance regarding monetary policy, while data showed that the US labor market is solid and that business activity impr
Societe Generale strategists highlight heavy USD/JPY turnover as the pair slid below its 200-day moving average, with leveraged accounts forced to cover shorts.
USD/JPY extends its decline for a second consecutive day and trades around 155.40 on Thursday at the time of writing, down 2.07% on the day.
Scotiabank's Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret highlight that the Euro (EUR) is higher against the US Dollar (USD), supported by strong euro area Producer Price Index (PPI) and firmer European Central Bank (ECB) rate expectations. Markets now price more than one 25bp hike by year-end.
EUR/USD attracts buyers on Thursday as a sharp rally in the Japanese Yen (JPY), softer United States labour-market data and a pullback in US Treasury yields weigh on the US Dollar (USD). At the time of writing, EUR/USD trades around 1.1622, up roughly 0.30% on the day.
Brown Brothers Harriman's (BBH) Elias Haddad reports the Swiss Franc (CHF) is the second-best performer today after the Japanese Yen as Swiss inflation surprised to the upside in August, reinforcing Swiss National Bank (SNB) hike expectations.
TD Securities' Ryan McKay and Bart Melek note that speculation of currency intervention and less hawkish Federal Reserve commentary have supported precious metals, with Gold moving away from nearby CTA selling triggers.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is modestly outperforming after a slightly hawkish Bank of Canada (BoC). Policy was left unchanged, but inflation risks were highlighted and December tightening is fully priced.
MUFG's Derek Halpenny highlights renewed Japanese Yen strength as markets price in more Bank of Japan hikes following recent comments from Takata and Ueda.
ING's Warren Patterson revises Oil forecasts higher, highlighting tight Brent and refined product markets as Persian Gulf exports remain around half of pre-war levels.
USD/CHF comes under selling pressure on Thursday as a sharp rally in the Japanese Yen (JPY) weighs broadly on the US Dollar (USD), while the Swiss Franc (CHF) draws support from stronger-than-expected inflation and growth data.
While speaking at the Reuters NEXT Newsmaker event in Washington, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday that if August Consumer Price Index data confirms inflation pressures are cooling off, he is inclined to support holding the policy rate steady at the September policy meeti
AUD/USD advances on Thursday, trading around 0.7215 at the time of writing, up 0.45% on the day.
Brown Brothers Harriman's (BBH) Elias Haddad observes USD/CAD is testing key support at 1.3800, where a break could open further downside. The Bank of Canada (BoC) delivered a hawkish hold, keeping rates at 2.25% but warning about increased upside inflation risks.
TD Securities' macro team, including Pooja Kumra, expects the ECB to raise the deposit rate by 25bp to 2.50% in September. They see limited forward guidance, with the Governing Council reiterating its data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach.
The US trade deficit widened significantly in July, with a sharp increase in imports and a decline in exports that could weigh on economic growth in the third quarter. The goods and services deficit rose to $88.6 billion in July from $71.2 billion in June. The increase was driven primarily by a surge in goods imports,...
According to a report from the US Department of Labour (DOL) released on Thursday, the number of US citizens submitting new applications for unemployment insurance rose to 206K for the week ending August 29.
BNY's Geoff Yu notes that Eurozone assets remain supported by steady composite PMI readings and improving signs in German demand, while speculation over ECB leadership succession grows.
Headlines: USD/JPY extends fall today in drop back below 158, what's next? Bond yields pull back from the highs as focus turns to US jobs report next WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis: Bears Favored Below $90 Gold upside remains limited by Fed rate hike risks and Iran war; traders await US CPI for next direction Nasdaq's...
GBP/JPY extends its steep decline on Thursday as the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens sharply across the board for the second consecutive day. The cross fell 1.13% on Wednesday and is down around 1.60% at the time of writing, trading near 210.60, its lowest level in a month.
Commerzbank's Michael Pfister highlights renewed weakness in the Japanese Yen as USD/JPY repeatedly breaks above 160 despite record FX interventions.
The Euro (EUR) is up 0.2% to near 1.1610 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Thursday.
The US Dollar (USD), as measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY), is showing signs of floor-building following a volatile month, as the heavy hedging pressure triggered by a dovish reading of the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting subsides.
ING's James Knightley argues Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech has shifted the Federal Reserve's reaction function toward a September rate hike, even though ING's macro projections suggest the Fed could wait.
According to the latest Reuters poll, the 65 economists surveyed have favored that the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise the deposit rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.50%.
Crude prices resumed their upside trend on Thursday after some hesitation on Wednesday, with the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate reaching session highs a few cents below $91.00 per barrel, almost 10% up on the week so far.
Brown Brothers Harriman's (BBH) Elias Haddad notes the US Dollar (USD) is softer mainly against the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc, with Brent Oil nearing $100.
Gold (XAU/USD) extends its rebound on Thursday after slipping below $4,300 to a nearly four-week low on the previous day. A sharp rally in the Japanese Yen (JPY) weighs on the US Dollar (USD), helping the precious metal regain ground.
Gold (XAU/USD) extends its rebound on Thursday after slipping below $4,300 to a nearly four-week low on the previous day. A sharp rally in the Japanese Yen (JPY) weighs on the US Dollar (USD), while a pullback in US Treasury yields provides additional support to the precious metal.
Gold (XAU/USD) extends its rebound on Thursday after slipping below $4,300 to a nearly four-week low on the previous day. A sharp rally in the Japanese Yen (JPY) weighs on the US Dollar (USD), while a pullback in US Treasury yields provides additional support to the precious metal.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is up 0.16% at around 0.5860 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Thursday.
EUR/JPY falls sharply on Thursday and trades around 181.40 at the time of writing, down 1.37% on the day. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens significantly against the Euro (EUR), supported by renewed warnings from Japanese authorities over foreign exchange market moves.
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading higher on Thursday, returning to levels above $4.400 after bouncing from three-week lows near $4,280 on Wednesday.
Societe Generale strategists note Swiss August Consumer Price Index (CPI) and second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) surprised to the upside, triggering profit-taking in EUR/CHF and USD/CHF but leaving Swiss National Bank (SNB) policy expectations unchanged.
The Euro (EUR) extends gains against a weaker British Pound (GBP) for the fourth consecutive day on Thursday, following downward revisions of both the Eurozone and UK Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) figures.
Derek Halpenny at MUFG notes the Canadian Dollar's (CAD) immediate advance after the Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.25% but signalled greater concern over inflation.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $65.88 per troy ounce, up 0.87% from the $65.31 it cost on Wednesday.
Japan's top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura reiterates on Thursday that authorities remain ready to act in the foreign exchange market, as Tokyo continues to closely monitor currency moves.
Commerzbank's Tatha Ghose notes that NBP Governor Adam Glapinski used G20 remarks to shift towards a more neutral, flexible stance, avoiding earlier dovish hints of imminent rate cuts. With August CPI surprising hawkishly and the Zloty underperforming CE3 peers, the bank is seen on the back foot.
USD/JPY extends its losses for the second consecutive day, trading around 156.80 during the European hours on Thursday.
United Overseas Bank's (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report AUD/USD dipped to 0.7122 before a strong rebound to 0.7176, leaving intraday price action in a 0.7140 - 0.7180 range. Downward momentum is fading and a break above 0.7190 would confirm 0.7120 is out of reach.
On Thursday, we'll get the latest read on the US service sector when the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) publishes its August gauge. Consensus points to a marginal improvement to 54.3 from July's 54.1.
On Thursday, we'll get the latest read on the US service sector when the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) publishes its August gauge. Consensus points to a marginal improvement to 54.3 from July's 54.1.
Fresh data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed the Services PMI improving to 55.4 in August from 54.1 in the previous month, coming in above prior estimates at 54.3 and signalling further pickup of momentum in the sector.
Chris Turner at ING notes that a near 1% drop in USD/JPY within minutes, followed by another slide, sparked talk of renewed Japanese intervention after the Bank of Japan's earlier $96 billion sales.
Silver price (XAG/USD) struggles to extend Wednesday's strong recovery move above $66.25 during the European trading session on Thursday. The white metal could remain sideways as investors await the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for August, which will be released on Friday.
Dow Jones futures gain by 0.18% to trade near 53,220 during European hours on Thursday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures advance by 0.16% to trade near 7,690, while Nasdaq 100 futures inch higher by 0.03% to trade around 29,200.
BNY's Geoff Yu notes that the July FOMC-driven Dollar hedging impulse has largely run its course, with early signs of USD buying returning against EUR, MXN and CAD.
A quick catch-up of the PMI prints that we got for today: Spain August services PMI: 57.8 (previously 58.3) Spain August composite PMI: 55.8 (previously 56.5) Italy August services PMI: 55.2 (previously 52.5) Italy August composite PMI: 53.6 (previously 52.5) France August final services PMI: 48.0 (previously 49.6)...
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, consolidates in a tight range around $88.85 during the European trading session on Thursday.
Danske Research Team reports that EUR/USD is around the 1.16 level while European government bond yields continue to climb and US yields show a mixed pattern.
ING strategists Francesco Pesole, Frantisek Taborsky and Chris Turner note that a sharp USD/JPY move briefly weighed on the Dollar, but only Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar held gains.
USD/CAD extends its losses for the second consecutive day. trading around 1.3820 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the pair is positioned within the descending channel pattern, signalling a bearish bias.
Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid notes that US equities stabilised after three consecutive declines, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.46% as strength in the Magnificent Seven, particularly Nvidia and Meta, supported the market.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) accelerated its recovery against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday's early European session, as Swiss inflation and economic growth data beat expectations.
The NZD/USD pair posts modest gains around 0.5855 during the early European trading hours on Thursday, supported by stronger-than-expected Chinese economic data. Attention will shift to the US August employment data, which will be released later on Friday.
Switzerland August CPI +0.4% vs 0.0% m/m expected (Prior -0.1%) Switzerland August CPI +0.8% vs +0.5% y/y expected (Prior +0.4%) Switzerland August core CPI +0.4% y/y (Prior +0.3%) The surge in petrol prices was the key factor driving up Swiss inflation in August, with that seen 25% higher compared to the same month a...
The USD/JPY pair remains under intense selling pressure for the second straight day and plummets to a nearly four-week low, around the 157.25-157.20 region during the early European session on Thursday.
Stock markets in the Asian region demonstrate a mixed performance as investors shift their focus to the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for August, which will be released on Friday.
Commerzbank's Charlie Lay and Dr. Henry Hao highlight a sharp rebound in the Japanese Yen, with USD/JPY dropping around 150 pips as markets react to increasingly hawkish Bank of Japan guidance and intervention speculation.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges down against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, following a narrowing trade surplus in Australia and fairly positive PMI data from China, a key trading partner.
United Overseas Bank's (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight that EUR/USD has shifted into short-term range trading between 1.1570 and 1.1610 after a dip to 1.1565 and rebound to 1.1608. They still see scope for a test of 1.1550 unless 1.1630 strong resistance breaks.
The GBP/USD pair trades in positive territory around 1.3490 during the early European trading hours on Thursday, bolstered by a weaker US Dollar (USD). Traders await the Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey's speech and US August jobs data later on Friday for fresh impetus.
The Euro (EUR) trades slightly higher against the US Dollar (USD) at around 1.1600 during the early European trading session on Thursday.
The Indian Rupee (INR) opens strongly against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, extending the rally to near 94.28.
The Indian Rupee (INR) opens strongly against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, extending the rally to near 94.28.
The Indian Rupee (INR) opens strongly against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, extending the rally to near 94.28.
The Indian Rupee (INR) trades strongly against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, extending the rally to near 94.28.
USD/IDR loses ground for the second successive day, trading around 17,730 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The currency pair experiences downward pressure as a sharp rally in the Japanese Yen (JPY) weighed heavily on the US Dollar (USD).
As we get into the second half of the week, the bond market continues to be a key spot to watch. The big story this week is how bond yields have surged to multi-year highs globally, with some even hitting multi-decade highs. In case you missed it: The tectonic shift that is taking place in the bond market The moves in...
The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, currently trades near 99.40 in the early European trading hours on Thursday. The DXY faces some selling pressure while US Treasury yields slipped from multi-year highs.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - the benchmark US Crude Oil price - struggles to capitalize on a modest Asian session uptick and currently trades just above the $89.00 mark, unchanged for the day.
Gold prices rose in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
EUR/JPY extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around 183.00 during the Asian hours on Thursday. Technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the currency cross remains within a symmetrical triangle, signalling a consolidation phase.
The GBP/JPY cross remains under intense selling pressure for the second straight day and drops to a three-and-a-half-week low, around the 212.75-212.70 region during the Asian session on Thursday.
Yen extends gains below 157.80 as BOJ hawks and less hawkish Fed voices collide WSJ reports Trump privately weighs declaring Iran war over (50,000 troops to keep options open) China's RatingDog services PMI beats strongly as domestic demand offsets soft export growth Oil popping higher as Kuwait reports missile and...
Gold (XAU/USD) is seen building on the previous day's goodish recovery from the $4,282 area, or a nearly four-week low, and gaining some follow-through positive traction for the second straight day on Thursday.
Gold (XAU/USD) builds on the previous day's goodish recovery from a nearly four-week low, and attracts some follow-through buyers for the second straight day on Thursday.
Gold (XAU/USD) maintains its bid tone heading into the European session on Thursday, though it remains below $4,450 amid mixed fundamental cues.
USD/CAD extends its losses for the second consecutive day, trading around 1.3830 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The currency pair experiences downward pressure as a sharp rally in the Japanese Yen (JPY) weighed heavily on the US Dollar (USD).
Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its Wednesday recovery move on Thursday, trading 0.67% higher at around $65.70 during the European trading session. The white metal strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) declines further due to moderate job demand in the United States (US) private sector.
The USD/JPY pair attracts some sellers to near 158.15 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) following hints from Japanese policymakers that interest rates will rise later this month.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is extending troop deployment timelines across the Middle East, signaling the conflict could drag into 2027, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday.
AUD/JPY extends its losses for the fourth consecutive day, trading around 113.50 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains subdued following a wave of mixed economic data from Australia and China, putting downward pressure on the currency cross.
The NZD/USD pair recovers some lost ground to near 0.5860, snapping the four-day losing streak during the early Asian session on Thursday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) following the upbeat Chinese economic data.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price rebounds after registering losses in the previous day, trading around $89.60 during the Asian hours on Thursday. Crude oil prices advance as investors assessed renewed hostilities in the Middle East alongside efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Today's RatingDog services beat completes the week's China data set and reinforces the pattern already seen in the manufacturing PMIs, private and export oriented surveys running hotter than the state weighted official readings. This divergence is worth tracking rather than resolving in either direction, since it...
The GBP/USD pair consolidates below the 1.3500 psychological mark during the Asian session on Thursday and remains close to a three-week low, touched the previous day.
The EUR/USD pair holds steady near 1.1590 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The potential upside for the major pair might be limited amid hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations and escalating conflict in the Middle East.
The combination of stronger growth and near record cost pass through is the key signal here for BOJ policy watchers, and Fiddes explicitly linked the data to a strengthening case for another rate hike. This is a yen supportive data point on its face, since it reinforces the narrative of accelerating domestic inflation...
US President Donald Trump said that while the US is prepared to strike Iran again at any time, he doesn't expect the renewed fighting to last "too long," Reuters reported on Wednesday.
AUD/NZD spent Wednesday pushing at a ceiling that has held since 2013, running from near 1.2100 to a high short of 1.2300 and trading just above 1.2250 into the European afternoon.
Gold price (XAU/USD) rebounds from a nearly one-month low to around $4,385 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The precious metal edges higher as the US Dollar (USD) and Treasury yields retreat from recent highs.
The Pound Sterling collapses versus the Japanese Yen as growing "speculation" of an intervention in the FX markets witnessed the Yen appreciating versus most G8 FX currencies. The GBP/JPY trades with losses of more than 1.10%, at 214.08.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised its policy rate on Wednesday and the currency fell almost 1.7% from top to bottom on the day it happened.
The Australian Dollar advanced on Wednesday versus the US Dollar after economic data in the US revealed the labour market weakened slightly, while the Greenback dipped on intervention speculation in the FX markets.
The Yen had its best session in weeks on Wednesday and it still looks like a losing position.
Sterling has spent Wednesday handing back the last of its August rally, with GBP/USD trading just under 1.3500 after a session low a shade beneath 1.3475.
The USD/CHF pair advances some 0.13% on Wednesday as the Greenback holds within familiar levels, after depreciating versus the Japanese Yen amid speculation of an intervention in the FX markets. This dragged the pair from around five-week highs to the 0.8120 area.
US stocks rise as small caps lead the gains EURUSD Technicals: Traders have done their ABCs in trading the EURUSD today. What do I mean? Fed Beige Book: Modest growth, moderate inflation The political headlines are fast and furious coming out of Washington Bitcoin technicals: The price of bitcoin is back below the...
The data release of note due today, Thursday, September 3, 2026, from the Asian timezone is the private sector services PMI survey from Rating Dog / S&P. Look back recap: this week's China PMI data Monday brought the official NBS releases for August. The Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8, up from 49.2 in July and...
Gold (XAU/USD) price rises over 1% on Wednesday as the Greenback softens amid speculation of an intervention to bolster the Japanese Yen (JPY), while US Treasury yields hold firm after weak US jobs data. At the time of writing, the XAU/USD pair trades at $4,373.
Commerzbank highlights that South Korea's export boom and a large trade surplus, combined with a hawkish Bank of Korea, are supportive for the Korean Won. They argue that changing FX flow dynamics should allow more of the surplus to translate into KRW strength.
US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the renewed campaign against Iran "won't continue for too long," adding that he is prepared to launch another attack on Iran.
There is a slew of headlines coming out of Washington as the Trump administration fights fires on multiple fronts. From beef prices to Chinese subsidies, Venezuelan oil, AI data centers and the bond market, officials are offering explanations, defending policies and touting hopes for what comes next. The common...
Just a little satire....; ) Trump on Truth Social is now posting: Now that we have it under U.S.A. control, should we change the name Hormuz Strait to TRUMP STRAIT??? Like America itself, it would be "hotter" than ever before! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP Why so limited? It is...
Headlines: The tectonic shift that is taking place in the bond market Gold futures are down more than 8%: Is the next dip-buying opportunity approaching? S&P 500 breaks through a major support as hawkish Fed expectations and US-Iran war weigh Wall Street poised for another soft start as higher bond yields continue to...
Another day, another story about vessels being struck down in the Strait of Hormuz. That as Iran continues to send a message that if the US continues to escalate tensions, they will hit back at where it hurts most. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is out again claiming that another two oil tankers have...
What is happening in the bond market in the past week is something that every trader and investor should stand up and take notice. While there is still a heavy focus on the US-Iran conflict, the stock market and AI, as well as central banks, the bond market might well be sending a big message to broader markets at the...
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than a couple of low-tier releases like Spain's unemployment change and Italy's PPI. The data won't change anything for the ECB, so the market reaction will be muted. As a reminder, the ECB is widely expected to hike at the upcoming...
RBNZ chief says rate settings still accommodative despite hikes Asian stocks slide as Iran conflict fuels oil and bond yield worries Australia Q2 GDP beats at 0.4%, keeps September rate hike in play RBNZ lifts OCR to 2.75%, says gradual tightening reduces risk of bigger hikes later BOJ hawk Takata says nimble rate...
The stronger than expected GDP print has pushed market pricing for a September RBA hike to 57 percent, up from 48 percent beforehand, while a November move remains more than fully priced. AUD/USD ticked higher on the release, trading above 0.7150, as the beat on both quarterly and annual growth reinforced the case for...
Australian Q2 GDP 0.4% q/q for a beat expected 0.3%, prior 0.3% 2.1% y/y, beat expected 1.8%, prior 2.5% Just the numbers this post. I'll have more to come on this separately, details and implications. Added, here is more: Australia Q2 GDP beats at 0.4%, keeps September rate hike in play In brief AUD should get a...
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